저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 경기침체 우려가 있으나 과도한 공포는 이르며, 시장 반등은 추가 악재가 없을 때 이어질 수 있다. 거시 환경: 10년물 국채금리가 1.59%까지 급락해 채권시장이 경기침체를 경고하고 있으나, 고용과 은행 실적은 양호하다고 평가. 채권 시장 신호를 무시하지 말 것을 강조. 중국 및 글로벌 경기: 중국은 세계 2위 경제로 코로나19로 성장률이 5~7%에서 한 자릿수 초반으로 둔화될 수 있으며, 이는 유럽 등 전 세계로 확산될 수 있다고 우려. 중국 관련 매출 의존도가 높은 나이키, 스타벅스, 애플, 듀폰, 3M, GM 등을 리스크 요인으로 언급. 항공·여행: 항공 수요 위축과 크루즈선 격리 사례를 들며 항공주와 여행 관련 자산에 부정적 시각. 상품·원자재: 원유와 구리 가격이 하락 추세이며 수요 둔화 신호로 해석. 원유 관련주는 손상된 것으로 보고 정리 권고 가능성 언급. 개별 종목: 아마존(클라우드 호조, 사상 최고가), 마이크론·스카이웍스(경기민감 반도체) 등은 견조. 테슬라는 공매도 이슈 언급. 트윌리오는 회계 이슈 이후 사업이 양호하다고 평가. 리스크: 미국 내 코로나 사망자 발생, 버니 샌더스의 아이오와 승리 등 정치 리스크가 시장을 흔들 수 있음. 출연자 전망: 시장은 추가 악재가 없으면 강한 랠리가 가능하나, 악재 발생 시 재하락 가능성. 전반적으로 공포 과잉 경계, 단 확신은 보류.
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of lay America I'll do one my t's not just entertain but to educate teach you put in context call me one eight hundred seven four three CBC tweet me at Jim Cramer what day market up week because of the chronic virus worries then came roaring back when the World Health Organization reassured us that the outbreaks not that bad without ultimately gaining 125 points Esmee rising point three what was it and that's that convincing point to six percent so we didn't do address the elf in the room could we could we possibly inst be headed for a corona virus induced recession if we don't get this thing under control now the stock market has been saying no but my wife who just got back from a trip to Poland asked me that question a few minutes after she got settled when she's not writing one of those restaurants she works in real estate and we were looking at house she was stunned mortgage rates are back to three percent she has to the disease would shut everything down and that's why rates are so low stocks are singling prosperity at least today that's what I look at bonds are saving recession and that's what she book said I told her the economy is too strong for recession but then I hedged because I know that the gauge she looks at mortgage rates are priced off for Treasuries and the yield on the 10-year is now pummeled into one point five nine percent that rate said that rate screams recession the bomb Marcus gigantic we got to take it seriously it may be wrong but it's probably not that long I know employment fabulously won't growth is pretty good at the banks when they report it nevertheless you ignore the bomb market your own pearl I've known that since I started investing in 1979 if you don't watch the bomb market now we only have a handful of coronavirus patients in this country there's just one documented case of personal personal transmission and that was from spaz the spouse the Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex and as a czar was incredibly reassuring when comparing the disease to others he's fought when when a czar was asked about it this morning one squawk on the street he seemed pretty you know redoubtable I mean there was a sense that maybe worrying too much given the precautions that he's taking and his group is that's the way it kind of felt even though we gave her all she got when we were asking him questions but the more I thought about it the more I felt like perhaps the HHS Secretary was maybe he was too glib and I stand by that reaction even after the reassuring statement for the World Health Organization because the corona virus has a two-week incubation period issue now no and carriers can spread the disease before it can be detected doesn't matter if you put a thermometer to a person's head they could still be incubating you never know we're still allowing thousands of people from China to fire every day we haven't stopped those flights even though there's a chance the people one that might be sick or whether they know it or not secretary a czar says we're monitoring these travelers but other countries have taken more drastic action Russia shut down its portal with China Australia's quarantining there evacuate on the island a lot of nationally owned airlines are spending flights China's imposing a rigid quarantine on more than 50 million of its own people that that's something I got to worry about if someone dies of this disease here heaven forbid if someone's his eyes from just dies from this disease the United States then I think the averages will get hit again but that's not the main reason the bomb market's freaking out here's the real issue China is the second largest economy in the world when you start talking about coordinated off because of health care concerns you better believe that's going to slow down this incredible growth engine maybe China China GDP growth slips from they have five to seven percent down to low single-digit it's not that they will tell the truth about it but you can surmise it when you consider that we still have tariffs on 375 billion dollars with the Chinese exports and companies keep pulling out the country to avoid them well you layer on the outbreak and I think you've got the makings of a very fragile number two economy and any slowdown in China will spread to the rest of the world almost as fast as this illness throw in supply disruptions and you've got an economic disaster I guess I mean I'm not gonna deny it I'm over that mean to Nike Starbucks to Apple they sell big there we know Starbucks is already closed half of its stores in China investors keep fleeing the stock in droves even though I think that's wrong how can industrials that depend on China big companies that you know you all heard of DuPont 3m recover from their disappointing quarters for this albatross around their neck what would it mean for all the big car companies and selling the People's Republic especially the Germans but also of course GM and that's the key here China is not just exported a virus it could potentially exported super slow down Europe's our biggest trading partner and with this a major internal part gene their growth is going to slow just when I thought that the banks there we're getting their footing second problem there are some cracks in our own economy a one of the most visible travel where people canceling actually of course coming to Asia but right now 6,000 people are strange dough on a Carnival cruise ship off the coast of Italy because of a suspected case of the corona virus the stocks been weak and it stayed down even after the average is rebounded I don't see how it can bottom in this environment it's reasonable expect the air traffic over all will be curtailed to because of passengers worrying that every plane could be gigantic engine bay if this disease there wouldn't be such a run on face mass mind don't come until february 10th if people were concerned about close quarters although honestly the mass probably won't protect you however those worries because everything's cut in either order could be premature today CNB c--'s own fill the boat was asked if there's anything klein and travel in the united states because of the virus and the answer defenders no I mean that's reassuring but we have to think about what could happen not what's happening right now the moment heaven forbid again someone who didn't go to China dies from this disease in America well then I'd be worried about the malls the restaurants really any gathering place that could become a ghost towns third stocks are painting what I would call a mix picture on the one hand slowdown stocks like Mondelez this back maker and coca-cola are flying order pretty good numbers I mean pretty good you have to wonder how much of that is to do with recession fears that's where you go to you gravitate to those I think the businesses are good but the tale one might be a worldwide slowdown on the other hand Amazon just reporter after the closed and they totally knocked it out of the park stock up more than 200 points so all-time high Amazon stock says no slowdown if anything it says well how about an acceleration the Web Services was good I mean maybe the acceleration did you know the expense of some other guys but it's acceleration IBM's up to it Ginni Rometty and now she's stepping down a CEO be replaced by the man who has led their cloud strategy Arvind Krishna with gym leaders newly bought Red Hat being named president they're all going all-in clouded Ibn and who could blame them after both Microsoft and Amazon crushed it in the cloud last thing tonight respectively fourth issue the commodities they're rolling over heads it's not crashing that's in sync with the bonds well demand is slacking and oil can't rally in any scenario last that world touch one of the better producers severely disappointed produces buy back next time is down 7% four twenty twenty five point four percent you never thought I'd see that high yield no one seems enticed freeport-mcmoran the giant mineral company stocks down thirteen percent since the European deal coppers down eleven straight days that says recession of course there are also plenty of companies like Amazon that are singling the opposite Apple sales are incredibly strong same goes for Microsoft and of course Tesla on that later but the economic sensitive semiconductor plays like micron sky works it didn't rollin over it may be a good number from compadre Western Digital reverses those declines that happened about an hour ago now here's the truth about these slowdown fears only a handful of companies have really reported weaker quarters boasted reported good some have reported excellent if we get the coronavirus under control well we just get some certainty that China's got to contain or even that the wave has peaked well then you could see an extension of today's magnificent late afternoon rally so I think it would be a mistake to do much more than a reposition out of oil and well related stocks because I think they are impaired I'm betting we can get through this with only a few Nicks perhaps accentuated by Bernie Sanders win Iowa that could scare people but this Bernie's proudly anti wealth and that's not great for the stock market but we're gonna get into control I feel confident but let me just give you some perspective little off the radar screen when my wife Lisa was flying back from Krakow in Poland after telling the funeral of a good friend what a plane they were literally dozens of Holocaust survivors and their families specifically outfit survivors who were there to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Nazi concentration camps liberation she talked to many of the survivors and their families including a woman who was literally born there in the camp December of 1944 yep hidden underneath some paper baby who lived the Ramat who lived a reminder of a real triumph I think it puts everything in perspective bottom line I think we can sell off again if we get more bad news than the coronavirus fund again a death here in the US would hurt the stock market but the earnings are looking good and in the scheme of things maybe the outbreak is not the end of the world one bit of good news about the coronavirus and we could have a real run but we need that news before we can get real aggressive charlie and vermont charlie yes hi you go to you Jim right back at you listening to you I have been listening to you for over 10 years and a first-time caller also a member of the Action Alerts Club yes the club go ahead I'm sorry I'm sorry Jim thank you for all you have done for me and my family and especially for my young grandchildren there you go I have made lots of lots and lots of money from you Jim thank you to you of course and my question is about Marvel technologies you're a marvel yeah ok so I said my video today Catherine once asked me is why some videos I do for Action Alerts they look the stocks didn't come down it's it just soared to 28 it's been a wild one it goes up down up down but all the way it's going to be up big so just hold on and if it goes below 24 I want you to aggressively as you can let's go it's a great 5g play let's put a rod in New York rod hey Jim how you doing I am good I just got off the phone with Charlie of Vermont he was so complimentary I'm soaring right now what do you got okay I have a steak actually oh and earnings are coming out yes so much competition and a juggernaut like Microsoft in the cloud business is that something to worry about are we still early I would say they're complimentary I mean I learned to code out of Twilio I travel trust has position in it I will it candidly admit that that last interchange we had with Twilio was a with Geoff Lawson was a bad one if you remember but he came on the show and said listen the accounting issues not going to happen again and business is good is it this man has put his neck on the line and I'm going with Jeff but I guess mine could get cut off too listen up I know you're scared of a slowdown because of the Corolla miners but I think we're gonna get through this you of me only just dicks and let's keep everything in perspective remember the story about my wife oh man money tonight this is where the love of the game and money making like making money intersect I'm checking out stocks to be served as your portfolio's tight ends and no it's not sad Gerdes then I'm dissecting Tesla's block we're getting to the bottom what Yuma shorts fast and furious valid Texas capital in the Bennet bank are merging to create a super regional it is so cheap well why don't you listen to both of them and you'll know judge cnbc.com you
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