저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 델타 변이 우려로 양극단 시나리오에 갇혀 있으나, 실제로는 종목별로 갈리므로 조정 시 분할 매수 기회를 노리라는 주장. [시장 전반] 시장이 '대폭락 vs 급등' 양극단으로 움직이는 분위기이며, 실제 결과는 그 중간일 가능성이 크다고 봄. 다우 383포인트 하락, 나스닥 0.89% 하락. 10% 조정이 나올 수 있으나 10개월간 5% 조정도 없었다고 언급. [리오프닝 관련주] 델타 변이가 억제되면 항공, 여행, 호텔, 식당, 소매주가 반등할 수 있다고 봄. 반대로 확산되면 이들 종목이 큰 타격을 받을 수 있음. [로우스(LOW) vs 홈디포(HD)] 홈디포 하락 영향으로 로우스도 193달러에서 182달러로 하락했으나, 실적 호조로 17달러 상승. 로우스는 전문 계약자 시장 공략과 여성 소비자 회복 노력 중이라 홈디포와 차별화된다고 평가. [소매 지표 비판] 미국 7월 소매판매 부진은 종목별 실적과 괴리가 크다며 거시 지표 의존을 비판. 로우스와 TJX의 실적은 긍정적. [자동차] 반도체 부족이 완화되면서 가을 자동차 구매 시즌이 좋을 수 있다고 봄. 포드는 16달러에서 13달러로 하락했지만 반도체 공급 개선을 고려하면 여전히 매도는 아니라고 언급. [주택 시장] 주택 판매 둔화는 가격 급등에 따른 충격(sticker shock)이 원인. Fed의 개입 필요성 주장에 반대하며, 밀레니얼 7,500만 명, 낮은 공급, 10년간 누적 수요 등을 근거로 주택 강세 시나리오 유지. 일부 건설사는 재고 보충 시점으로 봄. [재택/출근 불확실성] 하이브리드 근무 방식이 불확실해 주택·자동차 구매를 미루는 사람이 많을 수 있다고 봄. [월트디즈니(DIS)] 5달러 하락 상태. 봉쇄 시 디즈니 플러스, 외출 허용 시 테마파크, 완전 재개방 시 영화관·크루즈 등 시나리오별 수혜 가능성 언급. 매수 관심 종목으로 제시. [결론] 거시 지표 하락 시 이탈하지 말고 쇼핑 리스트에 있는 우량 종목을 약세에서 매수하라고 조언. 이번 조정은 단기 수익은 제한적이지만 델타 변이가 세계 종말이 아님이 확인되면 장기 수익의 좋은 진입점이 될 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
aig america i've been one of my this this my friends is an entirely manic depressive market there's a widespread belief that everything's great bye-bye or everything's terrible zero middle gram which means we're either poised for an amazing run higher or we'll get hit with that fabled 10 correction if not more remember we haven't had a five percent correction in ten months after another ugly day though with the dow losing 383 points has to be shedding 1.07 nasdaq declined 0.89 this logic is incredibly seductive isn't it because it justifies the extreme negative view if the delta variant can't be stopped then we're living in serious times uh times that will freeze economic activity and put an end to the amazing boom in service and leisure and travel those are all the key pillars of the great reopening knock them down that spells the end of everything from boeing's nascent rally to the airline's attempts to get back into the black to the hotel's restaurants and small retailers that had been roaring as part of the great reopening trade but this and this is one important but if the delta variant can be tamed something with dr scott gottlieb the former head of the fda now a cnbc contributor who must all ever oh you ever meet people who believe in this guy things could happen as soon as this weekend then all the stocks you'd be selling under the doomsday scenario they would have to be bought right back if delta peaks you'll be thanking your lucky stars as you didn't listen to myriad bears who keep mauling the reopening stocks there's just one problem with this analysis though see nothing nothing in this world especially stocks is ever black and white wall streeters act like this is an either or moment either a disaster scenario or a heaven-sent bull run but what if the reality is is somewhere in between for example tonight we'll be talking to marvin ellison the ceo of lowe's who stocked tumbled from 193 to 182 yesterday why it's in sympathy with a decline in home depot then this morning the company reported an excellent quarter and the stock jumped 17 bucks why because lowe's is not home depot they're in better shape the chain is in a major transformation uh localizing in stores making them more friendly to professional contractors that's a a market that had been previously dominated by home despot lowe's is also trying to win back female consumers who had been their core demographic to a few years ago before marvin was there when the company really did lose its way so is home depot living the disaster scenario while lowe's exists in an alternate universe where everything's fine of course not the doomsday or delight wrap makes for a great story but in the end it is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing my advice to you resist this bogus all or nothing analysis it just doesn't work wall street always seems to embrace these false dichotomies doesn't it they embrace them because most commentators place way too much emphasis on big aggregate numbers that are spoon-fed to them from the government because they're so easy it's like my mouth you know uh see what they do is they try to bolster the case by looking for convincing anecdotes other than that they don't particularly care about what individual companies have to say you know why i'll tell you why because you weren't up with me at 3 30 in the morning doing it you know what it's too time consuming for them it's too tiresome it's too granular and it does not go with g t's yesterday for example we learned that u.s retail sales were very light in july and we didn't know what to make of it then home depot comes along with a perfect swing and a miss anecdote talking about how do-it-yourself shoppers slowed down their spending because they wanted to spend their money on something other than renovations after the great reopening got rolly well that made wall street suspicious of every retailer even a good ones like walmart and the whole group got pummeled uh today though lowes and tjx both told terrific stories they really make you question the usefulness of that aggregate retail sales number that comes out of the government it might help an economist cook up a theoretical forecast so that maybe they can teach a really good class that you and i can cut but in real life it makes you no money we saw the same things in the autos we heard about general weakness in the industry associated with that ugly retail sales number but what if i told you there are more semiconductors around these days which allows the automakers to produce new cars meaning the fall buying season could be fantastic you still want to sell the auto stocks 10 here as i told my favorite scott wapner during my regular halftime gig ford motor ford motors just tumbled from 16 to 13 even as the chip shortage is easing up remember this is a guy who wants to bury elon musk you think he's happy about a stock going from 16 to 13.
do you think this is funny no anyway we got a similar story today this time the horrendous aggregate news came in the form of slowing home sales numbers largely due to sticker shock home prices have gone up radically in part due to commodity inflation but mostly because we've got a housing shortage now we're being told that the fed needs to take action to cool down the housing market because prices are so high and mortgage rates are so low me i read it the exact opposite way i think the boom is far from over coveted originally drove an insane housing frenzy as people fled the cities for more spacious homes in the suburbs or the country totally unsustainable now though i think that frenzy may be setting that settling down you know what that's good news for the industry and the stocks now this slowed out have been widely anticipated the home builders wanted to take this moment to replenish their supply one supposedly bad month does not demolish the totally bullish scenario of low mortgage rates strong demographics you know you've got 75 million millennials who are increasingly starting families not to mention low supply and 10 years of pent-up demand all that said there are plenty of people worried about the biggest intangible out there one that's weighing on the entire market where the heck are we going to be going to work in the fall let's say if you live near the center city of philadelphia you live in manhattan and your business moves out to the suburbs uh is something that may require substantial interaction on a subway or bus you could be buying a car or you move out to the suburbs because you don't want to be able to you can telecommute for three days a week well again you don't know what to do do you go back do you stay is hybrid still on but if you don't know what's going to happen which is the case for millions of americans right now trying to figure out the new hybrid work style it may freeze you into not buying anything let's face it if you are going back to the office if you're buying a place further away you won't be throwing a lot of money at your new house so what can you do about this moment to make sure that you don't get blown out by a tougher market how do you thread the needle if it's true that cova cases really could people on saturday something would be fantastic for the stock market and of course the country if you think we are still on the verge of starting to beat the delta variant which many people i talk to today think is true then it's real easy you buy some walt disney which is now five bucks below where it was when it reported strong earnings last thursday if there's a lockdown they've got disney plus if people are still willing to socialize outside they've got the theme parks if it's a full reopening situation they've got movie theaters they even have cruise ships the good news here every single time the market takes its cue from an ugly aggregate number and the exception with the exception of the hugely important non-farm payroll number which actually is meaningful you should have an outlier stock that could be worth buying into weakness it's called your shopping list the bad news you still get days like today where it simply doesn't matter nearly everything drifts down this is day two of a larger sell-off all i ask is that as the market gets more hideous you get more interested in buying something the bottom line like every other sell-off that's tried to decapitate the bull and bring you its head on a silver platter this pullback won't let you make a ton of money immediately but i think you'll get some great entry points that could set you up for tremendous long-term gains when people realize the delta is not the end of the world and will en
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