저자: Nick · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드의 질로우(Z) 매매는 리스크 관리 실패의 신호이며, 그녀의 '투자 구루' 이미지가 흔들리고 있다. 사건 경위: 질로우 주가가 실적 악화로 하락하자 캐시 우드(ARK)는 화요일 약 2,500만 달러(28.8만 주)를 추가 매수했다. 다음 날 주가가 20% 더 하락하자 보유 중이던 390만 주 전량을 매도했다. 손실 규모: 질로우는 3분기 홈플리핑 사업(Zillow Offers)에서 약 3억 8천만 달러 손실을 냈고, 사업 중단을 발표했다. 고점 203달러 대비 주가는 약 65달러까지 하락해, 약 390만 주 보유분 기준 상당한 손실이 발생했을 것으로 추정된다. 매매 흐름: 2021년 3월 45만 주를 약 6,800만 달러(주당 약 151달러)에 매수한 기록이 있다. 매도 시점까지 보유를 유지했는지, 중간에 사고팔았는지는 불분명하다. 진행자 해석: 손실 금액보다 중요한 문제는 일관성 없는 매매 행태다. 추가 매수 후 하루 만에 전량 매도한 것은 계획 부재로 보이며, 펀드 투자자들이 운용 역량을 재고할 수 있다. 경고 신호: 질로우 악재는 갑작스러운 것이 아니었다. 고점 대비 50% 하락 이후에야 실적이 공개됐고, 한 달 전 홈플리핑 사업 일시 중단, 7,000채 대량 매각설 등 신호가 이미 있었다. 짐 크레이머 비교: 8월 질로우 200달러 시기에 '주택 시장의 아마존'이라며 강세 의견을 냈다. 진행자는 어떤 전문가도 영원히 맞지 않으며 '이번엔 다르다'는 말과 실적 무시 논리를 경계해야 한다고 강조한다. 결론적 조언: 맹목적 추종을 피하고, 운용사의 원칙과 일관성을 기준으로 판단하라. 캐시 우드 펀드 투자자라면 재검토가 필요하다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 캐시 우드의 '구루' 지위가 이번 사건으로 끝을 향하고 있다고 본다. 다만 이는 평판에 대한 평가이며, 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey guys it's nick and in this video i want to talk about what's going on with kathy wood and zillow stock for all you busy ceos out there i will give you the executive summary so you can skip the rest of the video on tuesday with zillow stock down on bad news kathy woods added to her position to kind of average down on the stock so she bought 25 million dollars worth or about 288 000 shares zillow reported huge losses on their home flipping program zillow offers because of this the stock dropped about 20 on wednesday and kathy woods dumped not just the stock they bought the day before but all 3.9 million shares of zillow stock that the arc funds owns now zillow lost about 380 million dollars in its home flipping program in the third quarter and it is quite possible that kathy wood lost more than that from zillow's peak to where she sold it on wednesday so should we start a gofundme for kathy wood and the ceo of zillow no they'll be just fine because they used other people's money to do this your money and that's why i tell people don't follow whoever the so-called guru of the day is and since people have a real short memory let's go take a look back to see where kathy wood was buying a lot of this zillow stock at its peak and let's see where other so-called gurus like kramer were telling people to buy zillow stock so zero hedge said kathy wood bought 25 million of zillow on tuesday before the stock cratered another 20 today so kathy wood bought 288 000 shares or about 25 million after the stock dropped 10 on tuesday i guess she thought it was kind of a bargain or a discount to get it at 10 off or she was trying to average down to her already huge position in zillow but a day later she dumps 3.9 million zillow shares and those shares were worth about 255 million at the time that they sold them so here's zillow's chart it peaked around 203 in february and went as low as about 65 that's about a 65 drop and so just a drop from its october 29th price of around 106 down to about 65 is about 120 million dollar drop on the 3.6 million shares that they owned before they scooped up the other 288 000 shares now i don't know how long kathy wood held zillow as it declined from 203 down to about 65 but in this march 4th 2021 article they say etf star kathy wood made a huge purchase of 450 000 shares of zillow which at the time was about 68 million dollars which equates to about 151 dollars a share so she bought it somewhere around this level here now did she hold it all the way down to this decline here when they sold everything maybe maybe not they might have traded in and out a little bit there's some peaks and valleys along the way now seems to me a bigger problem for kathy wood is not how much she lost on this zillow trade the bigger problem is that the shine is starting to fade off her so-called guru status and so not only are her funds not doing well this year but these articles highlighting this erratic trading and holding these losing positions and then dumping all the way down at the bottom i'm sure it's making some investors in her funds rethink her so-called stock picking genius it almost makes them look erratic or impulsive in their decision-making process also this bad news about zillow wasn't new if you look at the stock price from the peak of 200 down to before the really bad earnings started coming out the stock already dropped 50 so people knew kind of what was up and the stock reflected that so it seems the people at arc just turned a blind eye to the red flags at zillow and this didn't happen overnight the big red flags started over a month ago when zillow said that they're going to pause their zillow offers program until the end of the year because of a so-called labor shortage and then just a few days before they reported earnings there were news reports saying that there were rumors that zillow was shopping around 7 000 houses that they were trying to unload in big bundles for about 2.8 billion dollars and then just a few days later zillow came out with their earnings and said they lost 380 million dollars in the house flipping part of the business and that they were shutting down zillow offers for good i gotta shut the studio so with all this bad news coming out the stock being down 50 from its peak or more you would think that the people at arc really thought about this and contemplated and did their homework and had a plan that they believed in and that's why they continued to buy another like 10 of their position when the stock dropped 10 on tuesday now if that was the end of it and they said yeah we added 25 million because we still like the stock we believe in it blah blah blah that would have been one thing but to turn around the next day when the stock drops 20 and puke out your whole position that seems to tell investors that they don't have a plan and they're just kind of trading by the seat of their pants or whatever headline of the day is and that's not the type of feeling that investors want to have about their investment manager so i think this zillow fiasco marks the beginning of the end of the cathy wood investment god status she's not the first and she won't be the last and if you don't believe me let's look at a past so-called investment god jim cramer everybody used to follow his picks on his show 10 15 years ago i don't know if they still follow him now but let's see what he said about zillow back in august when it was 200 bucks if you saw the skit get into the homework you would have discovered that zillow is benefiting from what they call the great reshuffling they've come up with new tools where you can literally sell your house on zillow with a click then fix it up and resell to someone customers want simplicity in one click it goes on to cite the amazon prime model is his inspiration saying quote what people want to do is get into their new house everything else is an obstacle to me it sounds like the perfect time to own the amazon of housing and that's zero so you see nobody is infallible and nobody has a hot streak forever so don't follow them blindly especially when they say earnings don't matter or it's different this time that may be the case for a little while but in the long run fundamentals do matter so guys after seeing how kathy wood handled this zillow investment would you invest in any of her arc funds and if you are a current arc fund investor are you having second thoughts about their stock picking ability because of their wishy-washiness on zillow stock let me know in the comments below i'm curious on what people's takeaway is on this whole situation if you like this video hit the thumbs up and i'll see in the next one thanks for watching guys
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