저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인플레이션은 쉽게 잡히지 않으며 2020년대 내내 높게 유지될 것이므로, 시장의 물가 둔화 기대는 잘못이다. 인플레이션 지속성 주장: 시장은 매번 물가가 낮아질 것이라 기대하지만 번번이 예상보다 높게 나온다. 일시적(transitory) 인플레이션이라는 말은 틀렸고, 고점 이후에도 계속 같은 기대 오류가 반복된다. 금리와 통화정책: 연준이 금리를 4%대로 올려도 실질금리는 여전히 마이너스라 저축을 억제하고 부채를 부추겨 인플레이션을 자극한다. 문제의 뿌리는 2020년 이전 1980~2000년대부터 누적된 통화정책 실수다. 가격 근거: 펩시의 전년 대비 가격 인상률 17.7%가 정부 CPI(8.5%대)보다 현실 생활비 상승을 더 잘 보여준다고 주장한다. 기업들은 초기에 비용을 흡수하다 이제 가격을 올리고 있다. 통계 근거: 1980년대 대부분 연도와 1990년대 거의 전 기간 인플레이션은 2%를 크게 웃돌았다. 2013~2020년 저인플레이션은 예외였으며, 2010년대 후반 이후 다시 상승했다. 연준 대차대조표는 금융위기 전 1조 달러 미만에서 코로나 이후 약 9조 달러로 늘었다. 쌍둥이 적자(무역·재정)도 역사상 가장 크다. 시장 반응 비판: 높은 인플레이션 발표 때마다 달러는 강세, 금은 약세를 보였다. 인플레이션이 높으면 통화 가치는 떨어지므로 달러 매수는 논리에 맞지 않고, 금은 인플레이션 헤지이므로 상승해야 한다. 시장은 연준이 인플레이션 싸움에서 이길 것이라 믿어 금리 인상이 더 길어질 것으로 보고 달러를 산다. 전망: 인플레이션은 이번 10년 내내 2%로 돌아오기 어렵고, 오히려 과거 평균보다 훨씬 높은 수준으로 회귀할 가능성이 있다. 시장이 이 현실을 받아들이기 전까지는 판타지에 머물러 있다는 입장이다. 달러 약세·금 강세 쪽에 무게를 둔 발언이다. 리스크: 연준이 더 강하게 긴축하면 금리 상승이 달러 강세를 지속시킬 수 있다는 시장 논리도 함께 언급된다.
다듬은 글
in fact it doesn't make any sense that the markets continue to expect better numbers on inflation yet continue to be surprised when those numbers come out worse than expected again the classic definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting a different result in fact the insanity goes all the way back to the days when everybody just said inflation was transitory because I remember we'd keep getting a hotter than expected inflation number and everybody said oh don't worry about it it's going to go away it's transitory and so each time we got a new report everybody thought that the number would be lower and everybody was surprised when it wasn't lower or it went higher and in fact then when they kind of went from transitory inflation to Peak inflation every time we got a number that made a new high they kept repeating the same phrase okay now inflation is peaked oh no now inflation is peaked and now they just keep expecting inflation to go lower because the FED has raised interest rates we're now at 3 and a qu% and we have this slowing economy and so everybody expects lower inflation yet every month investors are surprised by higher than expected inflation this High inflation is not going to go away it's not going to go away anytime soon in fact it's not going to go away any time in this decade we have a lot of inflation in the pipeline and we have yet to really begun to deal with it most people think that we're only suffering from the monetary policy mistakes made after Co and If the Fed had simply started hiking rat sooner and stopped doing QE sooner we wouldn't be experiencing all this inflation no we would be experiencing all this inflation because the mistakes started decades before we are paying the price for monetary policy mistakes going back into the early 1990s or even late 1980s it's not simply the mistakes that were made after 2020 it was all the mistakes that were made prior to 2020 but another reason that inflation is not going to go away is because we still have negative real interest rates despite the tightening we still have stimulative monetary policy even when the FED hikes rates to 4% in November you're still half the inflation rate you're still discouraging people from saving and encouraging people to take on more debt you are stoking inflation's fire you're not putting it out but even worse than the headline number was the core now remember the core is more important to the FED than the headline because it strips out food and energy even though food and energy are probably the most important parts of the CPI the FED likes to ignore those and focus on everything else but if you focus on everything else that 6% rise is a big number but in other words we're going in the wrong direction of course CPI is going up not down the FED is getting further away from its goal of returning core CPI to 2% in fact we're still more than triple 2% and again what investors don't understand is we're not going to go from 8.2% or 88.5% inflation whatever the peak was so far all the way back down to 2% so easy it's going to take a long time for inflation to return to 2% again I doubt it's going to return to 2% any time during this decade one piece of news that did come out this week was Pepsi which reported its earnings but also revealed that it has increased its prices by 177% year-over-year now that number dwarfs the official rise of the CPI it's basically double a little bit more than double the official increase in the CPI now I think what's happening at Pepsi is more indic ative of what's actually happening to the cost of living than the CPI because Pepsi's prices are real prices there's no hedonics there's no substitution they are what they are and they've raised prices by 177% that probably reflects what's going on with inflation because remember Pepsi doesn't want to raise prices it's trying not to and in fact remember early days in the inflation all of these companies were eating these price hikes they thought it was transitory and so they were absorbing the higher costs they weren't raising prices if you recall back then I said that eventually all these companies are going to throw in the towel on transitory inflation and they're going to start raising their prices because they're going to realize that the transitory inflation is permanent and they need higher prices to recover their higher costs and that is exactly what's going on so a 177% inflation rate to me is more believable than the government's eight and a half and what Pepsi is selling is what Americans are buying this is what's going on with prices but getting back to these numbers the inflation rate in 1984 though was back up to 4.3% 1985 3 and a half we had one year of below 2% inflation during the entire decade of the 1980s and that was 1986 when it was 1.9 but the very next year it shot back up to 3.66 then 1988 it was 4.08 1989 it was 4.83 and in 1980 it was 5.4 these are some pretty big numbers nowhere near 2% and then if you look at the inflation rates during the 1990s when we really started to have the change in CPI Incorporated we only had one year during the 1990s where inflation was below 2% that was 19 1998 when it was 1.55% so these were much higher rates than the 2% that the FED is hoping to get down to but the problem is we have printed so much money since then the debts are so much larger that bringing an inflation rate down to the level we had in the 1980s and 1990s or 2000s is nearly impossible the only time we really had inflation of around 2% was after the 200 financial crisis in 2010 we had a 1.64% year 2013 we had 1.46 2014 1.62 2015 was the absolute bottom we only had an inflation rate of 0.12% so as far as the Fed was concerned that was a very dangerous year because we treaded very close to deflation we didn't quite get it but prices barely Rose then we had a 1.26% rise in 2016 then we started to have inflation moving back up 2017 2018 it was back up to 2.44% and then we started to head back down in 2019 down to 1.81% and then 20120 was the last year of sub 2% inflation at 1.23 and then it really started to shoot up in 2021 at 4.7 but my point is we're not going down to 2% % the aberration was the inflation of 2% or less that we got following the 2008 financial crisis but before the coid crisis but now what we're going to have is a lot of high inflation to make up for all those years of low inflation it's a reversion to the mean except we're really not going to revert to the mean we're going to revert to something much higher than the mean because of massive and unprecedented money printing that has gone on not just since coid but before coid look at what's happened to the fed's balance sheet it's gone from under a trillion before the 2008 financial crisis to almost 9 trillion postco and look how many years the Fed was flooding the economy with near free money and the financial bubbles that have been inflated dwarf anything that had been inflated prior to this time period so this has been unprecedented monetary inflation and it's going to be an unprecedented increase in consumer prices that Americans are going to deal with look at our trade deficits look at our budget deficits the twin deficits have never been this big and they are major drivers of inflation so this idea that inflation is going to come down is completely wrong the question is when are the markets going to come to terms with this reality because so far they're living in fantasy land because once once again when we got this hotter than expected inflation number the immediate reaction was a rise in the dollar and a selloff in gold and the same action was repeated on Friday more dollar strength more gold weakness why higher inflation is bad for the Dollar by definition it means the dollar is losing value it's losing more value than you thought so if something is losing value faster than you thought why would you want to buy it even more the same thing with gold inflation is going up not down gold is an inflation hedge you buy gold when there's inflation well we got more inflation than the markets expected yet everybody dumped gold again it's the same reason every time we get hotter than expected inflation instead of the markets coming to terms with the reality that the FED is losing its inflation fight the markets just believe that the FED is now going to have to fight even harder to win but nobody doubts that the FED will win and nobody doubts that the FED will fight as hard as they have to to win and so since they believe that the FED has to fight Harder They want to buy the dollar and sell gold because fighting harder means even higher interest rates
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