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As governments continue to devalue currencies, this can lead to absurd prices. But it's simply a fact: governments will print more money and reduce the value of paper money. This means that gold and silver will rise, and politicians will continue to do so. Hello, welcome to BullionStar. I'm Claudia, and today we're pleased to welcome one of the most respected and experienced investors in the world, Jim Rogers.
Jim , our viewers really enjoyed our conversation last October and have been messaging me asking me to invite you back. So, thank you very much for joining us on the channel again. Claudio, I'm very happy to be here. I made many mistakes, but maybe today I will try to minimize them. So, Jim, I'd like to start our conversation today by talking about precious metals, of course.
Since our last conversation, the precious metals market has been in an extraordinary period. At the end of January, gold and silver soared to historic highs. They adjusted sharply, and recently jumped again. We also witnessed the start of a war with Iran, which added another major source of uncertainty to the markets.
Jim, you've been through some extraordinary commodity cycles in your lifetime. What do you think these dramatic movements in gold and silver tell us? Well, as you know, I own gold and silver. I've bought some more since we last met. Not much, but I bought something. When gold and silver fall in price, I try to buy more.
I never want to sell my gold and silver, Claudius. I want my children to get my gold and silver someday. Put them in the closet. Put them under the bed. Put them somewhere . And everyone should have some gold and silver. Jim, do you think these shifts in precious metals markets over the last 10 months or so have fundamentally changed investor attitudes towards them?
Over the past few days, weeks, and months, precious metals have risen sharply in price. So yes, someone, Claudio, maybe it's you, but someone is buying them in large quantities. And I expect this to continue . I expect that for the rest of your life, for the rest of my life, gold and silver will only increase.
Jim, I know you sometimes like to carry bullion or coins in your pocket during interviews. So I brought a few of my favorites too: the Canadian gold maple leaf and the American silver eagle. You said you own gold and silver. I'm curious why you own both, and what purpose each serves for you? Why both?
I don't know why both. I mean, both have been valuable for hundreds of years. You remember Jesus Christ, Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. This has been going on for many, many, many hundreds of years, ever since gold and silver have been valued. And I hope that the rest of my...I know that for the rest of my life, gold and silver will be valuable.
That's why I own them, because I know that at the very least , no matter how bad things get, my gold and silver will be valuable, and maybe in an emergency they will help. They have been like this for hundreds of years. Do you have an advantage over one over the other? Well, it depends on what's going on at the moment, I guess.
Well, I don't know, now they've both gone up in price significantly . I usually try to decide based on what fell the most. This is usually what I decide to buy. But Claudius, I repeat: my gold and silver are not for sale. My gold and silver are for my children, for my heirs, for my life, for my fortune.
If things get really bad, I hope I don't have to take them out of hiding. I want to own them for the rest of my life. But if disaster strikes, I know gold and silver will help. And when you say you like to buy when the price drops, are you referring to the gold to silver ratio? So, you look at the ratio of gold to silver to determine which one seems relatively cheaper than the other metal?
Well, I mean, in my life, I've certainly owned other metals, but gold and silver are the basic foundation for my safety reserves. Both gold and silver have been valuable for hundreds of years, and always will be. Jim, you said you would never sell your gold and silver, but when the price skyrocketed in January, did you think for a second that maybe it was time to take some of the money out?
Not for me. I repeat, my gold and silver— for the rest of my life. They are for my children. So no, I never thought about selling gold or silver. If they drop in price, I'll think about buying more. So you're saying that gold is something you see yourself owning regardless of what happens to the price.
Well, I mean, I can't say that. I mean, if the world ends, I'll have to get my gold and silver. But as far as I can see in the future, I will always own gold and silver. This doesn't mean that unless there is a grand emergency, I won't sell my gold and silver to save myself. But I hope it won't come to that.
I don't see such a world coming in my lifetime. It's possible, but I don't see it. Okay, Jim, you've been through some big bull markets in commodities. When you look at what's happening with gold and especially silver, what stage of the cycle do you think we're in right now? Well, we've been in an uptrend recently for the last few decades, let's say.
And every time there is some uncertainty in the world , gold and silver go up. They have been correcting in my lifetime and yours, and probably will be, but now we are in an upward cycle with some correction, but this cycle is not over yet, Claudius. This upward cycle will continue for the rest of your life.
I hope you live long enough for it to last forever. If we are, as I understand it, somewhere in the middle of this cycle, Well, I am 83 years old. I expect gold to grow for the rest of my life and the lives of my children. And silver too. What happens at the end of the final stage of a commodities bull market?
Jim , what do you expect when we see the end game? Well, for me, gold and silver are a little different from a commodity "bull" market. Gold and silver are a protection mechanism, if not more, it's more of an insurance policy than anything else. Yes, copper is wonderful. Wheat is great, but for me gold and silver are different.
As I said, Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. It was not sold for 10 bushels of wheat. He was sold for silver. Silver and gold have been very valuable throughout history, for hundreds of years. Look, of course, some of what's driving the markets today goes far beyond gold and silver. There are other extraordinary things happening to currencies.
For years, investors borrowed cheaply in Japan and invested that money elsewhere in what is known as a yen carry trade, but recently the yen has fallen to levels not seen in about four decades, forcing Japan to step in to prop it up. Jim, if this “carry trade” starts to collapse, do you foresee that it could trigger a global sell-off in stocks and bonds?
Silver and gold did not collapse when the yen fell. They actually grew up in Japan. In yen terms, they have grown because they have a permanence that many other things do not have. The price of rice is excellent and will be so for hundreds of years to come in Japan and everywhere. But , in my opinion, silver and gold are somewhat different.
Yes, everyone should have some rice. Everyone should have some oil. But gold and silver are more important to me . How do you think the winding down of the yen carry trade will affect the US stock market? Japan has a huge debt, and it is growing every day. And the population in Japan is shrinking . The population has been declining for 15 or 20 years.
So there are big problems ahead in Japan. I suspect that gold and silver will help bail them out if the problems in Japan get worse. I mean, the debt has been growing rapidly for many years. The population has been declining for 15 years. I don't think Japan will disappear, not in your lifetime or mine.
But there will be problems in Japan, and gold and silver will help protect you or anyone else. Well, ice will protect you too. But gold and silver are better. Yes, of course. But this is very important. Jim, Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasury bonds. So any significant changes there could have consequences for the US bond market as well.
This is all happening at a very difficult time for America, when the US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, pressure is growing in the Treasury bond market, and the government has increased liquidity support by buying long-term bonds. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said last week in Jackson Hole that inflation was still too high , and markets immediately raised expectations for another interest rate hike.
So, Jim, something has to give here. How will the United States cope with a $40 trillion debt if borrowing costs continue to rise and inflation prevents the Fed from simply lowering interest rates? Well, if it were 1926, we would be talking about the pound sterling as the world's reserve currency and as a place of safety.
But 50 years later, Britain was bankrupt. They continued to spend money and accumulate debt. The US dollar is now the world's reserve currency. But I mean, the US has a gigantic debt. The debt is getting higher and higher. But it's a good time to be an old American. These are not the best times for young Americans, as they face huge problems due to their debt situation.
Just like young Britons 100 years ago had big problems when their currency came under pressure. I promise you that this will definitely happen in your lifetime, and it will be a big problem for everyone, well, not just anyone, but the whole world. Because when the world's reserve currency has problems, everyone has problems.
This happened with the pound sterling 50, 80, 100 years ago, when the pound was the world's reserve currency. This causes problems for everyone. Because people own it and are forced to do something. This will also happen to the US dollar. I repeat , the United States is the largest creditor and the largest debtor in the history of the world, and the situation is getting worse every day.
And they wo n't do anything about it . The situation will get worse, and it will create problems for everyone, including you and me. What do you think, Jim, are they going to potentially print more money, or are they maybe going to raise or lower rates? Well, of course, they will lower and raise rates over time, but ultimately, their only solution, the only thing they know how to do, is print money.
And they will print more money. I mean, if you go to Washington, they'll tell you everything is fine. Uh, they'll tell you everything's fine. Don't worry. But when problems arise, they will just type, type, type. They don't know what else to do. And if they try to print their way out of the situation, what will happen to inflation and the value of the dollar?
Well, I mean, you're an intelligent woman, you're an educated woman. Inflation will increase. The value of the dollar will fall. These are pretty simple things. This has been happening for hundreds of years. That's all they know how to do. They only know how to print money. They don't know anything else, and that's what they'll do.
Jim, will this ultimately have a positive impact on the price of gold? No, of course not. I mean, gold and silver are denominated in dollars or currency, paper money. And if there is a lot more paper money, whether it's dollars or something else, people will protect themselves with gold and silver. They always have done it and always will.
Jim, does the prospect of $40 trillion in debt and a Fed still worried about inflation make you think investors should hold more gold in their portfolios than usual? Well, everyone has to make their own decisions, but yes, I will continue to buy gold and silver because I know that they—Washington and others— will continue to print money.
And I don't see any other way to protect myself. So, let's put it this way , the best way to protect yourself is with gold and silver. So I'll buy more because I know they'll print more . They will say no. They will lie a lot, but all they know how to do is print money, and that's what they will do.
Well, Jim, it seems that central banks themselves are doing just that , adding gold to their portfolios. Gold has risen significantly in price, yet central banks continue to significantly increase their reserves this year. What does this tell you? Well, they know. I mean, most of these guys aren't very smart, but even the ignorant know that gold and silver will protect them.
And they will protect their countries. I think most people in the world already know that gold and silver can protect you. And that everyone should have at least a little. Every debtor country, and that is all countries, must have gold and silver for its own protection. And if they don't watch your show, sooner or later they'll realize they have to defend themselves.
What do you think central banks are ultimately preparing for by accumulating more and more gold reserves? They know that the value...they will see, if they don't already know, that the value of paper currencies continues to fall. And the way to protect yourself is— yes, wheat will help , oil will help, but gold and silver are more liquid and useful, as they have been for hundreds of years.
Jim, one place where the relationship with gold is really interesting is China. We have recently seen Chinese banks become stricter about certain forms of leveraged retail precious metals trading . And while people can still own physical gold, authorities are becoming more cautious about margin trading in gold.
What does this tell you about the role of gold in China today? The Chinese, like many other peoples, have existed for a long time, and the Chinese people know that gold and silver have always been valuable and always will be. I mean, go to China, to places like Xi'an, which have been around for hundreds of years—gold and silver have always been valuable there and have served as a means of protection.
And they always will be. I mean, you know it, and I know it, but the Chinese know it too . And they have known this longer than you and I. So you're saying that what we're seeing in China is n't new, it's just a long-standing advantage becoming more visible. Well, as far as gold and silver are concerned, I think there is nothing new .
They have always been valuable and always will be. Sometimes they are less valuable than at other times, if there is a surplus, or for any other reason, if people are not buying gold and silver, the price falls. But these are normal market fluctuations. If they drop, hopefully I'll be smart enough to buy more.
Jim, do you also think this could be happening because countries like China are losing confidence in the US dollar? Well, of course they will. Everyone will increasingly lose confidence in the US dollar. The United States is the largest debtor country in world history. And I'm not the only one who knows about this.
We all know that the United States continues to print more and more paper money. And more and more people are looking for ways to protect themselves. If we were talking to you in 1926, we would be talking about the pound sterling as a way of protection. Now it has moved to the dollar. There will always be a reason for people to protect themselves from currency depreciation.
If you don't have any gold and silver , buy some and put it in that cupboard behind you. Well, Jim, that brings us to a good point about what we might have to think about differently in the coming years. While many viewers of this channel want to know if gold will reach five thousand or ten thousand dollars, you have spent your career taking a completely different approach.
Do you really care how much gold is worth in dollars, or are you more concerned with what you can buy with one ounce of gold? Well, I'm concerned about the price because if it drops, I'll buy more. I have never sold gold and silver, but if they fall, I hope I am smart enough to understand it, notice it and buy more.
Gold and silver will always protect us if and when everything starts to collapse. I do n't like it, but I know the facts. And you...do you see that closet? Put some gold and silver in there. After we finish talking. Jim, Thomas Kaplan is a very successful long-term gold investor, and he recently said in an interview with Kitco that gold could eventually reach $30,000 or even $50,000 an ounce.
I know you don't like to make price predictions, so I wo n't ask you to. But when you hear about $50,000 worth of gold, it sounds absurd to you, can you imagine a world in which this could actually happen? This depends on the currency as much as on everything else. And since governments continue to devalue currencies and print money, yes, choose your currency as you see fit.
The price can become absurd, at least what we consider absurd. But governments will simply print more money and devalue paper money. They will lead to a decrease in the value of money. This means that gold and silver will increase in price. But what actually happens is that printing money reduces its value, and politicians will continue to do so.
Maybe in some countries they will stop for a while, but in the end, I mean Washington, all they know how to do is print money, and they will do it even more. And this will lead to an increase in the price of gold and silver relative to the US dollar and other currencies. The problem is that even if you teach them, they might say, "Okay, we'll stop." But then, when things get bad, they'll start printing again.
That's all they know how to do. They're not... these people aren't very smart. That's why they work for the government . Do you see this happening anytime soon ? Can you imagine that they will continue to print so much money that we could see a price of $50,000 in our lifetime? Well, of course. It's just ...it's the price of the currency falling.
Yes, of course. Oh, there will probably be another country that has a more reliable currency, and the value in that reliable currency will be different. I mean, the US dollar is the least reliable currency right now. Eventually, someone else will become that. But while we're sitting here talking, someone will probably have a reliable currency.
What you need to do is not announce it on air. Send me an email. Tell me what currency this is so I can buy more. Jim, some might point to the Swiss franc as a very attractive currency. Is this the currency you are looking at and interested in? Well, I have some Swiss francs . Yes. But during my lifetime, let's say, the value of the Swiss franc has become less and less.
Even the Swiss now have debts. The Swiss bankers of my time, it must be said, are no longer the same as before. The Swiss learned to print money. Print money, and they also learned to borrow it. Yes, Swiss francs are better than US dollars right now . Will they be like this in 5 years? I doubt it. Most central banks now know how to print money.
They know how to borrow money now. So they do it. This is the easy way. Most people choose the easy way out. I want the easy way too. But, you know, the easy way is usually not the best way. The easy way is usually expensive. Well, Jim, the issue of purchasing power brings us to another contradiction that many people face today: financial markets have created enormous wealth, yet many ordinary people feel that they are getting poorer because it costs too much to maintain their standard of living .
How long do you think this gap in the markets can last? Everything will change. I repeat, 100 years ago we would have been talking about pounds sterling. But that has changed, that is gone. And in 100 years we will be talking about something different. The US dollar will lose its status, and other currencies will emerge .
There will be some country that is not as badly governed as the United States, or that does not have such gigantic debt or money printing problems as the United States. Like I said, tell me what country this is, but send the letter to an email. Jim, what happens when the financial system and the real economy can no longer sustain this gap?
Well, all I'll do is go back to reading history. There will be panics in financial centers. Some banks will go bankrupt. Many smart people go bankrupt. And there will be a huge panic, a huge crash, a huge bear market, because everyone will be desperately trying to get rid of paper money. They will want to have something reliable.
Maybe gold and silver for a while. But when the panic comes, I mean , if you haven't already , please read about some past panics. They are all the same. It doesn't matter if it's railroads 150 years ago or US dollars in 1929. When panic sets in, everyone desperately tries to get out of the game, especially from what was previously considered reliable and popular.
Jim, do you see anything in the market right now that you think could cause the bubble to burst? Many suggest that this could be an AI boom . What is your opinion on this? I mean, AI is great. But we had a lot of things that were great. We had railroads, automobiles, electricity, computers . There were many new developments, economic achievements that led to bubbles.
And every bubble was amazing. But each of them eventually cracked . This one will eventually crack too . I don't think it will break this week, but it will happen someday. It will get bigger and bigger, and then smart people will start selling, and the bubble will burst. I mean, there have been a lot of bubbles in history.
They all eventually fizzled out when people started to get worried and turned away from the next “hot” trend. And what do you think, Jim, could the bursting of the AI bubble drag the broader economy down with it? This always happens. You know, if you look back at any bubble, after it burst, hundreds, thousands of people went bankrupt, suffered, and lost everything.
And they always say, "I will never speculate again." Don't worry. I assure you, there are three-year-olds right now who will one day say, “I will never speculate again. "I saw my father lose everything." But it will happen anyway. Well, that's interesting, because it reminds me of something you said recently that I found fascinating.
You said that in the markets, emotions can sometimes be more important than facts. And at what point should an investor stop analyzing fundamentals and start paying attention to people's behavior? First of all, you must understand the facts. You need to know where the bets are being placed . You need to know who has a lot of liquidity.
And you should know who has a lot of debt. You have to understand history. You have to understand that as debt accumulates, people become more agitated and confident. Eventually everyone becomes too self-confident, and things come to a head in huge crises. And when you go to the bar on a Saturday night, people will tell you that you don't understand anything.
Now everything is different. This time everything is different. And when people start telling you that this time everything is different and you do n't understand anything, be very concerned. Call me. Send me an email. Because when wild speculation begins, it's never otherwise. We are all human. And I hope we will always remain so.
And there will always be people who think crazy things. So when you look at today's markets, Jim, what worries you the most? Is it greed, fear or self-confidence? Well, I guess it's overconfidence. Most people, if you told them we were going to crash, would say, "Oh, you're out of your mind . Everything is fine.
Everything is different. Now everything is different. And I don't see any big wild speculation at this point. I see something, but not at all what happens during manias and hysterical " bull" markets. It will come. It's always been like this, but I don't see it yet. Well, Jim, you've been preparing for major downturns for some time now.
We discussed this in our last interview, and I know you said you were holding a lot of US dollar cash and waiting for better opportunities, but during this time the markets continued to rise. How do you know when patience is a virtue and when waiting becomes a mistake? I would like to know that. Maybe I should watch your show and you can tell me.
You will tell us all. I do n't know. I wish everything was simple. I wish someone would ring the bell. They never ring the bell on time. I repeat to you, this has happened many times in history, but no one has ever rung the bell. Maybe you'll go on air and say, " Get out!" Come out! Come out! But no one in history has ever done this.
Jim, what about those between 35 and 50 who are still accumulating their capital? Can they afford to sit on cash, waiting for opportunities , while they continue to watch the markets rise? Well, I have a lot of cash now because I sold most of the assets. Most markets have become very successful and have reached historic highs.
When this has happened in the past, it was usually a time to sell and wait for the crash. Who knows if I'll get it right this time, but that's exactly what happened in the past, and I suspect the bullish sentiment, optimism, and confidence will grow. Everything will go higher and higher, and eventually everyone will say that everything is different.
Now everything is different. And they will buy more and more, and the prices of things will become absurd. It may not happen, but that's how it's been in the past, and if it does, I hope I'm smart enough to start playing the downgrade. Okay, so you're holding gold, silver, and cash, but are you investing anywhere else right now, Jim?
I own gold and silver, and mostly cash US dollars, although the dollar is not a reliable currency, but most people think so. That's why I hold US dollars. I do n't know where I will invest my money if and when I sell my US dollars. I am looking. I wanted to ask you about this because throughout your career you have had an uncanny ability to spot big opportunities long before they were obvious to others, like China in the 1980s or commodities in the 1990s .
So, when you look at the world today, do you see the makings of the next big opportunity? What if it has n't reached the point where you want to buy it yet? I don't see it yet . I am searching. Maybe it will be Chinese currency. This is logical, but the Chinese currency is not yet fully convertible.
You cannot have an international store of value that is not fully convertible. The Chinese are working on this now. She is becoming more and more converted. And perhaps she will reach this state. This is the only thing I see on the horizon. Whatever it is , it has to be something that is completely convertible into gold or silver.
So, something quite liquid. It's interesting, because you've often said that one of the things you pay attention to is despair. When everyone around you says that an asset is "over," worthless, and no one needs it. So how do you distinguish true desperation from a market that is simply falling due to deteriorating fundamentals?
I mean, when gold starts to collapse, will it be because of deteriorating fundamentals, or because people are panicking? It will probably be because people are panicking about something. There will be bankruptcies. This will scare people and force them to sell. You know, they'll say, "Sell everything." So is it because the fundamentals have changed, or because the people themselves have changed?
I suspect it's because people and human emotions remain the same. I don't see the fundamentals of gold and silver changing during the next crash or the next panic. People will just panic, as they always have in the past. Well, Jim, we talked about where in the world you would invest, but there's another side to being a global investor—it's deciding where you're comfortable keeping your capital.
How important is the country you choose to hold and protect your assets? You've talked a lot about gold and silver, but where do you think is the safest place to store your gold and silver holdings? Under the bed. You have... That's an extremely good question. This is an extremely important question.
Where do you keep your assets? And I mean, there is often a reliable bank in your country or city where you can put money in a bank box; but you need to look for banks that are more reliable or less unreliable, and you can keep assets in such places. But you have to find a place where there are no big loans, a lot of debt, and where they don't...
I mean, if you put money in a bank and they take it out and lend it out , they can lose everything. If they lend your money to someone, you have to be very, very careful about whether the place you keep the funds is safe. Not every place is safe. Jim, you have been living in Singapore for many years.
How does Singapore look to you in this regard, being one of the safest countries in the world? Well, Singapore has been a country for the past few decades that hasn't accumulated a lot of debt or borrowed a lot of money. There is a lot of leverage in the economy . That is, it changes. They are accumulating more debt, but it is a normal, fairly safe place compared to most other countries.
I mean, the United States is the largest debtor country in the world. Singapore is not the largest debtor country in the world, but even Singapore is accumulating debt. But I'm keeping an eye on it. Every day I look at which currencies will grow and which countries will develop. Jim, we always enjoy having you visit our store when you are in Singapore.
So we will definitely be happy to see you there again . Well, when you decide where it will be, send me an email. Jim, that brings me to my last question today, and again, thank you very much for your time. Jim, you first started in business at the age of five, selling peanuts, and over 75 years later, you're still as engaged and curious as ever.
You have achieved extraordinary success . You have traveled around the world twice. You have set three Guinness World Records and raised two wonderful daughters. Please tell me what still motivates you and encourages you to continue sharing your time and life wisdom in interviews like this one with me today.
Well, I guess I feel like I definitely owe a lot to a lot of people. To the people who helped me in life, People have often helped me, and so I believe that if someone wants to ask me something, I should help. I, of course, make mistakes, and I want people to know that I'm wrong, but I feel like I have to try to help .
I'll tell everyone I'm wrong, so you really should make your own decisions. Don't listen to other people. But if you want to listen to me, I'll tell you. However, I will also warn you that I make mistakes. The best thing is to make your own decisions. Then, if you make a mistake, you will know what happened.
If I tell you to do something and it turns out to be a mistake, you won't know what to do because you won't know why you bought it in the first place. But if you make your own decisions and make your own mistakes, you will know what to do. Well, Jim, I think I can speak for everyone in the audience when I say that we really appreciate you, and it was a real privilege to spend time with you again.
OK. I look forward to the next meeting. I hope we both stay in shape until next time. I hope you will join us again soon. Thank you. To everyone watching, thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more conversations with some of the world's most insightful voices in the precious metals industry.
And if you want to get 5g of silver for free, you can find the registration link in the notes below. I'm Claudia from Time.
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