저자: DavidSacks,ChamathPalihapitiya,JasonCalacanis · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 출연자들은 비트코인 조정을 매수 기회로 보며 장기적으로 제도권 자산화를 전망하지만, 중국의 규제 강도와 세금 이슈에 대해서는 의견이 엇갈린다. 비트코인 조정 국면: 6만 달러대에서 3만 6~3만 7천 달러로 하락한 상황을 두고 '새로운 상승 전 좋은 진입 지점'이라는 견해가 제시됨. 과거에도 급락 후 신고점을 경신해 왔다는 근거. 제도권 수용: 월가 대형 기관과 기금이 1년간 비트코인을 정식 자산군으로 보고 대규모 자본을 배분해 왔으며 이 흐름은 바뀌지 않을 것이라는 주장. 데이비드 루빈스타인(카를라일 공동창업자)의 발언을 인용해 수요가 커서 정부가 결국 지원할 수밖에 없다고 설명. 규제 비유: 냅스터·카자, 비트토렌트 사례처럼 금지하려 해도 막히지 않았고 결국 규제된 서비스 형태로 흡수됐다는 비유로, 암호화폐도 주류 규제 체계에 편입될 것이라는 전망. 중국 규제: 중국이 중국 내 비트코인 거래는 강하게 억누를 수 있으나 서구에서의 검열 저항성은 막지 못한다는 견해. 반론으로 중국은 VPN·채굴까지 강력히 단속해 왔고 지하화될 것이라는 지적이 제기됨. 미국 IRS 보고 의무(1만 달러 초과 거래): 탈세 목적 차단 효과는 있을 수 있으나 신고 투명성 강화 정도이며 비트코인 사용을 막지는 못한다는 평가. 불법 용도(실크로드 논리) 비중은 작다는 반박. 자본 통제 국가의 수요: 자본 통제와 정치적 압박이 심한 국가일수록 재산을 디지털 금처럼 보관하려는 수요가 커져 비트코인의 핵심 사용처가 될 것이라는 주장. 리스크: 중국 규제 강화, 과세·신고 규정, 가격 급락 가능성은 언급되었으나 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
and uh we are now seeing a pullback on bitcoin from you know uh mid 60s to uh you know now into the 36 37 000 per bitcoin do you think this is the end of the beginning beginning of the end it's the beginning of the beginning david rubinstein was on cnbc today and david rubinstein for those you guys don't know is um was co-founder of carlyle group you know more blue chip and blue blooded you cannot get and very connected in washington and you know he said it best where he said you know effectively the people want this and the government will uh have no choice except to support it because you can't take something like this with this much institutional and retail demand away so we have to go to the place where now crypto needs to be like everything else and maybe the crypto stands get upset with that because they don't like it that you know a bunch of their parents are all of a sudden going to be buying tokens and stuff but they got to get over it um then this stuff should be you know transacted in the same way you transact anything else you buy it you sell it you get a tax return you pay your taxes and you move on this reminds me of the transition that we all went through with i don't know if you remember kazaa and napster and bittorrent like everybody all the we a lot of our contemporaries in their 30s you know whatever 10 20 years ago were like you can't stop it you can't stop it and it got stopped you know like you made it illegal and you prosecuted people and then you came up with solutions that were regulated like spotify or you know netflix and you gave the consumers what they wanted so david you think this is a similar path right now that we're going through which is the crypto zealots and the and the in the stands are going to basically have to get used to as chemat saying their parents buying it and crypto not being this underground thing but being regulated in a major way in the united states and is that a good or bad thing i i think the thing that that's happening quietly behind the scenes is that major wall street players institutions endowments and so forth over the past year have decided that bitcoin and crypto is a legitimate asset class and they've been allocating to it huge huge pools of capital balance sheet capital have been allocating into it i don't think that's gonna change this is probably a pretty good buying opportunity we've seen these crashes and bitcoin many many times over the years it plummets down and then it goes back up and it eventually goes back up and reaches a new peak so this is probably a pretty good entry point for the next rally we don't know when that's going to be but the whole point of bitcoin is that it's censorship resistant and china can do its best to try and stamp it out but i don't think they'll be successful with that you don't you're so wrong about that that is the most naive take worst take you've ever had how's china gonna stop bitcoin uh how do they stop vpns they put people in jail how do they stop religion they put people in jail they may make it incredibly hard for chinese citizens to get a hold of bitcoin i agree with that but they're not gonna be able to stop bitcoin they're not going to stop bitcoin in the west but they will stop it in china 100 full stop and you know how many servers are in china i mean go talk to the people who were in tiananmen square about the miners will have to move out the miners miners are done and then if it'll be an underground thing it'll be like having a vpn which is five years in jail for selling vpns what do you think about the irs requirement that you have to report any bitcoin transaction over ten thousand dollars do you think that that and americans can be prosecuted for not reporting right so i i don't know fine okay so what do it so yes get over it but i do think that will get rid of 20 of the transactions that might have been the first this is the silk road fallacy that you know that the only legitimate use for crypto or i said 20 i didn't say oh okay fine but so maybe that makes it that small fraction of illegitimate or illicit use cases no sex i think the point is um that they're trying to chase down it's not about illegal use cases it's about not reporting a taxable gain on your bitcoin before you use that money to buy something so sure of course it's about tax evasion but look but that's not that's not going to stop bitcoin usage um you know if smart people who've been trading bitcoin been paying taxes on it for years that's not i don't think that's really an issue if you were in china and you created your wealth in china or many many other countries all over the world and there are currency restrictions and controls and the government was asserting more and more power and we're putting business leaders under house arrest and and seeking to put them under their thumb you'd be trying to convert as much of your net worth into bitcoin as possible so that all you have to do is if you ever had to flee the country you wouldn't have to have dollars in your suitcase or gold bricks or diamonds you'd simply have to have a password in your brain that you could access at any computer terminal when you got out of the country and so that i think that sort of digital gold is a phenomenal use case of bitcoin and the more oppressive all these countries become the more they increase the value of that use case
Comments 0