저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 조정이 제한적이라 공포보다 탐욕을 경계하며, 가치 매력이 있는 종목을 분할 매수하라는 입장. 시장 상황: 지정학적 위기로 외국인 매도가 지속됐지만 국내 기관·개인 매수로 지수 하락폭은 약 9~10%에 그쳤다. 개별 종목은 30~50% 하락한 곳도 있다. 밸류에이션: 내년 기준 약 19~20배 수준으로 평화 시기 대비 매력적이라고 평가. 다만 확실한 바닥은 알 수 없으므로 5~10%씩 나눠 진입 권고. 리스크: 인플레이션, 금리, 무역 분쟁은 가격에 일부 반영되어 있으나, 우크라이나 전쟁이 확전되면 예측 불가능한 리스크. 전쟁이 1~10일 내 끝날 가능성도 언급. 거시 전망: 선거로 정치 안정, 빈곤 문제 완화 등 긍정 요인. 2022년 말~2023년이 실적 개선의 해로 보임. 유가는 130달러에서 100달러 부근으로 하락 중이며, 75~85달러 박스권 안정이 이루어지면 기업 실적 정상화 기대. 러시아·OPEC+ 공조로 유가가 100달러 근처의 '뉴노멀'이 될 가능성. 섹터: 유가·전쟁 충격으로 시멘트, 정유, 제조업이 깊이 조정됐으나 영구적 손상인지 일시적인지 구분 필요. 은행과 인도 IT는 전쟁 영향이 적고 실적 전망 양호. 중소형주: 대형 IT(인포시스, TCS 등 연 10~12% 성장)보다 중소형주(연 18~20% 성장 가능)의 밸류에이션 격차가 컸으며, 중형주 조정이 깊어 매력적이라고 평가. 출연자 전망: 시장은 탐욕을 가지되 신중하게 분할 매수하고, 중소형 가치주 선별 투자 권고.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the show i am puneet vadwa and we have mr ramdev agarwal uh co-founder and mother of financial services with us today hello mr agarwal how are you very good thank you so let me uh start by asking you are the investors being given an opportunity of buying their favorite stocks lower i mean this geopolitical crisis and they are not reliant yet yes i think despite despite interns selling by global in global equity markets more particularly in india by the f is at all still the correction has been quite modest i mean that has been surprising to everybody that from the top there's just about 9 10 down at least at the index level some individual stocks must have corrected by 30 40 50 percent but uh there is a correction and uh i think uh people who are sitting on the fence uh a few months back of course this war time was uh one opportunity but uh generally this kind of war and global disturbances they used to bring much more kind of correction people corrected 20 percent 30 like what happened in uh january 2020 when kovitt got hit so straight we got 40 correction and uh so this time corrections have been much lower thanks to the domestic buying very strong traction that has what has kept them but i think people are you know kind of coming out not very aggressively but they are selectively buying the uh you know the corrected stocks in the portfolio so do you think it's time to be greedy or fearful no definitely not fearful that the world is fearful you have to be greedy but how gritty because since they're connected only ten percent in the sense that i mean yes you have to it's a healthier concept for investing market has corrected you are looking at about 19 20 times next year you know in a peace time zone so uh clearly uh these are times to further stop because you know uh and you must start building portfolio and if you're sitting on the fence you start getting into the market slowly five percent ten percent percent you start putting in the markets that's the because nobody knows the future i'm not saying that i know the future and we can this uh we can price all the risk but at the price i mean whatever is known everything is in the price and uh it is very excellent we have seen most of the fi selling and uh actually at one level entire emerging market has collapsed so there are four five countries in emerging markets the biggest was china second was taiwan third was india fourth was in i think russia and indonesia muslims say like china taiwan and russia three are out i mean it has become uninvestable by the i mean capitalist countries like u.s and europe and things like that when they come in when they want to buy back india again i think they have to buy india separately instead of buying another emergency marketplace but most global uh frontline indices are near bureau territory even the sensex is the nifty are flirting with it so isn't there a genuine reason for the investors to worry and panic see all the all the risk can never be known because it comes from i mean what what is not known is the risk actually what is known say inflation and interest rates and trade action those are the things yes they are they are going to be playing with the valuations and all but still uh those are things which can somehow fathom but uh something like ukraine if war actually takes a different direction altogether this is that the participation increases the arm supply increases and confrontation increases so when russia is not willing to take any compromising attitude so that is not priced in so you know the positions can harden uh from both sides and uh situation you're out of control and the world will pay in terms of economic prices foreign investors have been selling relentlessly and the domestic institutions and the retail investors have lent some uh support uh at what point do you think that they will also throw in the double domestic investigation my sense is that it becomes cheaper see if if the if the selling continues relentless so earning another thing is a pickup in the economy if the economy picks up i mean if the wars of sites and uh everything because see there were three big events which happened one uh the elections is behind and it has it has happened absolutely for the stable power okay so that gives so there is a stability in the politics side which is not a small thing for india second your poverty is completely over i mean we are done and tested so these two have not been celebrated clearly the price of the war has been quite heavy now when you go forward the war will sometimes someday get over in next one week or 10 days or whatever and it becomes a peaceful time and election is already over so what will happen is 22 23 looks to be a much better year uh for the earnings when do you think that you know inflation concerns geopolitical concern will start chipping away into uh the uh puppet earnings growth or fi 23 yeah so what is happening today if it gets prolonged see 50 20 years can always be sustained in the sense that very quickly from 130 dollars oil just come down to say 100 now it comes down to say 9 85 90 that's what earnings were built around so uh i mean even 85.90 is not very comfortable number but uh i think this is a new normal in terms of you're looking at closer to 100 oil price than uh 7075 kind of a comfortable situation we had because another side ussr is part of opec plus and opec is not going to i mean they have some kind of alliance force so they are not willing to pump too much of extra oil to cool down the oil prices they are they are more kind of uh with russia in terms of uh controlling the oil oil volumes in the marketplace if the oil is stabilized at 75 80 85 in in some kind of narrow band then the all the passing through and normal working off the corporates will start i mean i'm buying oil as an oil refining company on behalf of customers so what is on your shopping list in terms of sectors and stocks see i think wherever the manufacturer is hurt because of this or this oil crisis i think that's where the deepest cuts have happened uh like cement companies oil companies all manufacturing companies have been cut very deeply so you have to go and figure out where the cut is going to be permanent whether the cut is going to be temporary and how how does it how essential is the product in the marketplace and see the uh the the the assess the impact of uh the changes right now so i think uh that's where some of these things will come uh because of the fi selling banks see banks and uh tech indian tech both are doing very well i i don't have any possible services so they are not impacted by the uh the current bar uh war impact basically and both of them were to do well even before covet and now it looks that uh their uh their prospects are intact and they will do well now the issue is that has the has the correction been deep enough for you to find value in them definitely in banks the values are much more what you call visible than in ide idea has created just about eight ten percent but uh but mid-cap it has threatened a lot more which can grow at fifteen seventeen percent uh five ten percent higher than or 2x to the uh big big giants like infosys tcs they could grow up uh at about 10 12 percent but smaller companies can go at 18 20 so the valuation differential was somewhat very very high and there the correction has happened in the mid cap by stop thank you randy for this valuable advice we hope to see you soon thanks if you like this video share it and subscribe to business standard for more news views and insights log on to www.businesshyphenstandard.com do also follow us on youtube twitter facebook instagram telegram and linkedin
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