저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 금본위제 복귀 가능성은 낮고, 미국 달러의 기축통화 지위는 장기적으로 약화될 수 있으나 당장은 아니라고 본다. 금·은 본위제 역사: 역사적으로 국가들은 가용 자원으로 통화 체계를 만들었고, 미국도 한때 은본위였다. 금·은 본위제는 실물자산 기반이라는 장점이 있으나, 정치인들이 불리할 때 규칙을 바꾸면서 지속되지 못했다. 디지털화폐: 디지털 화폐는 결국 도입될 것이며 중앙은행은 이를 선호한다. 다만 정부의 감시 가능성이 커 장기적으로 문제가 될 수 있다고 본다. 미국 달러 전망: 달러의 기축통화 지위는 수십 년간 강했지만 끝날 가능성이 있다. 역사적으로 기축통화는 100~150년 이상 지속된 적이 없다. 이번 달은 아니지만 장기적으로 약화될 것으로 보며, 본인도 달러를 많이 보유하고 있으나 대체 통화는 찾지 못했다고 밝힘. 미국 시장과 금리: 미국 증시는 14년간 장기 상승했고 신규 투자자 유입 등 과열 신호가 보여 끝에 가까워지고 있다고 본다. 아직 공매도는 하지 않았다. 연준이 금리를 올렸지만 역사적으로 높은 수준은 아니며, 시차 효과로 향후 금리가 더 오를 수 있다고 전망. 시장은 상승과 하락을 반복하는 순환적 패턴이라고 봄. 정책 당국 비판: 연준과 정책 담당자들은 학계·관료 출신으로 인플레이션이 재발하면 다시 금리를 올릴 것이라고 비판. 원자재 관련: 우라늄을 보유 중이며 원자력은 석탄보다 저렴하고 효율적이라고 봄. 달러 약세 시 귀금속 수요가 늘 수 있다고 언급. [출연자 전망 요약] 달러 장기 약세 가능성, 미국 증시 후반 국면, 금리 추가 상승 가능성.
다듬은 글
the countries or civilization usually use what they have there was a lot of silver in the Middle East so they used silver like was in the U.S they had a lot of silver so they the original monetary system was based on Silver and then they started discovering gold and all the gold miners said no no no we should use gold as the monetary base so they changed U.S dollars probably starting to come to the end not this month don't worry not this month but it was very strong for a long time according to veteran investor Jim Rogers throughout history countries and civilizations have used their available resources to create their monetary systems this is because money is essentially a medium of exchange and it needs to be universally accepted and have a relatively stable value he believes there have been attempts to establish metal-backed currencies like gold or silver standards but they often face challenges and only last for a short time gold and silver-backed currencies bring forth notable advantages due to their Reliance on tangible assets to uphold the value of a country's currency nevertheless these currencies have their drawbacks a significant concern arises from politicians frequent reluctance to conform to the strictures imposed by such standards this resistance intensifies when faced with adverse circumstances compelling politicians to amend established rules Rogers believes this historical pattern of altering regulations during difficult situations has consistently eroded the viability of gold or silver-backed currencies as stable and dependable systems regarding the U.S Dollar's role as the world's primary International currency Roger suggests its dominance might end he emphasizes that historically no currency has lasted more than 100 to 150 years as the world's primary Reserve currency while the US dollar won't be replaced as the world's Reserve currency overnight a concerted effort to eat into its dominance can erode the greenback's place and cause fundament shifts in the financial system if America wants to stay on top the U.S can't take the dollar status for granted now let's watch excerpts from Jim Rogers interview with resource talks before we start smash that subscribe button and remember to enable post notifications to stay updated on our latest uploads thank you and enjoy the video we haven't had a gold standard or metal standard for a long time uh the history shows people periodically have tried metal standards or some metal backed currencies you know the U.S was founded on a currency that was backed by silver and for 100 years or so it was basically a silver based economy if you go to parts of the Middle East they still have much more confidence in silver than they do in other metals so this is not a new thing that the world has tried something a real asset to battle currency maybe we will try again but the problem with gold or silver back currencies is they're problems and they never last because they're problems the main problem is when things get tough because gold causes discipline to politicians with politicians don't like discipline so they change the rules and it's easier to change the rules and that's why gold has never really been a successful long-term backer of currencies nothing has been I'm sure we're all going to have digital currency eventually if you go to China now you can't take a taxi with money you have to use your phone their phone money you can't buy an ice cream in China with with friend Mindy you have to use your phone money they're ahead of the rest of us everybody's working on it I'm sure yeah I'm sure we're going to have digital money in the future central banks love it it's cheaper they don't have to print it or transport it or anything and more important they know everything you do Antonio they know if they're going to call you up one day and say you've been drinking too much tea this month stop drinking so much tea because they'll know everything you do they love it that's not good for you and me but it's good for them but it's coming it will certainly come for a while then something else will change but no I certainly see digital government digital money in our future and how do you use that then again I guess to repeat a question from earlier how do I use that knowledge to my advantage if it eventually is going to turn to digital currencies what does that mean for a portfolio what does that change for me well you might want to show it to people who print paper money but it's not going to have that much change on you you're probably going to leave and many people at least for a while we're going to think it makes their life better because all they have to do is go on their phone and pay their bills or check their bank or whatever many people are going to find it wonderful then they're going to realize oh my gosh those people in the government know everything I'm doing and they might not think it's so much fun after a while but from the beginning anyway we're all going to think it's great no it is it's me a lot but not I'm not going to think it's great because I know the consequences the US dollar is the world's major currency the world's International medium exchange for many many reasons it has been for a few decades uh that may be probably coming to an end nothing has lasted more than 100 150 years we've had many International currencies throughout history and US dollars probably starting to come to the end not this month don't worry not this month but it was very strong for a long time I own a lot of US dollars I can see that it's going to have problems I don't know what's going to compete with the US dollar I don't know what's going to replace the US dollar if you know please don't announce it send me an email because I want to buy it myself and I don't see anything on the horizon you would think that the Chinese or in Mindy would be the currency but it's still a blocked currency so you cannot have an international currency that's blocked so I don't know what's going to compete with a dollar in the future I look every day I assure you I do own US Dollars they've been very strong for a while I worry about that but I'm not sure where I should put my money I do have some written menu I do have a few other currencies but I don't know the answer discussing the current state of the U.S markets Rogers highlights that historically the U.S markets have yet to experience such a prolonged period of growth spanning 14 years while this extended period could indicate that the end might be approaching the U.S federal reserve has raised interest rates substantially from their previous levels to combat inflation however these increases remain comparatively modest historically Rogers believes that this is in line with the existence of lag effects throughout history which means that there is often a delay between when interest rates are raised and when they significantly impact the economy regarding Market fluctuations Rogers highlights that markets typically exhibit a cyclical pattern of ups and downs rather than continuous linear movements the current Corrections and inflation concerns are a normal part of Market Behavior he critiques the decision-making of those in charge of monetary policy referring to them as bureaucrats and academics who might panic and raise interest rates again if inflation returns let's get back to the interview speaking of the U.S market the US markets never had such a long a period 14 years now so historically we must be coming to the end but that doesn't mean it has to ever end maybe they'll go on another 14 years in my view there are signs that were coming towards the end I'm not selling short yet but I can see you know we have a lot of new people coming into the market they call their friends and they say I've discovered this new theme thing called the stock market and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money and everybody's very excited you know some stocks go up every day these are this I've seen all of this before these are signs that we're getting towards the end it's not the end yet but we're getting there there are Lag effects just throughout history again this is not an opinion just look it up and we are having a lag effect but the U.S is not right I mean they've raised interest rates a lot from where they were but historically they're not up a lot I mean five percent is not a gigantic interest rate in the U.S in 1970s we had a big big big inflation problem the interest rate on short-term treasury bills government treasury bills was 21 that's not the typo 21 percent interest rates now or five or six percent I don't know how high they're going to go before this is over but I know that we've printed staggering amounts of money and by the way in in 1980 the U.S was a creditor Nation still now the U.S is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so I would suspect that before this is over not in July not this week this month but before this is over interest rates will be much higher markets go like this they go up they go down they go up they go down they don't go straight up or straight down so what's happening now in the U.S in my view is just a normal Market things are correcting inflation's correct them you know they're not very smart people they're all academics and bureaucrats they think that they've solve it that they did it that they've solved a problem and things are okay but when in inflation comes back when the numbers when we have arise again they will panic and raise interest rates again these are bureaucrats and academics these are not smart people that's why that's why they work for the government I own uranium but in uranium is atomic inner nuclear power is certainly cheaper and more efficient than Coal Power for instance if you do it right I mean if you have an accident you don't want to have nuclear energy but as long as nuclear energy is handled properly and is safe it's much cheaper it's more efficient and everything else than cold or something else I mean the world's only had a couple of gigantic nuclear power accidents in the last 100 years they were bad they were disastrous but two out of 50 years or so is not a bad record I'm not suggesting you run out and build a nuclear power plant I'm just saying that nuclear energy is efficient and cheap while gold and silver-backed currencies have advantages due to their tangible value they often struggle to maintain stability over time Additionally the long-standing dominance of the U.S dollar is the world's primary Reserve currency might be reaching its limits if the dollar declines it could lead to increased demand for precious metals what are your thoughts on the future roles of precious metals in the U.S dollar in shaping Global monetary systems please share your thoughts in the comments section below if you found this video informative remember to give it a thumbs up subscribe to our Channel and enable notifications to stay 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