FOMC could trigger a very big rally in equities, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

Fed 금리인하/동결 관련 시장 반응에 대해 낙관. PCE 왜곡요인 감안 시 물가 하락 여지, 10년물 5%는 과거 수준으로 감내 가능하다고 봄. 이익 정점은 아직 아니며 주택투자 회복 여지 있음. 9~10월 조정 후 연말 강한 랠리 기대, 기술주(M7·소프트웨어) 주도, S&P 8200 도달 가능 전망. 중간선거는 단기 리스크이나 분점 구도는 증시에 우호적.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. It seems you agree with Rick. They will do so, but they shouldn't. Yes, I agree with Rick that this is probably a concession to market pressure, not something the Fed thinks is the best way to go. Goldman had a great study that shows four factors distorting the PCE index today. 1.7 percentage points are accounted for by portfolio management fees, flash memory, tariffs and energy.

02. In 6 months, even without Fed intervention, this indicator will fall by 100 basis points. So PCE should fall anyway . I'm not sure if the Fed really needs to speed up this process. But you're still pretty optimistic about how the market will ultimately react. Yes, and partly because of expectations.

03. You know, the market was expecting and taking a wait-and-see approach due to the rate hike. I think this rules out future increases, so the yield is falling. There's already a lot of pessimism, and people should remember that 25 basis points doesn't really hurt the stock market, but we have a lot of cash on hand, and we've been down for a lot of days in a row, so I think a very big rally could start.

04. 5% on 10-year bonds. That's a problem, isn't it? Well, round numbers are always a problem. We were at this level in 2023, and the economy didn't break. If we look back to 1930, in the range of 4 to 6%, the P/E ratio is positively correlated with higher returns. So, it can be argued that the P/E should increase to about 6% for 10- year bonds.

05. I think we don't like to see 5% because it's stressful, but history shows that the US economy can withstand it. What if, as I believe, as do some others, profits are peaking, and now that yields are rising again, that in itself calls the multiplier into question? Here lies another problem. How would you respond to that?

06. Well, there are a few points here. First, even if earnings growth or revisions slow, we still have 10% organic growth, so we should be approaching a P/E of 20. But investment in GDP, a significant portion of which is in housing, is depressed and not at a cyclical peak. Therefore , in my opinion, there is still an important lever— housing, that is, private investment, can grow significantly.

07. This could add $30, $40, $50 to peak profits. So, I believe we haven't reached peak profits yet. But we didn't see the significant pullback that you warned viewers about and that you thought could have been triggered by the Fed. So how do you explain all this? Well, the factors that make us expect a significant pullback are still there: the Fed's market test, margin debt, IPOs, leverage, but today pessimism reigns supreme, and I don't think markets are peaking on pessimism .

08. Therefore, I believe we are in for a significant rally by the end of the month. And when people become more optimistic, that's when these negative factors can manifest themselves simultaneously. Midterm elections? What risks do you think are associated with the midterm elections? This will be a period of risk aversion because people don't like binary outcomes , so they will just wait until the election itself.

09. But the political stalemate that markets are already pricing in —a Democratic takeover of the Senate and House of Representatives —is actually a good scenario for markets, as stocks typically perform better in deadlock conditions . And do you think this statement is still relevant? Yes, I think that after the midterm elections, because this year has been very difficult , and I know it has been difficult for the viewers, the fourth quarter could be one of the most powerful rallies, and I think it will continue into next year, becoming one of the biggest rallies of our lifetimes.

10. What is the real number you see, given that we are currently at 75-85 on the S& P as we speak? There is not much time left until the end of the year . Yes. What do you think is acceptable during this period? I believe we can easily cross the 8200 mark by the end of the year. And that's because the technology sector will bear the brunt.

11. The " Magic Seven" you mentioned today is starting to come to life. And software companies, which were important assets to retain, are showing better results. So as long as the AI ​​topic doesn't die down, and we don't expect it to—I think it will come out of this correction —we're looking at a strong rally by the end of the year.

12. So, the topic of AI is a key topic of conversation everywhere, especially after the events of this weekend. What do you think the consequences will be for the sector itself, if any? Well, this weekend was a reminder that AI is central to the growth of the US economy and the global economy. And I think it's entirely appropriate to be concerned about security issues, because it literally creates a new economy, as well as new ethical issues and challenges.

13. But we are really in good hands. These are very responsible companies, and I support the idea that maybe we should set ethical boundaries or limits on what's happening.