저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 우려로 인한 시장 조정은 체계적 위기가 아닌 글로벌 둔화이며, 아직 주가에 충분히 반영되지 않았으므로 성급한 매수는 피해야 한다. 시장 상황: 다우 254포인트 하락, 나스닥 1.89% 급락. 중국 전역 봉쇄 시 기업 실적 타격 가능성 우려. 플루 비교: 올해 미국 독감 사망자 약 8,200명으로 중국 사스 사례보다 많지만 경제 전체가 멈추지는 않았다는 논리로 코로나19 공포를 상대화. 금융 리스크: 2008년 금융위기 같은 체계적 위기와 구분. 채권 수요 증가로 금리 하락 → 은행 이익 감소 우려. 종목 분류 - 중국 노출 직격탄: 중국 주식 전반 회피, 알리바바는 낮은 가격대에서만 재검토. 스타벅스·애플·나이키·엔비디아·얌차이나 등 파생 중국 노출주는 실적 하향 전까지 피하라. 마카오 노출 카지노주(라스베이거스샌즈) 회피. 여행주: 사스 당시 25% 하락 선례 참고, 버티기보다 실적 추정치 하향 위험 고려. 로열캐리비안은 PER 12배로 아직 이르다. 제조·산업: 캐터필러, 보잉, 3M, 유나이티드테크놀로지 등 중국 매출 의존 기업은 실적 발표 전 관망. 방어주 선호: 주택·식품·제약(바이오 포함)·소셜미디어 중 일부, 넷플릭스·컴캐스트·디즈니 등 홈엔터 관심. 디즈니는 테마파크 리스크를 감안해도 매력적이라 언급. 시장 기술적 상황: S&P 오실레이터 아직 과매수, 충분한 조정 없이 반등 전 추가 하락 가능성. 몇 주간의 매도세 대비 필요. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 후 바닥 확인 전까지 신중, 여러 주에 걸친 추가 매도 가능성 시사. 리스크: 코로나19 확산 장기화, 중국 봉쇄 확대, 실적 하향, 금리 하락에 따른 은행 실적 악화.
다듬은 글
hey I'm Kramer welcome to may have money welcome to crave America I'll be one make friends I'm just trying to save you some money my job isn't I just entertain but to educate and put this all into context so call me at one eight hundred seven per three CBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer are we dealing with systemic risk here or simply a global slowdown that has yet to be priced into the stock market after day with the Dow lost for 254 points as to be plunged one point five seven percent Nasdaq plummeted point one point eight nine that's a big decline know what I'm still betting on the latter which is not as disastrous that's the form however I also think that the risk of a slowdown based on a decline in expected profits isn't fully baked in yet if China ends up doing a full shutdown of their economy by telling people to stay away from work or just stay at home that could be very bad for business even if it might be necessary to stop this virus well before we get to the negatives let's take some systemic risk issues off the table what makes me so confident that this coronavirus won't totally wreck the market after this big run maybe cause a huge decline well think about the flu yeah in flu influenza is a terrible disease so far this flu season in our country it's already affected 15 million people 15 million people of these a hundred and forty thousand have been hospitalized eighty two hundred people in our country have died from the flu this year way more people have died from the flu in America than have died from the Carano fires in China yet the flu doesn't shut down our whole economy obviously if everyone had to go to the emergency room all at once we would not be able to handle it but know the numbers people they matter now we know the Chinese government did its best to cover up the SARS outbreak in 2003 and while that didn't spread as easily as this court rotavirus it was much more lethal SARS didn't shut down their whole economy though the convert' pictures of hospital scenes they may have seen they're awful but you know our hospitals can pretty be pretty bad too I almost wonder if China's being overly cautious with these quarantine eighteen major cities can they bring in all the medicine they need that would would it be better just to scream more intensely either way China shared their genome sequencing of the virus with the rest of the world I have a following the data through The Lancet they're doing their best put it all together and I wouldn't be surprised if someone can come and cook up with a vaccine they can do it or at least some medicine that can slow the spread of this disease I am hopeful about that I think the possibly they've all wear masks and gloves when were in public is pretty far-fetched but even if that happens we'll get through it to me this is nowhere near as frightening as the o bola scare although even in West Africa the source of the outbreak dr.
mark Bristol then the CEO of Rheingold came on the show and told us you could still do business in that epicenter as long as you didn't shake hands that's all it took with the coronavirus you get some Purell you get some quark swipes you keep your arms to your sides okay you don't touch your face then you will probably be fine that's right that's what it requires oh and if you haven't gotten your flu shot yet please you should make sure to get one even if just to be able to tell help medical authorities know that you have contracted the corona virus that's what I would tell you if you had the flu shot could this outbreak caused the temporary slowdown sure more on that later but business won't grind to a halt which is what happened with the systemic risk issues remember the last time we had real systemic risks in this country was during the financial crisis when mortgage Mannion point out a host of gigantic banks annular destroy the economy if say half the country came down with the flu or far-fetched right that would be bad for business you'd see a lot less consumer spending but it wouldn't cause huge companies to go bankrupt and it wouldn't shut down the financial system in short this outbreaks not the end of the world although it could still be pretty bad so why don't we do some triage sure all right first there are stocks that are right in the blast zone all right they're way too toxic down here because you have no idea how they'll do now I'm going to include every single Chinese stock in this category I like the pension see picking in some high quality like maybe Alibaba at much lower levels because their e-commerce play and epidemics will cause more people to spice up online but you need money to spend to buy things and it's hard to make money when you're cities under quarantine so let's just take those off we're not going to buy any of those sorry no need no need second well there are the derivative stocks that rely on Chinese spending for the growth here I want you to think Starbucks Apple Nike Nvidia yum China these names all deserve some kind of coronavirus haircut because they're on the verge of reporting it unless they can reassure us the Chinese spending will continue on the same trajectory their stocks will get slammed now you know what I happen to like every one of these stocks but it doesn't matter at this red-hot minute same goes for the casino companies with big macau exposure like when in las vegas sands their numbers need to come down so hard that you simply can't own them here as opposed to the derivative ones i just mentioned third we got the travel stocks well those went down about 25% during the SARS epidemic 17 years ago you have to use that as a benchmark don't try to tough them out because we are no one here to be there think estimate cuts forth well there are companies that will be hurt by a worldwide slowdown not destroyed but hurt and that includes many manufacturers like caterpillar you saw that tip today which rely on China for business I would say Boeing but that's already so convoluted it's hard to tell 3m reports tomorrow III and I don't know how they can forecast China let's listen to them same with United Technologies they report tomorrow morning I'm gonna be doing a lot of work on both these companies and I'll report tomorrow night to say here's how they're going to contain the narrative worries about a worldwide slowdown I mean people will buy Treasuries and when people buy Treasuries interest rates go down lower long-term rates translate to lower earnings for the banks which is why they've been coming down so hard financial technology companies that rely on volume could be cut but I'm not as worried about these now you need a lockdown like they have in China to shut down retail although I can see plenty of people just staying at home and yes ordering from Amazon how about the commodities and minerals too much economic exposure stay away what's left well we're back to the domestic stocks housing food drugs including biotech and social media it's gotten careful the drugs because we keep hearing that Bernie Sanders is surging in the polls and he obviously is no fan of the drug companies I like Home Entertainment like Netflix I like Comcast I like Disney yeah I know they have China exposure but I like it this is your chance to buy some China is not as important as the rest of their franchises and by the way if we really have an outbreak here yes theme parks will go down it's happened before but I've been waiting for chance to get into this topic or recommended to you for a long time my choppa chosen for 40 points this might be it Disney works now late on the show I'm gonna have a list of 7 stocks that I think can be bought right now none of the ones I just mentioned can be bought right now I'm just trying to prep you in the same way I told you to sell a lot of stuff last week that is going down now of course because we're taking systemic risk off the table even the groups that are coming down what we worth buying when they go low enough you can't be too eager though about buying anything after you figure out the pecking order of what's worst to best give them the possibility of a multi-week sell-off I keep coming back to this week two years ago when we got a hot unemployment number the trigger of bizarre VIX unwind which crushed the stock market right at a Super Bowl we had to get to a very oversold position before we bounced and after today's session shockingly we're still overbought on that S&P oscillator I follow although it's just by a smidge bottom line I wish I could be more hopeful here I would have to be more constructive but it's been ages since we had a big sell-off many people have been just ride and ride they don't even know what one looks like investors seem too eager to want to buy everyone I heard today was talking about an opportunity for action where's plus.com Club members they know we are still looking for things to sell want to bounce Stephano in New York Stephano a big booyah to you Jimmy till how are you I am doing well it chills do it what's up I'm talking about my question is about V I a CE Viacom CBS I own the stock at $40 and 70 cents well remember it doesn't if we don't care where it came from we care what's going to now these guys better do a very good job of saying where the earners have come from because it is the cheapest stock one on earnings estimates in the entire S&P 500 now that's one of the reasons why the club why would I recommend it to the club it has not panned out it has actually been my were stopped sometimes you have to own that I did not expect it to be this bad why is it this bad because a lot of people feel it's the ultimate court cutting negative stock I think it's better than that so far I'm wrong let's go to Robert a South Carolina Robert Jim thanks for taking my call sure everything you do for us thank you question question the coronavirus travel stocks taking a hit my question is about Royal Caribbean RCL would this be a time to get in as a short term trade at this point it would seem early too early and I'll tell you I'm something you mentioned Royal Caribbean that is such a well-run company but let's look at it 12 times earnings let's wait till Goods the only down 12% for the year but we've been saying is these stocks did go down 25% three stars so you've still got some work to do maybe we even catch this one with the three and a half four percent yield so no Harry that's the key thing people because we haven't been down for so long everyone's in a hurry to buy do a little bouncy sell a little to buy a little it's not gonna hurt you will get to the point where I'm going to say it's not it's too late to sell we're not there yet right this isn't systemic risk what you mean I would tell you there anytime if you need money in the next five years yourself it's not it's a global slowdown that has yet to be priced in the stock market correctly don't be too eager about anything just yet even for a trade oh man tonight the big game is just the way is just days away so I'm taking off a week-long celebration to Sunday kickoff by crafting two of the most important players on my roster find out which tickers I'm picking leave your portfolio to victory even though we know what's going on with the virus then but the market tumbling as coronavirus juicers escalate what could you buy well I'm leaving my take and oil gas stops you getting crushed but could the sector regain some energy hey you know what let's go off the charts find out
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