저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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2023년은 2022년보다 훨씬 나은 해가 될 것이라는 낙관적 전망이 핵심 결론이다. 대통령 임기 3년차는 미국 증시에서 압도적으로 긍정적이었다는 점을 근거로 든다. 1939년 이후 3년차가 마이너스였던 적이 없고(1939년도 -0.9%), 2차년도가 마이너스였던 경우 3년차 수익률은 평균 30% 이상으로 더 강했다고 주장한다. 3년차 평균 수익률은 약 20%다. 미드터엄 기간(2022년 10월 이후 9개월)은 역사적으로 가장 꾸준히 수익을 낸 9개월 구간이며 긍정률 92%라고 설명한다. 정치적 교착으로 세금·재산권·규제 변화가 적어 기업의 장기 투자 환경이 안정된다는 논리다. 경기침체 우려에 대해서는 주식시장이 2022년 1월에 고점을 찍고 9월 말에 바닥을 쳤으므로, 침체가 2023년 후반에 온다면 선행지표로서 리드타임이 지나치게 길다고 반박한다. 기업 매출·GDP가 견조하고 대출이 2022년 5월 이후 가속 중이라는 점도 근거로 든다. 다만 대출 연율이 2~4% 수준으로 급락하면 자신의 전망이 틀린 것이라고 조건을 단다. 인플레이션은 원자재·곡물·원유·금속·목재 등 투입 가격이 2022년 중반부터 하락했으므로, 최종 소비자 물가도 시차를 두고 안정될 것이라고 본다. 인플레이션 전쟁은 이미 상당 부분 이겼다는 입장이다. 채권도 주식만큼은 아니지만 긍정적으로 반응할 것으로 보며, 2022년 약세장으로 인한 비관론이 긍정적 서프라이즈로 이어질 것이라고 결론짓는다. 개별 종목·환율·금리 수치에 대한 구체적 가격 목표는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
people always want to know as we get to the end of the year uh what will happen in the next year and and it's reasonable that they might want that and yet there's only so many things you can and cannot say because a lot happens in any year that is beyond the ability to pontificate about in advance with anything other than lunacy the key questions are is it going to go down in history as a relatively good time or a relatively bad time and for what kind of things I'm just going to say to you that I believe in my bones that everything about 2022 makes 2023 look like a pretty good year coming let's think about that song one of the points that I have made often I have used this for decades it's worked regularly and I believe it will work now in particular is that third years of U.S presidents terms which is what 2023 is tend to be overwhelmingly positive we haven't had a negative third year of U.S president's term the United States of America since 1939 which was only down nine tenths of one percent in the accurate measured history of the stock market only down twice the fact is 1939 as you recall is as we were going into World War II it's a pretty big bad negative thing as I have said in Prior videos talking about what I call the midterm miracle which is that nine months that begin October 1st of the midterm election year 2022 which has worked perfectly in the fourth quarter of 2022.
those nine months collectively are the most consistently profitable nine-month Span in U.S stock market history positive 92 percent of history with an overall twenty percent positivity but that is because of the gridlock or the relative gridlock created in the midterms which rolls right on over into those first two quarters calendar quarters of the next year the third year for president's term and traditionally although not always it is the first half of that year tied to that realization that the government isn't going to change a lot of taxes isn't going to change a lot of property rights isn't going to be able to create a whole lot of new regulation when people have been all through the first and second years of the president's term fighting over all that stuff which was abundantly clear in 2021 and 2022.
that relative calm ushers in peace longer term investing Horizon for businesses and capital expenditure and people in their investment activities and it void stocks up it's a form of surprise that no one ever expects it always works but let me make this further point it's a point that no one ever notices not only is the third year of a president's term Force powerful in American Stock Market history not only is it always disbelieved which is part of why it works because no one ever expects it and is positive surprise even though they can look at history they just don't think it'll happen this time every time but it is also true that when the second year of the president's term has been negative the third year has been doubly powerful big returns am I going to predict those big returns definitely happen in 2023 no but that augers further toward this being a good year let me speak to that a little bit differently when you look at the first year of president's terms they're positive about half the time and negative about half the time in history and when they've been positive they've been pretty big most of the time the second year similarly so not quite as much about half the time often pretty big when they're positive half the time not but when that second year is negative the third year is like a springboard and the returns have been even higher the average third year of president's term has returns that have averaged about 20 percent the third year returns when the second year has been negative are over 30 percent on average these are big numbers and I don't want you to underestimate the power of that secondarily there is this endless fear of recession I want to cast this as a or b either have one or you don't we're either in one or we're not that's pretty obvious the question is which and which now think about that for a second the stock market is a leading indicator it peaked in January of last year bottomed at the end of September and has been rising through the fourth quarter if we're in recession now it's got to be a mile one since sales corporate Revenue and GDP are moving along just fine thank you lending remains robustly strong been accelerating ever since May in the United States and around the world but also if we're not in recession that as a leading indicator of a market peaking in January and falling all through 2022 into the end of September is a very long lead time for what many Envision is a recession that starts later on in 2023 that's too long of a lead time the lead time is typically more like six eight nine months in which case we should already be in recession I don't believe I may be wrong that you can have recession coincident with robust uh lending on a domestic and Global basis so I'm going to say to you if I'm wrong about the fact that we're not going to see a recession but moderate growth if I'm wrong about that what we'll need to see in parallel with my wrongness there for 2023.
is that the lending falls back heavily and goes down to some low level like two three four percent or less on an annualized basis right now we're running it 10 11 12 percent at an annualized basis this can be measured in the United States of America a little less frequently overseas but it can be measured weekly and we do and I don't see any sign of that which would be consistent with moving toward recession when businesses and people borrow short to intermediate term funds they tend to spend them pretty quickly they tend not to sit on them and that robust lending does not speak to a weak economy immediately ahead it speaks to sentiment being dour now and sentiment being dower now is because the stock market was weak in 2022 and dower sentiment is a bullish feature looking forward uh I I want to point out uh finally that as I have written abundantly while inflation is annoying at every level inflation as we measure it and think about it is what I would call output pricing It's the final price that you're paying to buy something in a store or wherever you buy it good or service It's the final price it isn't the price of the things that went in to make it because it took a while to make it those prices are input prices input prices have been falling irregularly through the course of 2022 starting in about May and consistently since the latter part of the summer that hasn't worked its way through the competitive Commerce process that creates final output but are the inputs that that final output later will be based on and the inflation more no thanks to the Federal Reserve or other central banks has largely already been won grain prices are down crude oil prices are down most metals are down the fact of the in lumber prices are down the prices of most of the inputs of things that we later buy as finished goods those inputs have been falling it only takes time for that to translate into a positive inflation effect when I say positive inflation winning the inflation war is not going back to the price of the final input prices that used to exist it's returning to the kind of low levels of inflation that we lived with for a very long time that nobody complained about that is not terribly far ahead in 2023 and is a terribly positive surprise for most everyone 2023 should be a much better year than people expect should be a positive year in capital markets bonds should react well not maybe as well as stocks over all things should get better people should be surprised and the pessimism of disbelief that I talk about regularly caused by the bear Market in 2022 causing people to overly fixate on negatives will slowly lag that process as people nag onto the notion that it's not reflecting the reality that they've been built up to believe is there the surprises should end up on the positive side and you should look forward to that ] thank you
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