저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
GDP 성장률이 주식시장 상승의 필요조건이라는 통념은 틀렸다. [근거 1] 장기 상관계수 분석: 미국 S&P500 97년 데이터와 분기별 GDP 발표를 비교하면 상관관계가 약하다. [근거 2] 약세장 바닥 사례: 주식시장은 경기 선행지표라서 약세장 바닥에서 GDP는 아직 나빠도 강세장이 시작된다. [근거 3] 중국 사례: 중국은 지난 10년간 세계에서 가장 빠르게 성장한 경제권 중 하나지만, 10년 전 대비 주가는 보합이고 5년간은 마이너스다. [공급 요인 강조] 장기적으로 주가 결정에서 공급 변화가 수요 변화보다 훨씬 강력하다. 중국은 자유 제약 강화 등 심리 요인도 주가 부진에 작용했다. [결론] 주식시장은 여러 변수가 동시에 작용하며 GDP는 그중 하나일 뿐이다. GDP 둔화 전망만으로 향후 6개월 주가 방향을 판단할 수 없다. [향후 전망] 앞으로도 GDP에 대한 논의가 이어지겠지만, GDP는 중요도가 낮은 한 요소로 봐야 한다.
다듬은 글
so if you really need GDP to make stock market up you would think boy oh boy the Chinese stock market has to have been a really great place to be and I wish 10 years ago I bought stocks well if you actually bought stocks 10 years ago the Chinese market is flat to 10 years ago it is easy to see why so many people are fixated on GDP and why so many people falsely believe that you need good GDP to have the stock market do well now whenever I hear anybody say something like that you need X to get y in the stock market I then asked myself well how many data points we got so in the time period where we've got really good accurate data for the S P 500 you got 97 years and last I checked every year has four quarters and every quarter gets a GDP report and therefore you can check to see with lags or not how the stock market's done against GDP reports and you know what the correlation coefficient of that is what now I've always been a big fan of chicken correlation coefficients because there's no there there that tells you that X doesn't cause y but you can see some more dramatic examples now mind you you can find you can always find examples that confirm your core belief you can always find quarters where GDP was strong and the stock market did well that doesn't mean that you need strong GDP to make the stock market do well let me just give you two sets of examples that show uh that the reverse is true the stock market's the leading indicator so regularly at every bear Market bottom you have the following which is the beginning of a bull market and yet in those bull markets Whenever there has been a recession which is most of them the economy keeps getting worse and for a long time after the bottom while the stock market's going through the roof you follow that at the beginning the stock market goes down with GDP after that stock market goes up while GDP is falling let me give you a different in some ways more dramatic example because some people will say and I understand the logic here that well maybe not in the short term like the example you just used around bear Market bottoms can maybe instead in the long term we need GDP to do well in the long term or the stock market won't do well and again in my heart I Can Feel the beat for that but let me make a point GDP measures the size of the economy it's not perfect but that's what it's all about I mean there are no constructed indexes of things like that that measure precisely that's a different topic but generally GDP is a measure of the size of the economy and so economies that grow more have GDP going up more and economies that shrink have GDP falling and and GDP as a calculation is not bad so what economy do we all know about that's grown one heck of a lot in recent decades grown a lot more than the United States has uh might be uh maybe maybe China can you think of a big economy that's grown more than China over the last decade so if you really need GDP to make stock market up you would think boy oh boy the Chinese stock market has to have been a really great place to be and I wish 10 years ago I bought stocks well if you actually bought stocks 10 years ago the Chinese market is flat to 10 years ago flat uh to five years ago it's negative now mind you the U.S market and the World Market are both hugely positive over those times I want to reiterate last five years Chinese stock market's negative last 10 years Chinese stock markets flat there must be something else going on besides GDP you follow that and I'm not suggesting that GDP growing is a bad thing it's a good thing it's a good thing for people and it may or may not contribute to a given stock market movement but when I was young and took econ in school heaven forbid you know they taught you to think a little like a scientist does because it's a social science that you're supposed to see how things work if you vary one variable and hold everything else constant otherwise known as other things equal or in Latin as I learned it at the time keteros paribus the fact is in the real world that never happens in the real world everything's Dynamic and if one thing moves just the movement of that one thing impacts something else so what goes on well as I wrote about in my only three questions book at Great length and as I also wrote about in debunkery where this is coming from in this discussion where I use China as an example but that was some years back and we didn't have these last 10 years the fact is that Supply in the long term is singularly most important powerful thing in determining pricing Supply pricing comes from shifts and demand and supply and shifts in Supply in the long term are more powerful than shifts in demand because shifts in demand as I explained in the only few questions comes in a more finite bandwidth than than chisen's plot shifts and Supply can always overwhelm demand which had been the case in China on the one hand and on the other hand despite the growth in recent years China has increasingly become restrictive in its Liberties and its freedom which is her sentiment and so the market hasn't done so well there's always multiple variables going on all at one time and GDP alone is just one of them growth in the economy is just one of them and in that what I want you to see is that the notion now that GDP growth may not be so strong is in and of itself telling you nothing about where the stock market is going to go in the next six months the fact of the matter is there's all these other variables they all play together and it is only one piece and it's far from the most important I believe in the months ahead you will continue to hear discussions about GDP and I want you to remember that that's one and not so terribly important overall thank you foreign
Comments 0