저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 취임 약 5개월 시점, 피터 시프는 트럼프 정부가 근본 문제를 해결하지 못하며 재정적자와 연준의 금리 정책으로 경기침체와 QE4가 예상된다고 주장한다. 재정 측면: 트럼프의 예산안은 재량지출만 소폭 삭감하고 사회보장·메디케어·국방비와 국채이자는 늘어나며, 의무지출과 이자만으로 세수를 초과한다. 의회가 삭감폭을 더 줄여 실제 긴축은 일어나지 않는다고 본다. 시장 평가: 다우와 나스닥이 신고가를 기록하지만 이는 2008년 금융위기 전과 오바마 시절에도 있었던 버블이 더 커진 것이라고 주장한다. 트럼프가 후보 시절 '거대한 버블'이라 했던 것을 지금은 강세장이라 부른다는 점을 지적하며, 버블은 결국 터질 것이라 예측한다. 금 전망: 미국 투자자들은 최근 금 매수를 줄였고 US Mint 판매도 사상 최저 분기 수준이라고 전한다. 금 가격은 연초 대비 S&P500보다 많이 올랐지만 주식으로 몰리는 흐름이 실수라며 주식을 팔고 금을 더 사야 한다고 권한다. 다만 단기적으로는 현재 1260달러대에서 1350달러 돌파가 관건이며, 연말까지 1500달러 근처도 가능하다고 본다. 달러지수가 6개월 저점 부근이라 약세가 이어지면 금에 강세 요인이 된다고 설명한다. 리스크 및 전망: 연준이 금리를 다시 0%로 낮추고 QE4(규모는 QE1~3보다 큼)를 시행할 것이며, 미국은 다음 경기침체에 직면해 연간 재정적자가 2조 달러에 이를 수 있다고 전망한다. 현재는 2008년 위기 이후 '허리케인의 눈' 같은 소강기이며 본격적인 폭풍은 곧 온다고 본다. 고객들은 트럼프 당선 이후 낙관으로 관리계좌를 환매해 주식에 몰리고 있으며, 이는 타이밍상 재앙이라고 우려한다. 금은 50~100달러 단위로 점차 오를 것이라고 예측한다. 가격 예측 요약: 금 1~3개월 상승 전망(1350달러 돌파 전제), 미국 주식시장(다우·나스닥) 버블 붕괴 전망, 달러 약세 전망.
다듬은 글
back here in Vancouver at the international metal writers conference with the chairman of Schiff gold Peter Schiff Peter good to see you nice to see you so uh we're about 5 months into a trump presidency here uh let's give a little bit of a report card here well I mean I guess he's probably doing a lot better than the media gives him credit but you know the reality is he inherited a very very bad situation and it's going to get a lot worse you know and I think there's too much false uh optimism out there on the part of people who voted for Trump I mean obviously the people who didn't vote for him probably don't feel that way but I think a lot of people actually believe that this is a game Cher that he's going to drain the swamp that he's going to solve all the problems and people are now optimistic unfortunately none of this is true I mean nothing that Trump is likely to do is going to make any difference as far as the the the course that we're on it's pretty much said and of course if you look at what Trump has done thus far there are no significant spending cuts even in his budget where they do propose Some Cuts in discretionary spending they don't cut anything in entitlement Social Security Medicare of course uh in National Defense all three of those goes up as does interest on the national debt in fact if you add the entitlements and interest on the debt that already exceeds the tax revenue so they're talking about making Cuts in a small part of the budget but of course Congress is going to whittle that down those cuts aren't even going to happen so governments going to continue to grow the fed's going to keep printing money we are continuing to head off the edge of an economic Cliff Dallas set highs the NASDAQ um gold where where where's gold go here well the Dows making new highs I mean it made new highs uh going into the 2008 financial crisis it made plenty of new highs under President Obama so the bubble of course when Donald Trump was a candidate he said it was a big fat ugly bubble well now that he owns the bubble all of a sudden it's just a bull market but it's the same bubble only bigger uh and I think it's going to bust meanwhile gold I think is getting ready again for a move in the opposite direction but you have the opposite of a bubble in Gold certainly if you look at the United States Americans are buying less gold now than they've done you know since the bull market began in 1999 2000 uh sales from the US Mint have collapsed at shift gold I think we just had our weakest quarter since the company's been in existence and it's not just my firm it's industrywide Americans are not buying gold even though gold prices year to date are up more than the S&P 500 but the people who typically buy gold in America voted for Trump and they're no longer worried about the economy so they're not buying gold they're buying stocks instead and I think they're making a big mistake they should be selling their stocks and buying even more gold what makes a guy like you not sleep at night in this market um well I'm not worried about the market I mean I you know I know that uh it's the the dollar ultimately that's going to collapse and I know that most people are on the wrong side of that trade I think what worries me is certainly some of my clients I we've had clients so far this year even though our accounts are doing great year-to date we're way ahead of the US market in fact we're ahead of the US market since January of last year but again a lot of my clients voted for Trump and they're feeling optimistic now and I can see that in some of the redemptions we get out of our managed accounts and out of our brokerage accounts where people are really throwing in the towel even though they're winning the fight and they're getting suckered into the Mania in the US Stock Market and these are people who haven't bought US stocks for 8 years because when Obama was President they were too afraid to buy US stocks of course they were much cheaper then but now they're confident to buy because Trump is president but timing wise this is a disaster people did the same thing after eight years of Bill Clinton you know people bought stocks when George Bush was elected and Bush was horrible for a stock market I mean the stock market lost a lot of value when Bush was president the same thing is probably going to happen while Trump is president what was the alternative I guess uh how how would you see this country under under a Clint presidency what would be different you talk about now Hillary Clinton look I mean look it would pretty much be similar the way it is now I mean it's not like anything substantive has changed I think that Clinton would be a worse president and I think that the policy agenda that she would have would be more destructive but the real problem is the the the the policy mistakes of the past are already here and we can't get rid of them look we can't even get rid of Obamacare we're stuck with it even though Trump campaigned on getting rid of it even though all the Republicans for the last several years they kept voting to repeal it when Clinton when when Obama was President and and they knew he would veto it but now that there's a Republican president that would supposedly sign off on the repeal the Republicans don't want to repeal it so nothing is changing the government again continues to get bigger the FED continues to keep interest rates artificially low they're getting ready to go back to to zero forget about all the rate hikes we're nearing the end of the cycle they're going to go back to zero we're going to get qe4 whatever they're going to call it it's going to be bigger than qe1 2 and 3 we're headed for another recession in the US we're going to have $2 trillion doll a year budget def budget deficits next time not just one trillion we're going to hit two trillion that ought to spell good news for gold it is good news for gold if people just understood how good the news is for gold but I think once people start figuring out the price of gold is going to start to rise in $50 $100 increments so before that happens you just want to take advantage of this Lull in the storm right we're in the eye of an economic hurricane right now people think that 2008 was the end of it that was when we entered the storm now we're in the eye we're coming to the rest of the storm shortly so for now it's just a good time to buy goal while there's so much complacency so if we're having this chat on uh New Year's Eve um we we a lot higher here Gold West well who knows I mean you're talking about what is that six months from now I do think we'll be higher how much higher it's hard to say I mean right now where are we around 1260 on gold I mean I do think that if we can get through 1350 if we can do that before the fall then we could you know be you know closer to, 1500 by the end of the year but we just got to get through this 1300 1350 but at some point Gold's going to take off and a lot of it depends on the dollar you know the dollar Index now has been weakening we're near a six-month low in the dollar we start to see some more weakness in the dollar Index ultimately that's going to be very bullish for there you have it Peter Schiff chairman of shiff gold thanks Peter sure thing
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