저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 향후 5년 포트폴리오 두 배 이상 상승을 기대하며 유전체·AI·유전자편집 분야를 핵심으로 본다. 포트폴리오 전망: 최근 5년 500%+ 수익 대비 향후 5년은 최소 100% 이상, 더블 이상을 기대하며 연 15% 최소 기대수익 허들을 설정했다고 설명. 핵심 성장 테마: DNA 시퀀싱·AI·유전자치료(CRISPR)의 융합이 질병을 치료할 것이라 보며 베타지중해빈혈, 겸상적혈구병, 당뇨 등을 예로 듦. 테슬라는 여전히 유효하나 최대 상승 서프라이즈는 유전체 분야로 봄. 빅테크(애플·마이크로소프트·아마존·페이스북): 과거 초기 편입했으나 시총 1조 달러 규모로 커지며 리서치 초점을 차세대 유전체 시대 종목으로 옮김. 기대수익이 15% 아래로 떨어지면 현금성 자산처럼 이들로 복귀할 수 있다고 언급. 비공개 시장: 벤처·성장주 투자 대중화를 희망하며 SEC 규제 완화에 따라 일반 투자자용 공개-비공개 혼합 ETF를 내년 출시 목표로 검토. 현재는 공인투자자 제한 존재. 사업 구조: ETF 연간 매출 약 2.2억 달러, 초기 손실을 감수한 확장형 모델로 수익성 확보. 법적 분쟁은 협상 국면이며 통제권 문제는 파트너와 조율 중이라고 설명. 추가 상품: 일본 시장 피드백 기반 핀테크 펀드(일본 2016, 미국 2019), 우주탐사·SDG 펀드 검토 중. 비트코인: 2015년 1% 편입 후 한때 10%까지 확대했으나 비적격소득(세금 문제) 리스크로 2018년 매도. 현재 펀드 내 약 7% 보유, 가격은 약 2만 달러 부근. 비트코인이 암호자산 생태계의 준비통화 역할을 한다며 매우 강세라고 강조. 리스크·조건: 주식시장 급락 시 비트코인 등 헤지 수요 가능성 언급, 벤치마크 민감도 대신 미래 투자를 강조.
다듬은 글
a runway ahead because what what we think is not well understood is exponential growth i think if we step back and look at amazon in the early 2000s i remember buying that stock and many people derided that decision because uh the thought process back then is in the tech and telecom bust which is you know the internet is a figment of wall street's imagination what makes you think amazon's ever going to make any money and uh if if uh if you did at that time assume that amazon's revenue growth would compound at a 20 to 30 rate for the next 20 years you would have you would have bought that stock all day long even if you were using a dividend discount model right i feel like our portfolios are filled with uh amazons because the seeds for what we were doing what we are doing now they were planted in the tech and telecom bubble uh and they have been gestating all this time and now they're breaking out to those growth trends just like amazon did so the portfolio may not be able to replicate the 500 plus percent gain it's had in the past five years but it should be based on what you just told me well over 100 percent it should double plus in this in the next five years yes we we expect more than a doubling in our portfolios over the next five years if i look backward as you well know tesla accounts for almost a fifth of the return that you have generated in that five-year time span which of your current holdings kathy do you think will supply the biggest lift in the next five years tesla's still in the running but i would have to say the biggest upside surprises are going to come from the genomic space and that's because the convergence of dna sequencing artificial intelligence and gene therapies importantly crispr gene editing are going to cure disease that convergence is going to cure disease now we have real science and technology surfacing the mutations in our genomic profile and and as they surface those mutations what do we see we see the earliest manifestations of disease and now with the combination of artificial intelligence and gene editing we're able to both anticipate diseases and cure them potentially beta thalassemia we're seeing it sickle cell disease we even think it will work in uh diabetes which is where most the if you look at the largest category of spending uh year-to-year in healthcare it's diabetes kathy another surprise for me in your portfolio attribution is that almost none of your performance just 20 points out of 600 points is from apple microsoft amazon and facebook the four biggest contributors to the s p 500 over the same period what about them does it make the grade for kathy wooden for arc well we're not saying they'll be bad stocks at all in fact they've been very good stocks and they were a part of our portfolios in the early days uh but as they were scaling into the trillion dollar category uh we believed that our uh that that our research would be focused better on the next set of fangs and i don't mean fangs meaning in the internet age uh we actually think the next fangs are in the genomic age and if you'll notice our flagship portfolio the largest exposure is healthcare for that reason what would make you reconsider investing in those stocks what would uh encourage us to move back into that ilk of stock is um is a you know a continuation of what we're seeing now so that some of our valuations become stretched beyond our minimum hurdle rate of return so our minimum hurdle rate of return uh for any stock entering our portfolio is 15 at a compound annual rate over the next five years so that's the doubling over five years we're not there yet but if we were in the low twenties which is much more than a doubling over five years but if we started seeing more and more of our stocks lose uh that uh return expectation and drop below fifteen 15 we would move back towards some of uh the fangs and microsoft uh because we would be treating them essentially as cash-like instruments for for our strategy so what we do is uh as a bull market extends we do move into more cash-like uh equities uh you know they would be the less volatile stocks and certainly the fangs and microsoft fit that and we would do that increasingly etfs are by definition public market vehicles i'm i've wondered this as well why not extend your investment thesis to private markets and raise money to invest in venture capital and in growth equity because so many of the things that you're interested in get their start there absolutely well uh one of the reasons was the low-hanging fruit in the public equity markets innovation had been neglected in the public markets it had become overvalued in the private markets my stomping ground was the public market so it made sense for me to start there now that the valuation discrepancies are narrowing to some extent not completely and because we must know private companies and in fact part of our uh research ecosystem with the social networks getting involved with companies uh as they're innovating a lot of them are private uh and we're talking to them regularly in uh social media on social media platforms so yes we are evolving some strategies we hope uh that next year we'll be able to launch something what i would love and it would be true to uh our stripes our current stripes i would love because i know the sec is opening up the up to this i would love to be able to offer a public private option that would be available for all retail investors right now we have to the private world uh has to deal with accredited investors so there's a screen um i'd i believe that screen is going to start coming down over time and i'd love us to move into a world where we could offer what we do across both public and private companies in the form of an etf uh i don't think it can be done and probably not just because of the way market makers and authorized sure the creation redemption mechanism would be very difficult but uh but i'm sure that we we could find some other rapper uh maybe a separately managed account rapper uh in which to make this happen right now kathy your etfs alone are generating an annualized run rate of 220 million dollars in revenue and that doesn't include the other assets under management um how profitable is the business well it has our business is uh very profitable now but believe me the blood sweat and tears that we left in the early days it's a scalable model so we had to pay for the infrastructure in the early days and uh we were quite the loss-making company uh and i felt it acutely since i funded uh most of it for the first three years and so but in those early days we were investing aggressively which is what we tell our companies to do because we thought we would be able to scale and when we were and when we were able to scale we'd have the right talent in place to scale and so we've done that and and i'm very happy to say that we are able to reward those who are making us happen the team that's making this happen and rightfully so so uh in a way the the hedge fund model you have uh maybe fewer people and less in the way of assets and the same kind of profits so we've done it a different way and now we've shown it's possible and uh and and we think it's a really healthy way to go as well kathy in the midst of the incredible year arc is having you're in a legal battle for control of your firm how on earth did that happen well i i will say that has quieted down and we are in negotiations i think all we wanted were negotiations and we wanted to be fair and square with our partner and i think that i think things will work out i think we're we're well on our way from your perspective does working things out leave control of the firm either in your hands or the hands of you and your partners your colleagues at arc yes it does and if things were to go pear-shaped and for your sake i i hope they don't um do you have a nuclear option could you just take the team pack up walk out start a new firm uh and create new etfs uh i could not i could not you have a non-compete and a contractual obligation okay so both sides then have an interest in coming to the table yes kathy arc manages five active etfs all of which have more than a billion dollars in assets are there any others that you have wanted to create thought of creating or in the process of creating yes uh and we uh one of our partners uh a distribution partner in uh asia pac nico asset management um the japanese market is a very interesting market the the the the clients the investors uh basically tell uh the the distributors what they would like to see and we've learned from them so our fintech portfolio came out of japan it started in japan in 2016 and in the u.s in 2019 they have a space exploration fund uh we're looking at that one uh at some point in the next uh year or so hopefully uh and also uh an sdg fund uh uh we are likely to launch there and sdg sustainable development goals the un 17 goals uh our technologies our 17 technologies map or i should say uh five platforms and 14 technologies so that'd be 19 uh map beautifully against those 17 goals so it's a natural historically was a huge contributor to your returns and i know you're still bullish on it because arc recently published two very favorable white papers on bitcoin but so far as i can tell there has been no bitcoin in the ark innovation etf for more than a year and a half how come yes well we uh put it in at a one percent position in 2015 when bitcoin was 250 dollars and uh and we scaled with it we didn't sell it at all so it hit uh uh 10 of the portfolio at which point we were forced to sell and we and at the same time there were there was some forking taking place so we were getting distributions uh and what we learned is that uh that bitcoin threw off what's called unqualified income which is not illegal but from an irs point of view if our portfolios generate more than 10 of gross profits in unqualified income which is usually commodity-like income the irs allows that 10 percent and then we'll confiscate the rest of it so if we moved into a black swan event where the equity markets imploded and bitcoin took off uh our our uh clients uh would uh would uh be able to keep only 10 percent of that gain and we just thought this was this was too much of a risk from the fiduciary point of view to subject our investors to so what we did is we moved out of it in early 18 better lucky than smart because of course we went from twenty thousand dollars down to at the end of seventeen down to below four thousand uh earlier this year in our fully discretionary portfolios where we are not subjected to the forty act rules of the sec uh our bitcoin position is about uh seven percent right now uh so that is how optimistic we are on it and it's once again flirting with twenty thousand dollars can you put a price on your level of bullishness we are extremely bullish uh our confidence in it has gone up since 2017 because what we saw as as it dropped from 20 000 to below 4 000 it actually got in well into the threes i think in 2019 uh was that bitcoin's share of the crypto asset ecosystem moved from the low 30 percent range in terms of value network values into the low 70 range and what did that tell us that confirmed in our mind that bitcoin is the reserve currency of the the crypto asset ecosystem uh so it is the reserve cryptocurrency which is a very important role it's the flight to safety currency uh it is bitcoin's technology uh or bitcoin's blockchain is the most secure of any other blockchain and so it makes sense that bitcoin would be the reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem uh i i always say try and figure out a way to measure your success in a way that you know no one can take it away from you and that does not mean not being a team player being a part of a team that develops a great track record is really important so many people say wow your industry seems to be quite lacking when it comes to women in portfolio management positions and and that is true and i do think it's an unfortunate case of last in first out in two periods tekken telecom bust 0809 and uh uh so that's unfortunate but i have the highest regard for the industry it is a heck of a lot of fun it's extremely challenging the world is our oyster as long as you're not playing the old game which is benchmark sensitivity as long as you really are investing in the future uh i think allocating allocating capital to its highest and best use in terms of what we described earlier increasing access uh solving the world's problems um there can't be anything more satisfying with that being said i hope you guys enjoyed this video you did find some value if you did please do big thumbs up go ahead but that being said i hope you guys enjoyed this video and you did find some value and i'll see you guys in my next video invest safe you
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