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테슬라 2분기 실적 발표(7/23 장후)를 앞두고 매출·EPS 컨센서스, 과거 실적 후 주가 반응 통계(상승 확률 37.5%, 중앙값 약 -8%), 중국 인도 등록 대수 증가, 로보택시 행사 연기(8/8→10월) 등을 짚음. 방향성은 명확히 말하지 않고 큰 변동성을 예상하며, 본인은 '베팅한다면 상승' 쪽이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's C with money so Tesla is going to be reporting earnings after the markets close today so I wanted to break down everything related to earnings expectations Revenue expectations and also talk a little bit about what are going to be this key metrics that we're going to be looking at from Tesla's earnings and what the median expected move and the implied volatility move is for Tesla after the earnings in less than uh 12 hours so hope you all enjoy this video and find it helpful make sure that you drop a like And subscribe to the channel as well again links to our Discord and patreon is going to be down below there is a 51% discount available for one more week until the end of this month and that can give you access to the entire trade alerts trade ideas as well as the entire platform where we've added a few more features and we're going to be adding more data sets and more tools for you to analyze individual stocks and do full comprehensive fundamental analysis on individual stocks so starting with the earnings calendar this right here is going to be the earnings calendar for the week of July 22nd which is the current week that we're in and these are going to be the companies reporting pre-market today and then Tesla of course all the way over here which is going to be after the markets close on Tuesday July 23rd which is today and the expected Revenue numbers are $25.2 billion 63 per share on a non-gap basis now you may see some discrep icies in terms of expectations for these numbers versus some other providers and it all comes down to the data where they're sourcing it from and for us we get the buy side and the sell side analyst a lot of analysts are putting down non-gaap earnings per share expectations of 63 cents per share with revenues of well over 25.2 billion for the company now before we move forward I do want to break down the cost spes for all Tesla shareholders so you can see that this is the position cost distribution as of yesterday's market close you'll notice that still majority of the Traders investors are in the green for Tesla well over 72% now this number has been well over 99% when Tesla was trading well in the 270s more recently and then ever since it's dropped back down to 250s which was the closing price from yesterday this number is now down to 72% of course we have seen a lot of volatility from not just last week but the week before that when Tesla was down trading as low as $233 and at that that point this number really did drop down to under 50% as there were of course fewer investor that were in the green because the cost basis now is sitting at $222 per share for Tesla so still majority of investors in the green with Tesla stock and after the earnings it's going to be very very interesting where it actually ends up trading whether we get a breakout or whether we get a huge rejection and a sell-off Gary black tweeted that Tesla reported China deliveries uh in other words Insurance registrations are well over 10,500 and that is for the week ending in July 15 21st now even though this is not going to be a huge deal because it doesn't really fall under the second quarter numbers because this is from July uh but just to give you a bit of an idea on what to expect in the third quarter and moving forward after 3 weeks of 3Q it's at 28,400 units that's 114% quarter over quarter and 36% increase on a year-over-year basis strongest start of the quarter in five quarters for the company as well so what do analysts expect from Tesla per share is 62 cents uh according to different sources and revenue just shy of $25 billion according to Yahoo finance and those estimates have improved slightly over the past couple of months uh Rising about 2 cents per share however that would Mark a single digigit year-over-year decline for revenue and a double digit decline for EPS as well and that is correct this right here is going to be the declines on a year-over-year and a uh on a revenue and a earnings per share basis so some of the other expected numbers uh again 24.6 billion that's going to be about a 3 and a half% decline on a year-over-year basis and earnings per share between 61 and 63 cents per share is going to put us down about 33 to 30 30 to 33% down on a year-over-year basis this is in fact the only company Among The Magnificent Seven stocks that is expected to report a decline on a year-over-year basis every company is expected to report a uh increase on a year-over-year basis starting with of course Nvidia being the most um at 111% increase in revenue and over 136% increase in earnings per share now when it comes to the average move and the median move median move expected at almost 8% uh plus minus and if you come over to actually to the downside because the probability is actually quite High the probability for Tesla to actually go up post earnings is only 37.5% because we're going back as far as the quarter ending in June of 2022 so we're going back almost two years over two years worth of data to better understand how the stock price has performed and of course in the last earnings back in March Tesla once again missed expectations when it comes to both revenue and EPs and still the stock price was up a little bit over 12% and this again is going to be the expectation from today but prior to last earnings it's gone down by on average of about 10% uh because of the again miss uh and the margins coming down and the guidance not being super strong so probability is quite low for Tesla to actually see a bit of a rally but again as we have seen uh when expectations are really low and the companies come in slightly better than what the expectations are uh believe it or not regardless of the declines on a year-year basis it's possible that the stock price actually moves in the right direction which is uh go higher so we'll again find out in less than 12 hours what those numbers are going to look like and what the performance or what the Stock's reaction is going to be like but last earnings the stock was up 12% even after Double Miss uh and prior to that the stock has down on average about 10% and the probability over the last 2 years has been the stock price going going up only 37.5% with a median move downwards of almost 8% for Tesla besides the financial results investor will be very very keen to hear plans for the company's robot taxi event as we already know that it's been pushed out to uh October now from August 8th and uh CEO Elon Musk did kind of hint that the design changes in the car will require extra time to put it into production and again they want to come out with some more prototypes and want to uh showcase their best when it comes to the robo taxi and autonomous driving um and furthermore some of the other event delays last week must said Tesla robotaxi event had been delayed from August 8th so more prototypes could be produced and a few other things that they're going to be announcing and Bard analyst said the new version of Tesla self-driving platforms could be one of the few other things musk was referring to along with a lower cost model uh in the company's latest earnings called in April musk said Tesla plans to start production on a more affordable model late this year or early 2025 which of course is going to be huge announcement and it's going to unlock a big market for Tesla especially when it comes to India and as we know that he's been getting closer and closer to finally setting up something in India uh as uh the relationships with nandra Modi has obviously gotten better over the last few months uh finally coming over to Tesla's stock price here so this right here is going to be Tesla's uh price just up over 80 basis points pre-market to trading as much as $253 we're seeing a little bit of consolidation so there's definitely a bit of a symmetrical triangle as you can see that Tesla continues to make some type of lower highs and a bit of a higher low as well and post earnings there is going to be a big move there's going to be a big move we just don't know in which direction uh but if I were a guessing man if I were a betting man I would assume uh that considering that the numbers have looked pretty good uh we have seen stronger delivery numbers at 443,000 increase on a year-over-year basis still again coming in well above the expect expected numbers of 410 412,000 it's possible that Tesla does report some pretty good numbers for revenue and earnings per share but it's really going to uh be dependent on the robo taxes the FSD autonomous driving and of course the forecast for future quarters as well so if you come back over to Tesla's numbers and if you take a look at the quarterly report so this has come back over to fundamental analysis come over to quarterly numbers going back as far as let's say 16 quarters uh this right here has been the revenue and it's been steadily increasing over the years uh this right here gross profit and operting income and net income as well and you can see that everything has been moving in the right direction um Revenue well over 25 24 $25 billion on average gross profit also slightly coming down because of lower margins and the cost of production going up and price Cuts obviously diminishing some of those margins and again operating income and net income also coming down uh over the last uh four to six quarters more specifically so if I go back to let's say eight quarters you can see that there's been a steady decline quarter over quarter because of the margins coming down because of the price cuts that Tesla has has done so many of them in 2023 and uh in 2024 as well so we really need to see some stabilization uh with regards to margins operating margins are sitting at 5 and a half% as of the last quarter so we really do want to see some stabilization in the overall margins and again profitability and uh if that continues to be there and uh Tesla's got a potentially bright future considering that interest rate expectations are going to be lowered now so rates are going to get cut Market's pricing in for three rate Cuts in 2024 that's only going to stir some more demand uh not to mention that there's been some comments of course politically speaking from Donald Trump as well with regards to Elon musk's endorsement of $45 million now I don't know how that's going to play a big role um because again we don't want to we don't want to jump too much into politics here but as I'm sure obviously there's going to be some uh fiscal or some political benefit with subsidies and electric vehicles and the adoption of electric vehicles um in the United States and all over the world as well so keeping all those things in mind support level four Tesla very strongly sits at $233 per share post earnings is going to be quite a big day for Tesla to finally report its second quarter numbers which have been long and dissipated ever since the company's reported its delivery numbers and uh is this finally the moment is this finally the moment where Tesla recovers and breaks out above this area of Supply sitting between 260s all the way up to as much as $300 it's been constantly getting rejected left and right uh over here so is this finally the moment it breaks out above this area of Supply gobbles up of the shares and and breaks out to $300 plus or it's going to be the same story all over again where it gets rejected gets sold off and gets gapped down to 233 $232 that's going to be a down about 78% it's possible that it actually ends up trading sub two three two $230 as well with almost a 10% decline putting us down to 228 so let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below and again I'm not going to sit here and tell you exactly where I I I know that the stock price is going to move higher or lower my guess is just as good as yours I can tell you the expectations are quite low considering previous quarters and if the company beats expectations comes out with some decent forecast and some good message about the robotx season and FSD it's possible that we do see a bit of a breakout to the upside so again if I were a betting man I would be betting to the upside but at the same time I'm very honest to tell you that nobody really knows where the price is going to go post earnings so hope you all enjoy this video found it helpful make sure that you drop a like and of course don't forget to subscribe to the channel link is going to be down below if you want to join be a part of our money vest Community get access to the entire platform including our earnings calendar fundamental analysis visual charts everything is going to be available with my trade alerts and ideas as well 51% discount available until the end of this month as always happy investing I'll see you all in the next video
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