How investors should prepare for next year. A Howard Marks speech.

요약 보기

한 줄 결론: 막스는 2008년 이후 14년간의 초저금리·초완화 환경이 정상이 아니며 앞으로는 높은 금리가 더 오래 지속될 가능성이 크다고 본다. 주요 주장: 투자 역사상 세 번의 큰 전환(시대 변화)이 있었고, 현재 세 번째 전환의 문턱에 있을 수 있다고 한다. 첫째는 1980~2020년 금리 하락(20%→0%), 둘째는 1970년대 이후 위험을 피하는 것에서 위험-수익을 분석해 지능적으로 감수하는 방식으로의 전환이다. 2008~2022년 환경: 글로벌 금융위기 이후 중앙은행과 재무부의 대규모 부양으로 쉬운 돈(easy money) 환경이 약 14년간 지속되었다. 이는 차입자와 자산 보유자에게 최고의 시기였으나 정상(normalcy)은 아니라고 평가한다. 버블 논쟁: 이 기간을 버블로 보기는 어렵다고 한다. 자산 수익률이 비정상적으로 높지 않았고 비합리적 낙관에 따른 것도 아니라는 입장이다. 다만 특정 계층에게 모든 것이 쉬웠던 과장된 시기였다고 본다. 금리 전망: 금리 부양은 매일 아침 아드레날린을 맞는 것과 같아 지속 불가능하다고 본다. 인플레이션과의 싸움이 끝나면 연준이 금리를 다시 낮출 것이고, 경기침체 시에는 매우 낮은 금리가 다시 나올 수 있다고 언급한다. 예측은 믿지 않지만, 향후 수년간 연준 기준금리는 0~2%보다 2~4%에 평균적으로 머무를 가능성이 더 높다고 말한다. 리스크: 시장은 내년에 금리가 내려갈 것으로 보고 있으나, 막스는 제로금리 시대에 익숙해진 시장이 높은 금리를 받아들이는 데 저항(tantrum)할 수 있다고 본다. 자산 가격 조정 가능성이 있다는 함의가 깔려 있다. 출연자 전망: 막스는 구체적 가격 목표나 단기 방향은 제시하지 않으며, 장기적으로 높은 금리 환경을 전제로 투자 준비를 하라는 취지다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. foreign and happy holidays so let's start with the sea change that that was the big headline from your report it's how you you kicked off your memo you said 53 years in your investing career there have been three sea changes and we are in one of them what does that mean well a sea change is a major transformation of the environment a complete change in attitudes Etc and I suspect that we that we may be at the beginning of one uh the first one was the uh the fall of interest rates uh from 20 to zero between 80 and uh 1980 and 2020 which had uh very very positive effects the second was the opening of investors Minds to what we call risk return analysis and before the 70s the job of the investor was to avoid risk after the seven season was to intelligently take risk and that was a big change and I think that we may be uh on the doorstep of of the Third so what what is the sea change well you know since that's happening since the FED central banks around the world and the treasury took a strong action to solve the global financial crisis in 0809 we have been living in a highly stimulated very positive uh easy money environment uh for uh roughly 14 years and uh I think that you know a lot of people began to invest or came into the business in those 14 years not too many have a perspective on the period before the global financial crisis and and and uh they may think that the last 14 years was normalcy I don't think so I think it was the best imaginable period for borrowers and for asset owners uh and I don't think that it's necessarily going to continue so do you do you characterize the past 14 years post financial crisis as a bubble and now that now that's popping we return to some sort of normality or even a crash well a bubble most people take a bubble to mean irrational appreciation and the the asset appreciation in that period was not uh terribly positive it wasn't an unusual uh 14-year period in terms of uh asset returns Etc and it it wasn't the the result of uh uh unrealistically optimistic thinking so I bubble I think has a specific use but it was a it was a hyped uh unusually positive uh period of when everything was easy uh for certain classes of uh of people uh as I said before borrowers and asset owners in particular uh and it isn't normalcy and it's not I don't think gonna be the norm going forward so is your bottom line that that stimulative rates are a thing of the past and now we should just get used to higher rates for longer even though the market is sort of thinking that they might go down next year well uh you know I I don't I don't think that we should expect I I don't think it's prudent to expect to have stimulative rates all the time you know I I describe that as as taking a shot of adrenaline every morning I don't think it's very viable um uh we'll see lower rates well first of all when the when it when the battle against inflation is one I think rates will the the FED will bring the FED funds rate back down um and uh we'll see uh very low rates again if there's a recession that has to be uh cured um uh over time but I just think that you know people got so used to zero rates of interest you know the fed the FED brought the the FED funds rate to zero uh late 08 to fight the global financial crisis and left it there for seven years and had a Dickens of a Time raising it because it thought it should it should it thought that we shouldn't permanently be at zero but but the markets had tantrums and resisted um I don't I don't think that uh you know what I say in the memo I don't make many predictions I don't believe in predictions including my own we don't bet on predictions at Oak Tree but what I said in the memo is I think that for the next several years the FED funds rate is more likely to average between two and four then between zero and two that's as far as I can go while you've reached the end of the video if you are interested in learning more about similar topics here you will find other really interesting videos from the channel thanks for watching this video click on the like button if you enjoyed it and do not forget to subscribe in case you didn't see you on the next one