Jeremy Siegel and WisdomTree's challenge to the traditional 60/40 portfolio model

요약 보기

2020년 2월 WisdomTree가 전통적 60/40 주식·채권 모델에 도전하는 Siegel WisdomTree Global Equity 및 Longevity 모델 포트폴리오를 출시했다는 내용이다. Siegel 교수는 10년물 국채금리가 약 1.5%로 낮게 유지될 것이라고 보고, 이 환경에서는 60/40으로 충분한 소득을 얻기 어렵다고 주장한다. 은퇴 준비자에게는 주식 75/25 배분이 더 적합하다고 제시한다. 금리 하락의 원인으로 중앙은행 정책뿐 아니라 인구 고령화, 기대수명 증가, 위험회피 성향, 저성장 등 구조적 요인을 든다. 실질금리(TIPS 기준)가 마이너스이므로 배당주가 은퇴 시기의 새로운 채권 역할을 한다고 설명한다. 진행자는 S&P500 배당수익률(약 2%)이 10년물 금리를 웃도는 점을 언급하며 'TINA(대안이 없다)' 논리에 공감을 표한다. Siegel은 Markowitz의 현대 포트폴리오 이론에 도전하는 의미가 있다고 평가한다. 지난해 67개 글로벌 중앙은행 중 50곳이 금리를 인하했다는 점을 들어 추가 수익원 탐색이 필요하다고 주장한다. Schwartz는 포트폴리오 구성을 설명한다. 고배당주, 저PER 가치주, 다요인 분산, 글로벌 및 신흥국 비중 확대가 핵심이다. 이 모델은 아직 ETF가 아니며 TD Ameritrade 모델 마켓센터와 WisdomTree 자문가 포털을 통해 이용할 수 있다. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 미국채 10년물 금리는 장기적으로 낮게 유지된다는 장기 견해만 있다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I want to move on and talk about the the fast moving ETF business in general. Now last Thursday WisdomTree launched two new portfolios, model portfolios designed to challenge that traditional 60/40 stock bond approach. This is the Siegel WisdomTree Global Equity Model Portfolio, it's a mouthful, and the Siegel WisdomTree Longevity Model Portfolio developed in collaboration with our star here, Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of Finance.

02. Jeremy Jeremy Siegel, you're trying to address two persistent issues. Uh lower interest rates and low lower US equity returns, and you say the traditional 60/40 stock bond portfolio isn't going to cut it. Can you explain why? What's behind this? Well, it that that that's certainly true, Bob. Uh with yields at the levels they are and in my belief, and I've been saying this as you know on CNBC a long time, uh this environment of low interest rates is not going to change.

03. How is 1 and 1/2%, which is what the 10-year is right now, going to give you enough income? Uh the dividend yield is higher on the S&P 500. Our dividend weighted uh uh products are much higher, uh 2 and 1/2, 3, and some are even more, and they give higher return. We believe that the old 60/40 model just won't be able to cut it anymore.

04. Uh and that's why we recommend 75/25 as the equity fixed income allocation would be uh the best way for uh those approaching retirement uh to uh establish their assets to get enough income and gain so they can maintain spending through retirement. And and you believe, this is a very important part of the story, I think, lower interest rates are here to stay.

05. They're not some phenomenon of the last few years. That this is going to be I'm asking, this is going to be around for for a long time. If that's the case, stocks are definitely, in many cases, a lot more attractive. Yeah, uh absolutely. It's not One thing I should mention, it is not just the central banks that are setting interest rates down.

06. It is powerful demographic factors, aging of the population, longer life expectancy, risk aversion, uh slower growth. All these factors are going to keep these interest rates in these levels for uh very long, and uh you cannot survive on a 1 and 1/2% nominal interest rate. Look at the TIPS yield. The real interest rates are negative now.

07. So, it cannot maintain spending streams at all. Dividends on on stocks are going to be the new bond in terms of thinking about uh retirement. And Jeff and Jeremy, we've talked about this in in the past. I get emails from the viewers, essentially what Professor Siegel was saying, it's the TINA story.

08. There is no alternative. What do you want from me, Bob? I'm going to buy 1.6% 10-year Treasury yields? The S&P's yielding 2%. It does make some sense. If Professor Siegel is right, interest rates lower for longer, stocks are more attractive. It does, and you know, kudos to Professor Siegel and WisdomTree for coming out with this, but this really challenges Harry Markowitz.

09. Remember Harry Markowitz back in 1952? He created the modern portfolio theory. So, I think we do have to shake it up due to the interest rate environment, Bob. And right now this search for yield, I don't think it goes anywhere. Last year alone of the 67 global central bankers, 50 of them eased. So, I think when you continue to see this accommodative easy mode, you have to find additional yield somewhere else.

10. Can you tell us a little bit more, uh Jeremy Schwartz? Um what's in these port model portfolios? Presumably you're going to turn them into ETFs, is that right? I mean, where's this going? I mean, right now we're making these models available on the major model platforms. We announced from the TD Ameritrade conference last week.

11. You know, the TD Model Market Center is one of the big platforms where all these model portfolios are available. And the idea is really mirroring Siegel's two big books. So, Stocks for the Long Run was all about stocks having short-term volatility, but actually less long-term volatility compared to bonds, and that's upping your equity allocation.

12. The second book that I helped him on a lot was The Future for Investors, which married high dividends, low PE investing, what he called the DIV directives. And that's what's in these models. There's emphasis on high dividend stocks, low PE valuation stocks, multi-factor diversification where you're taking equity risk, you need to lower the risk within the portfolios.

13. Uh and there's also a heavy emphasis on being global and international, having a decent amount of emerging markets. We can't buy an ETF though, it doesn't exist yet, right? to go to the website, wisdomtree.com, and there's an a advisor portal where you can get the the allocations to these models, or for sure advisors on the TD Model Center.