저자: Nick · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 PSTH 스팩 투자 손실 사태를 다룬 영상으로, 결론은 '투자자 본인의 과도한 투기(외가격 단기 콜옵션 몰빵)가 주된 원인이며 유명 헤지펀드 매니저를 맹신하지 말고 한 종목에 전재산을 걸지 말라'는 것이다. [배경] 애크먼은 퍼싱스퀘어 캐피털 창업자로, JC페니·밸리언트 파마 등 과거 투자 실패와 허벌라이프 공매도 캠페인(약 5천만 달러 PR 비용) 사례가 언급된다. [셧다운 논란] 애크먼이 셧다운을 옹호하는 방송을 하며 2,600만 달러 신용스프레드 공매도로 약 26억 달러를 번 뒤 곧 입장을 바꿔 강세로 돌아섰다고 비판한다. 발언 이익 추구에 대한 경계 메시지. [스팩 구조] 스팩은 현금만 있는 페이퍼컴퍼니로, 투자자는 합병 대상 기업이 정해지기 전에 돈을 넣는 구조라 기업 정보 없이 베팅하는 셈이라고 설명한다. [PSTH 사태] 애크먼의 랩 영상 공유, 유니콘 기업(스트라이프·스타링크) 합병 루머 등으로 개인투자자들이 2021년 2월 약 33달러 고점 부근에서 외가격 단기 콜옵션을 대거 매수했다. 실제 합병은 유니버설뮤직 계열 스핀오프 10% 지분이었고, SEC가 뉴욕증권거래소 요건 미충족을 이유로 거래를 사실상 무산시키면서 주가는 약 20달러로 하락했다. 콜옵션은 만기 소멸되었다. [피해 사례] 1억 원 안팎 손실을 본 정신과 의사, 가족 자산 30만 유로를 투자한 독일 대학생, 1.6백만 달러를 날린 소프트웨어 엔지니어 등이 소개된다. 한 엔지니어는 '모든 것이 내 잘못'이라고 인정했다. [결론] 스팩 투자자 대다수가 손실을 보는 통계(2015~2020년 중앙값 -29%)가 인용되며, 애크먼 맹목 추종과 '배팅 농사(bet the farm)'를 피하고 소액 분산 투자할 것을 권고한다. 영상 속 사례는 특정 종목 추천이 아닌 교훈 중심이다.
다듬은 글
hey guys it's nick and in this video i want to talk about the craziness that's going on with the whole bill ackman pershing square capital spec a lot of people seem to be losing a lot of money on it so i'm gonna dive into that and see what's going on and surprisingly uh the people at fault here are probably not who you think they are so let's start off with a little bit of background if you don't know who bill ackman is he started pershing square capital a hedge fund back in 2004 and he's kind of like a celebrity hedge fund manager he's always in the news he's always on cnbc his face is always out there so he has been known to uh have a few public investments some that went okay some that didn't go so well in 2010 he bought 18 of jc penney around 22 a share and ended up selling it somewhere around 13 a share around 2016 he lost a few billion dollars on valiant pharmaceuticals that company that really blew up really quickly went down a lot so he lost a lot of money on that as well a few years back bill ackman was shorting herbalife and said that they're kind of a pyramid scheme and carl icahn actually took the other side of the trade and the stock went up and bill ackman lost a lot of money and bill ackman actually spent about 50 million dollars on a public relations campaign to kind of talk down herbalife stock so uh he actually put money into talking this thing down to help his short position but to me the best indication of what kind of person bill ackman is as a money manager is what he did right around during the shutdown and i'm not just picking on him most people in the hedge fund business are like this they will sell out everybody if they can make a few extra dollars so always keep that in mind that when they're out giving information to the public they're doing it not to help the public but to help themselves make more money so i actually did a video about this a year ago before the shutdown happened he shorted 26 million dollars in credit spreads and made about 2.6 billion dollars but not before he went on these shows like cnbc and was urging the president to shut down the whole country for 30 days saying that hell is coming all of this while he was short and not even a week later he covered his short and got long some of the same companies he was saying could go to zero like hilton and then came out and said that he is now very bullish so he will say whatever it takes to make a whole lot of money for himself and his investors that said i don't really blame him for what happened with this back so this article is about how millennials lost millions on bill ackman's spack implosion and from the title you would think that the spac fell like 90 or something like that but that's not actually the case now for those that don't know what a spec is i've done a video on it explaining it really simply and what it is is basically investors investing money in a stock of a company that has nothing but cash that's looking to buy a business so you're basically a box with a bunch of money in it and you're hoping that the manager goes and finds a good company to buy within a certain time frame and if he doesn't then the money gets returned and there's a few other details but that's basically it you're putting your money up uh in the hopes that the manager of this back is gonna find this great company and you guys are gonna make a lot of money so to me it seems that's the first mistake if you're putting up a lot of money in something like this that you don't even know what company bill ackman is gonna buy with your money that's mistake number one so let's look at some of the claims of the people who lost money here like this guy a 35 year old unmarried chicago psychiatrist who lost nearly a million dollars investing in call options on the pre-merger entity meaning he bought call options before they even announced that they found the company to buy so basically just speculating so this back psth was touted by ackman to be investor friendly and ackman even tweeted a rap video about spax minting money in february 2021 and ackman even joked about marrying a unicorn when talking about his spax launch last july let's go see that rap video that he was talking about so here's bill ackman's twitter february 8th and he put this video here by this rapper cassius cuvee spack dream now i don't want to play for a copyright but uh it's a guy rapping about how great spacks are and that kind of stuff um that's fine if the guy wants to rap about it but if you're bill ackman that has the biggest spack in history something like 4 billion dollars i don't think you would want to be putting this on your twitter feed because it can be misconstrued that you're kind of pumping it up so to speak so i mean that's mistake number two if you're buying this spec because bill ackman is posting some rap video about us back and you say that the video literally single-handedly caused the stock to rise 10 the investor told ii it was like okay this is coming very soon if you don't get in now you're going to miss it now here's where i have to put all the blame on the actual investor and very little on bill ackman in this case even though i would not trust bill ackman to give me good investment advice especially if i'm not his client but here this guy who lost this money said whatever money i had i pretty much was putting it all into buying more of it he said of his purchases june 18 2021 25 strike call options the stock traded at 23 at the time leaving the options to be a total loss so let's take a look at that june 18th so the stock traded at its high around 33 dollars in february coincidentally right around the time when he posted that rap video and this guy was buying calls all along the way it says in another article but he loaded up here at around 23 when the stock was 23 he was buying 25 out of the money calls and so the stock is now 20 dollars so he is crying about a stock going from 23 to 20 and he lost a million dollars doing that uh whose fault is that that is his own fault for buying out of the money short dated calls in the hopes that something was going to happen some news was going to happen and make the stock go back towards something like that the fact that he lost a million dollars from the stock moving from only twenty three dollars down to twenty dollars that can happen to any stock uh it could happen to microsoft apple whatever it doesn't mean that there's fraud involved it means that he did something really risky and really uh a real big gamble a big speculation so why did this psychiatrist and others on reddit go all in with these out of the money short dated calls well because they thought something was going to happen soon and that ackman's spack was going to merge with a unicorn like stripe or elon musk's starlink and so ackman didn't deny these rumors and he even joked about marrying a unicorn when he launched his back last july but a deal was finally closed on june 4th and it wasn't a unicorn like stripe or starlink it was actually a 10 stake in a upcoming spin-off from the vendi of universal music group but within a few weeks the sec stunned ackman and investors essentially killing the deal by telling his lawyers that it did not meet the new york stock exchange requirements for spec long story short the stock is sitting around twenty dollars so this psychiatrist is now struggling to make quarterly tax payments to the irs and 350 grand in student loans and there are 16 others that in institutional investor interviewed for this article one guy a 31 year old german college student put his family's 300 000 in savings most of it from his grandparents into ackman's back and he's down about 80 000 euros so far and here's another guy that says i looked up to ackman and he's studying finance while working part-time at citigroup and was hoping to use his tontine winnings to pay his college tuition instead he has to take on a second job after losing so much money trading the psth options adam was one of ackman's biggest fans helping start on twitter what became known as the psth support group which became self-acknowledged cult idolizing ackman okay that's that's probably your second problem right there idolizing any guy that is out there to make as much money for his investors not for you the support group members admired ackman's social conscience and obsessed over his handsome looks and silver hair while scanning his every word or tweet for clues about the eventual spat target yeah if you're investing based on somebody's looks or their silver hair you're probably doing something really wrong these young investors were aware that there's a lot of froth or even fraud in the stock market which has become a hunting ground for short sellers but the tontards or tantanites as they began to call themselves were convinced that ackman's back was different oh boy now as with anything that's hot for a minute in the stock market or investing everybody piles in and then it usually underperforms and that's what's happened with spax showing that most investors in spax have lost money over time with a renaissance capital study last year showing a median loss of 29 percent between 2015 and september 2020 for companies shares post merger hackman's first back with burger king notably has defied the odds with a 19 annualized gain over almost a decade and this story of this other guy who lost 1.6 million dollars that he saved over 20 years as a software engineer and never invested in the stock market until 2020 because he did not trust the stock market but what does he do he invests his entire 1.6 million dollars into the ackman back because his friends were talking it up ackman just sounded very confident i trusted the guy i thought he knew what he was doing he says well hackman does know what he's doing you may not know what you're doing and so here's another mistake or it's not a mistake it's really greed he says at first the software engineer bought common stock but later he says like an amateur he transferred shares into expensive in the money call options with a strike price of 22 well below the 30 dollars where the stock was trading at the time i thought it was safe he says and his account actually reached 2 million dollars at one point but he was expecting that it would reach 4 million dollars instead they expired worthless on july 16th a few days before pacman announced the sec had torpedoed his plans and this is the smartest thing this guy said right here everything is my fault the software engineer says it's not bill's fault and this is 100 true now here it says ackman knew that retail investors already lost money buying call options on his back and they yelled about it on reddit and twitter every day and so when ackman reluctantly acknowledged at a wall street journal event that he was in talks with a target company and that a deal might happen within weeks he quickly warned against buying short dated options what we don't want people doing is speculating buying short dated options on our spec he said instead of calming investors down they loaded up on weekly options after all such options are incredibly cheap and if a deal is announced the stock runs up the return could be huge perhaps a hundred thousand dollar win after spending five thousand on several weeks worth of weeklies one investor explains so what happens when a bunch of investors lose money on a stock they sue of course and that's what's going on uh persian shares spax sued days after report revealing some retail investors lost millions the lawsuit seeks to prove that pershing square spac was an investment company and not a spac according to bloomberg tuesday morning so basically investors are going to lose even more money hiring lawyers who are going to get back a few pennies for them to make this whole thing go away so the only person who doesn't lose money in any of this of course is bill ackman and pershing square capital as always so guys the big lesson here is never follow any celebrity hedge fund manager as some kind of guru or god that is out to help you because he's not but the biggest lesson is never bet the farm i mean this back only fell from like 33 dollars to like 20 so these guys lost millions of dollars just from really small moves now had the guy with 1.6 million dollars only put five percent of his money say eighty thousand dollars into this spac even if he bought at the very top at thirty three dollars and it went down to twenty he would have lost about forty percent on that investment which is like thirty two thousand dollars he would have still had one point five seven million dollars left now of course you don't get the thrill or the chance or the opportunity to make millions of dollars by doing that but you also don't have the risk of blowing up your whole entire fortune and so putting all your money in short dated out of the money calls in the hopes that some news is going to come out to make the stock jump a hundred percent or something like that is just pure gambling and these guys they are going to learn a real tough lesson here hopefully and that they're not going to do something like this again and hopefully they're young enough to build their fortune back up and so learn from other people's mistakes don't repeat them yourself i hope you like this video and i see in the next one thanks for watching guys
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