저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 쉬프는 2017년 트럼프 정책으로 인플레이션이 가속되며 금·금광주는 강세, 주식·채권은 약세, 이후 고통스러운 경기침체가 불가피하다고 주장한다. 금리 및 연준: 연준이 2016년 4회 인상을 못 했듯 2017년 3회 인상도 실행되지 않을 것으로 본다. 올해 1회도 어려울 수 있으나 가능성은 남아 있다. 단기 실질금리는 인플레이션 가속으로 하락할 것이다. 채권시장: 장기금리가 상승하며 채권 거품이 붕괴할 수 있다. 단기금리 인상이 없어도 장기금리는 오를 수 있다. 인플레이션 및 자산: 인플레이션은 금·외국통화·신흥국·원자재에 유리하지만 주식시장과 채권시장에는 불리하다. 금광주는 2016년 1분기 저점 이후 크게 올랐고 2017년은 2016년 수익의 작은 선금에 불과해 더 큰 상승이 예상된다고 강조한다. 무역정책: 트럼프의 NAFTA 재협상·TPP 탈퇴·관세 및 달러 약세는 값싼 수입품과 저금리라는 거품경제의 두 기둥을 흔들어 인플레이션과 주식·부동산 약세, 침체를 유발한다고 본다. 경기 전망: 과거 구조적 문제를 해결하려면 긴 침체를 통한 구조조정, 자산가격 하락, 금리 상승, 저축 증가가 필요하며 단기 해법은 없다고 주장한다. 트럼프는 이를 준비시키지 않았다고 비판한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 금광주·금이 2017년 최고 섹터가 될 것, 주식·채권·부동산은 약세, 침체는 길고 고통스러울 것이라는 비관적 장기 견해를 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
okay here at Vick 2017 I've got here Peter Schiff europacific capital.com now that's the website right my Canadian company Echelon Wealth Partners is exhibiting here okay uh and also gold money so gold money sure sure sure okay um we got a trump presidency um we've got uh Yellen talking about three uh hikes here coming up in the new year I know you're a guy who basically says this is something that's probably about ready to implode they can't raise she always says she's going to or at least telegraphs that but there's always a hidden message what are your thoughts well you know they should raise rates they should raise them a lot more than they've already raised them but the problem is you let the air out of the bubble which nobody wants to do and in fact Donald Trump when he campaigned said we had a big fat ugly bubble but doesn't talk about the Bubbles anymore because he owns the bubble and now he wants to keep it from deflating so I think we're going to get more more cheap money I doubt the FED will deliver on the three rate hikes in 2017 just like it failed to deliver on four for 2016 we only got one I don't even think we're going to get one this year but we may very well get one you know the FED is now made a it's now one a year so maybe we'll get another one I don't know but inflation is going to accelerate at a much faster Pace than the rate hik so regardless of whether the FED raises rates or not real interest rates are going down at least in the short run we'll see what happens to the bond market bubble because we could have a collapse in the long end and so maybe even if the FED doesn't raise short-term rates long-term rates could go higher especially if I'm right about a big pickup in inflation that's one thing I think that the markets do have right they're talking about Trum inflation I think we're going to have quite a bit of inflation but it's not going to be good for financial markets it's not going to be good for the stock market or certainly the bond market but it will be good for gold uh it will be good for foreign currencies and emerging markets and commodities so we're sitting here with 200 plus companies here one of yours um is that the way to play this thing or uh I mean yeah I think look there's a lot of gold mining companies I mean Gold's already off to a great start this year uh you know gold uh gold stocks again are the number one sector uh in 2017 they were by far the number one sector of 2016 gold stocks bottomed out in the first quarter of 2016 uh we've gone a a long way since then we had a bit of a pullback late last year especially after Trump won but I think this is going to be an even bigger year I think the gains that we had in 2016 are just a small down payment on much larger gains that we're going to get in 2017 and Beyond so as far as infrastructure goes um a lot of language you're uh uh read today uh he's going after NAFTA uh knocking the TPP down what does that spell globally I mean is he stying trade or is he accelerating trade well Trump doesn't necessarily understand that the two pillars that have been propping up our bubble economy have been cheap Foreign imports and artificially low interest rates and to the extent that we no longer have access to cheap Imports either because the dollar Falls or because we resurrect uh trade tariffs or a combination of both uh that knocks away one pillar and interest rates Rising would be the other one uh you know in we made a deal with the devil basically we you know just got rid of all of our manufacturing jobs but we still got to consume all the manufactured goods because we got them from the rest of the world but we didn't have to pay for them and I think we're going to be for a roote Awakening and Trump keeps talking about we should hire America we should buy from America okay well that's going to be a lot more expensive and if we have to buy American that means we can buy a lot less and we pay a lot more for what we buy but it also means higher inflation a weaker stock market a weaker real estate market and we're going to have to go through a recession and I think it's going to be a very painful one we've been talking about forever they keep prolonging it prolonging it prolonging it can they keep prolonging it well the longer they prolong it the worse they ultimately make it hopefully we're getting closer to to biting the bullet the the problem is that Trump has not prep prepared anybody for that he he has talked about as if you know everything's going to get better and it's not going to be any short-term pain it's like a miracle rate weight loss cure you know just elect me and you're going to lose 40 pounds you don't have to diet you don't have the exercise but that's not reality we have a screwed up economy and it's been screwed up for a long time before Trump got here but the only way to write this economic ship is to go through a very protracted recession where we restructure for the economy and that means falling asset prices rising interest rates that means we stop spending we stop we start saving again and all this you know takes some time and there is no short-term cure you just can't renegotiate our trade deals and expect all the problems to go away no I agreed whole hardly I why don't you give it out your website so everyone can follow you well you can follow me at you know eac.org gold.com and goldmoney.com and if people want to follow me on online you know listen to my podcast at shiff radio.com or you know go to my YouTube channel follow me there I put out a lot of video blogs I put out a lot of content I mean I'm the real news right the fake news is what you get through conventional media but if you want to know what's really happening you got to listen to what I have to say I great watched you for years uh saw you battle on Fox and uh saw you in a Walmart parking lot one time I get your life threatened I think so appreciate your time thanks Peter thanks a lot
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