저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 투자 조언을 명시적으로 하지 않으며, 시청자는 스스로 공부해 판단해야 한다는 취지의 대화. 리비안 IPO와 기업가치(약 1,200억 달러) 등 당시 시장 과열 사례를 언급하며 논의를 시작함. 암호화폐 투자는 프로젝트의 목적과 토큰 경제학, 개발자 활동 등을 먼저 조사해야 한다는 원칙을 강조함. 거시 요인과 본인 위험 감수 수준도 고려해야 한다고 말함. 한 출연자는 암호화폐 강세장이 와도 개별 코인은 전체 사이클 하락으로 손실 날 수 있다고 지적함. 드러켄밀러 등 거시 트레이더가 과잉 통화 발행에 따른 위험을 경고하고 있다는 언급도 있음. 타인의 조언만 따르면 결국 손실을 본다는 입장이며, 전문성과 시간이 부족하면 투자하지 않는 것이 낫다는 의견이 제시됨. 마지막으로 모든 출연자가 조언이 아니며 각자 판단과 책임을 져야 한다고 재확인함. 대상 자산별 구체적 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
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to the issue of hey we're not giving investment advice here we are all capital allocators and startup creators so we're talking about our day-to-day lives here nobody should interpret this as investment advice and especially not in a world now i don't know if you guys saw what happened with vivian this week i don't know how we don't talk about a company with essentially no public sales they've sold 148 cars to their employees it's worth 120 billion dollars any at freiburg did you see this ipo any thoughts on it um seems like a high school do you have investment advice for the audience that you'd like to give tell me what rivian does wait can you play that video that you found that you shared with everyone you have that video queued up okay well i we we do have it i think we could queue it up did you see this yet who is this guy no i haven't oh that yeah yeah well but just so i don't want to beat this point to death but i just think it's so important for the audience that what they should be getting out of the show if they're fans is maybe like advice on how to think yeah what are the critical things critical thinking how we think about investors first principle tips exactly so look if you want to invest in crypto first of all like go understand like what all these different projects or blockchains do and figure out what is the purpose of the token in that system what are the token economics yeah does it even make sense or is it just a scam then if it's a if it's something like a blockchain go research how many projects are have developers on them and how much code is being checked in and maybe open a wallet and buy some nfts and buy some eth and transfer it and learn just how to set up your internet connection right right this was 1995.
right exactly and then on top of all that you got to consider macro forces because i mean and i think you know my friends at multi-coin would fully concede this that you know it could be the case that if there's a crypto bust over the next year and this thing you know crypto has gone through boom and bust cycles for many many years it's the standard so you could have a situation in which for example solana flips eth and yet still goes down in value because there's an overall bus cycle so you know you have to consider the macroeconomic factors as well so there's a lot of things to consider here and then you also have to consider your own risk tolerance and you know what is appropriate for your portfolio and i mean when do you need your money are you a 25 year old everything is at all time highs and the two smartest men in the world are selling not just not just them by the way there are other guys that are heavily on the other side waiting for this whole thing to go like druckenmiller has been very vocal about this um and he's uh he's been the best macro trader in the last 30 years so his position is what exactly that we're printing too much money and we're in a lot of trouble so you know look i mean generally there is um i think a good point of view being shared here uh which is you know understanding how to think about what you're investing in and what your your expectations are versus relying on someone's advice or opinion on what to do if you have to rely on someone else's advice or opinion on what to do you're gonna eventually lose money you should not be in that investigation you should not be in the market because guess what anyone that's giving you advice or opinions is gonna make money if you do what they tell you to do if you do what they tell you to do end of story so at some point they're gonna all make money and you're gonna end up losing money and it's a it's you know it's it's it's a better game to play to learn how to kind of be thoughtful about where's your money going what are you investing in and it takes a lot of time and a lot of money i've been sitting here silently as you guys have been talking deeply about solana and ethereum and bitcoin and the crypto markets because i realized so much of um you know what's needed to be successful in entering this market is a depth of understanding a depth of knowledge my time is highly limited i have spent no time on understanding crypto markets because it's so deep and it's so fluid it's changing every day it's changing every week so if i can't get smart enough to feel confident about the opinions and decisions that i would be making as an investor i decide not to invest and i stay out and so i'm not an active crypto investor you're a specialist and you're on the razor's edge on synthetic biology and so many other whatever it is there are there are other areas where it's better for me to spend my time and my energy and i've chosen to do that versus being drawn into what view what feels like a very exciting kind of you know turbulent time um there are other areas that i kind of spend my time on i just kind of try to recognize that maybe i don't know what i'm doing if i were to try and get involved here and so i'd rather stay out and i think that's counsel forever for anyone you know if you're going to make an investment it's important to feel confident about the knowledge and the depth needed to kind of be different than the rest i'll build on your point like when i when i started doing my spax i started to write these one pagers and those one pages were artifacts for me to hold myself accountable for how i saw something in a moment in time and then to be able to see whether it was tracking to that and then also to share it to other people a starting point as david said a journey where they should then if they're curious go and do their own work it turned out not enough people were doing the work so then i had to start adding disclaimers to these things saying hey guys uh i'm not telling you to buy this please be abundantly clear these next backs that i i will eventually launch you're going to see an entire like in red block letters like please don't buy this right because to your point it doesn't matter what you say people want a lazy easy way out and so i just want to reiterate what all of you guys said none of us are dispensing advice we are not telling you to do anything please do your own work and please come to your conclusion it is your responsibility and if you're not sure go and look at your children in the face or your significant other in the face you are responsible to them and so do your own work
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