저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 은행 위기가 미국발로 전 세계에 번질 것이며 큰 경제 문제가 올 것이라고 경고한다. 은행 위기 전망: 실리콘밸리은행·시그니처은행 문제는 호황기에 은행이 대출 기준을 낮추면서 반복되어 온 패턴이며, 스위스 크레디트스위스 문제처럼 상호 연결되어 확산될 것이라고 본다. 미국 정부·민간 부채는 역대 최고 수준이라 다음 위기는 끔찍할 것이라 주장. 연준과 금리: 연준은 인플레 해결을 과신해 금리 인상을 늦추다 결국 유동성 완화로 돌아설 것으로 보나, 인플레가 다시 살아나 결국 금리가 매우 높이 오를 것이라 전망. 이는 세계 경제의 큰 문제로 이어진다고 봄. 증시: 2023년 중 큰 조정이 있을 것이며, 이후 마지막 대형 랠리가 나온 뒤 인플레 재발로 세계 경제에 큰 문제가 생길 것이라 주장. 아시아 증시: 인도 증시는 강해 선호하지 않고, 중국은 많이 떨어져 있어 중국을 사겠다고 함. 인도 정부의 개입을 줄이길 희망. 원자재: 농산물은 농민 평균 연령 등 구조적으로 기회가 있다고 봄. 원유는 80달러 이하로 내려오면 향후 에너지 매수를 고려하나 현재는 관망하며, 석유·가스 확인 매장량 감소를 근거로 제시. 금·은은 수십 년간 매수해 왔고 팔지 않았으며, 다음 위기 때 가격이 매우 높이 오를 것이라 전망하고 추가 매수를 기다린다고 함. 아다니 그룹: 헨덴버그 보고서 관련 사실 여부는 검증하지 않았다며 포지션 없음.
다듬은 글
and we have Jim Rogers chairman Rogers Holdings with us on the show today good morning Jim how are you good morning I'm delighted I have a fan very good thank you uh let me start by asking you the problems have again cropped up in USA's backyard uh High inflation last year then the developments with the silvergate Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in Europe we had the trees too uh uh you know in trouble uh recently what's your development of these uh what's your interpretation of these developments across the banking universe and do you think the problems have been caged if you ask about their problems in the U.S yes and we're going to have more the dead in the US at the government level and at the private level has risen to the highest in the world history so of course we're going to have more problems we had a big problem in 2008 because of too much debt oh pretty since 2009 the debt has skyrocketed not just in the U.S but everywhere the US is the leader so the next time we have a problem it's going to be horrible what about the banking related issues uh Jim Banks Silicon Valley Bank Signature Bank well it's happened throughout history all over the world when there's a long period of prosperity Banks get excited and get confident and they think they're smart and they start making loans that they wouldn't make otherwise that's what's happening in the U.S Silicon Valley Bank is very very excited they thought they were smart people in Silicon Valley think that they're very very smart and many of them are but they get carried away they lower their standards they think everything is okay and that penis that has always led to problems all over the world throughout history and it's happening again and don't worry before this is over we're going to have some horrible economic problems everywhere okay so comparisons have been drawn of these developers to the lemon Brothers collapse and the global financial crisis what's your view here are we being too pessimistic well the US is the largest economy in the world and certainly the most the largest financial Market in the world so if we start having problems in the U.S they will snowball everywhere whether we like it or not you know Silicon Valley went bankrupt a couple that led to another bank in the U.S having trouble well the next thing you know Swiss Bancorp I mean uh credit Suites in Switzerland a very large Swiss bank is having problems so all of these things snowball what happens in one country has an effect in others maybe not directly not the same week but we're all interconnected these days especially financially and that's going to lead more and more problems you should be worried so how do you see the U.S federal reserve tackle the inflation cost now do you expect the U.S Central Bank to boost loan rates or probably uh take your turn and cut rates later this year well what should be done and what they will do or two different things the U.S Central Bank like most central banks and they're not very smart people that's why they work for the government India had a very very good Central Banker a few years ago it's now a professor somewhere but there are very few good central banks in the world and there have been very few good Central Bankers in the world the American Central Bank they're all very very worried they are starting to think that they have solved the problems of inflation because some prices oil is down grains are down which always happens in any Market so they think they have solved the problems they will maybe they will raise interest rates one more time a small amount but for the most part they think they have solved the problem and that they don't want to cause more economic problems and so we will see a Slowdown in interest rate increases in the U.S for a while then a U-turn and start cutting rates or probably look at a quantitative quantitative push instead of a quantitative tightening they look at quantitative easing a little at the at uh by the end of 23.
well adults will be quantitative easing as you put it there may be less tightening which will be an effective form of of loosening if you will but you're not old enough to remember but in 1980 the 1970s we had this problem interest rates in the U.S on short-term treasury bills was 21 percent 21 on short-term government paper that just shows you how bad it can be the inflation problem is going to be worse this time so interest rates will have to go very very high and not this week not this month because Washington doesn't know what to do but before this is over we are all going to see very very high interest rates everywhere or or much much much worse inflation but I would suspect eventually we will see how very high interest rates okay so do you expect the markets to actually correct in 2023 well they already have been correcting to some extent in 2023 yes markets always have ups and downs there's nothing nothing new about them yes before this is over we will have a serious correction later in 2023 but at some point the uh well as I said the central is going to stop raising interest rates everybody will think things are okay we'll have a big rally that will probably be the last big rally for a long time and it will happen because everybody will think everything is okay now it's not okay because inflation will come back in a big way which means an interest rates will go very high which means that the world economy will have a major major problem next year or the year after or later this year one of our views on the Asian economies and markets gym China and India both Well India is India stock market has been Fabulous As you know somebody in India has been doing something right the Chinese stock market in town because they their reaction to the virus was much worse than many other countries in the world so I mean of those two if I were buying something I would buy China now instead of India because China's down a lot and India's been a very strong stock market I don't like to buy things that have been strong I like to buy things that have been weak there was nothing Hindenburg report that highlighted wrongdoings or some activity with a certain Indian group are you aware of that and if you could throw your uh views on that right am I aware of what uh there was a Hindenburg report on adani group oh oh yeah of course I'm aware of that yeah you cannot be alive in 2023 and not be aware of course I'm aware I have not done my I have not done the homework the research I do not know uh whether the accusations are correct or not I do know that those people on both sides are very smart people they're a nanny group is very smart the people that I read about in the US I read that there's more but I don't know so I do not know if there's any accuracy or not I have no position I am not long or short any of those companies at all I am watching okay what I have used on the commodity segment crude oil Gold Silver and of course agree well uh agriculture has been depressed for me many years though agriculture is still a place with lots of opportunities I mean agriculture has been terrible the average age of farmers in America is 58.
the average age of farmers in Japan is 66. agriculture has been horrible many places in the world so whenever there's a horrible problem in something they're usually opportunities so I find I am looking at agriculture for opportunities it's a great place but there are many parts of the Indian economy which could be and will be very successful again in the future I wish your government would be less interventionist I wish your government would stay out of the way more if I would say about all governments I certainly wish that about the US in a big way so you know India has been at times in history one of the world's great agricultural Nations you will be again if the government will get out of the way for our views on crude oil places Jim they step below 80 dollars a barrel do you think that they will stay there or is it a temporary blood they will go up and they will go down I am looking to buy more energy not today but eventually because the energy prices have been coming down and the world's known reserves of oil and natural gas continue to decline fracking came along and helped us for a while but fracking cannot save us for a long time so there will be opportunities again in energy I am not buying at the moment but I am watching because I see the prices coming down and I know that the world's reserves of oil and gas known reserves of oil and gas continue to decline what about Gordon Silva uh well I have a little silver right here I have some gold too uh I have been buying gold and silver for decades and I have never sold any I'm not buying now but I am waiting to buy some more gold and silver when the next Crisis comes the price in gold and silver are going to go very very high because the crisis is going to be so bad and you're an Indian you know better than most and I've learned a lot from India you know more about silver you know more about gold than anybody in the world so I have learned from you thank you thank you thank you for your time today we hope to see you soon very good I love to see you in India and we'll all go and buy some gold and silver together okay thank you thank you if you like this video share it and subscribe to business standard for more news views and insights log on to www.business hyphenstandard.com do also follow us on YouTube Twitter Facebook Instagram Telegram and Linkedin
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