저자: Jeremy · 외국인
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워런 버핏은 나이가 들며 투자 성과가 나빠졌다는 주장이다. 핵심 주장: 버핏의 과거 고수익과 달리 최근 수익률이 저조하다. 근거 1: 대형주 위주 투자로 투자 가능 기업 수가 크게 줄었다(과거 수천 개 → 현재 50~100개). 근거 2: 기술 산업을 이해하지 못해 IBM 등 기술주 투자 성과가 부진했고, 기술 기업이 시장을 주도한 흐름을 놓쳤다. 근거 3: 아마존이 월마트 등 유통 기업 실적을 압박해 버핏의 리테일 투자 수익을 훼손했다. 근거 4: 코카콜라는 건강 이슈와 음료 시장 다변화로 점유율이 줄었다. 근거 4 보충: 신규 음료 브랜드와 에너지드링크 등 대체재가 늘어났다. 근거 5: 고령으로 트렌드 감각이 떨어져 신생 기업(스냅챗, 언더아머, 룰루레몬 등)을 놓쳤다. 종목 언급: 월마트(보유, 비관적 언급), 아마존(고PER로 미투자), 코카콜라(부진), IBM(부진), 버핏이 보유한 기술주 일부 실적 부진 언급. 리스크/조건: 버핏의 장기 명성은 여전하며, 성과가 나빴더라도 투자 전설로서의 지위는 유효하다는 평가. 출연자 전망: 버핏의 최근 수익률 부진이 구조적 요인에서 비롯되었다고 보며, 향후 성과에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
good day subscribers thank you so much for joining me today I am Jeremy this is the financial education Channel and today we're talking about Warren Buffett Warren Buffett the Oracle Omaha the most famous the most successful investor ever probably in the history of the world this guy is amazing and he's one that a lot of long-term investors or investment community in general looks up to as like a legend like a god of investing right but as he gotten older it seemed like he's gotten much worse as an investor those incredible returns he got for two decades straight those started to be wrote and and nowadays he's just not nearly as respected of an investor as far as what he's doing nowadays versus what he was doing in the 80s what he was doing in the 90s what he was doing in the 70s was absolutely amazing the returns he was getting so I want to run through with you guys five reasons why this seems that way and five reasons why B basically it's a lot harder for him nowadays than it was in the past even though he's probably much more intelligent he's probably much more well-connected he could get anybody to talk to him whenever he wants any CEO in the country basically he's got one phone call away so you say you know he's a lot smarter he's more well-connected he has so much more information available to him how did he get worse well let's start off guys so number one nowadays he can only invest generally in huge corporations we're talking about you know companies that have Market of $50 billion plus reason being is because birg share has so much money coming in to invest that in order to get any type of substantial return on that money he really needs to you know make billion dollar stakes in a company and in order to make billion dollar stakes in a company it's got to be a company that's worth tens of billions of dollars if not hundreds of billions of dollars now the amount of companies out there that are 10 billion doll plus market cap or really $50 billion plus market cap which is what he's mainly looking for the amount of companies that fit that category are very very small guys there AR a a massive amount of companies so he went from when he was starting out investing in those first you know 20 30 years that he could invest in almost any company he wanted almost any company he wanted he had thousands of companies he could search through and then pick the very best ones to put his money toward right nowadays he's got 100 companies maybe 50 companies maybe that he can actually legitimately invest in and make a big Aken and then that number goes down even more because some of those those companies don't fit the criteria he's looking for so the amount of companies he has to pick from to actually invest in it's very small guys it's very very small so that's hurt him substantially and that would hurt any investor substantially when you limit the amount of companies that you have availability of investing in that limits the amount of money you can make in the long run by a lot a lot guys number two he doesn't understand technology he's admitted this on a million interviews you could watch out there on YouTube or or anywhere he's admitted this time and time again he doesn't understand Tech which is why he pretty much never invests in Tech he started to a little bit more recently and he's done really bad on most of his Tech Investments you know like IBM and whatnot so but he does not understand Tech and this hurts him greatly over the last 20 30 years because guess what guys in the last 20 30 years the tech companies most of those are been what has carried the market to huge gains the tech companies are the ones that have been blowing up that has been the biggest industry by far to push America forward and by far to push the stock market forward you look at you know 20 30 years ago you look at the biggest companies in America the 100 biggest companies there was almost no tech companies in there almost no technology companies were in there nowadays look at it in the list of of the big the 100 biggest you know market caps out there that are Tech related it's like half the list is Tech related companies guys you know you think about some of the biggest companies in the world as far as market cap goes you know Facebook 300 billion plus Google I don't know 500 billion plus Apple 500 billion plus Microsoft 400 500 billion plus some of the biggest companies in the world are all Tech related and this is a this is a sector he's completely missed out on because he does not understand it and that's fine you know sometimes you don't understand sectors there C certain sectors I don't understand that well that I don't get involved with a lot of the banking sector a lot of the oil and gas stock you know cuz I don't know where Commodities are going coal all those type of companies I don't really mess with because it's not it's not in my realm of of you know understanding and for him that's Tech but by it being Tech sector that just hurts substantially guys because there's so many great tech companies that are on the upand coming and had been on the up and coming for 10 20 years that he just missed out on huge huge gains he could have had guys number three thing he has working against him is Amazon has hurt a lot of his big retail names you know Walmart is one of his biggest re um Investments it has been for a long time and there's tons of other retailers he's been invested in sold stakes in or bought stakes in that have been hurt by Amazon he once again Amazon's more of a tech related company although they're retail and he doesn't understand Amazon that well it has a high PE so we wouldn't touch it but Amazon has hurt substantially so many of his retail names including Walmart so that's held back a lot of his gains he could have had if if Amazon never existed Amazon never came along all of his retail names would pretty much have a lot higher stock prices than they do now they' probably be a lot more profitable have a lot more Revenue but since Amazon came in the game and has just really come in and be dominant it's hurt so many of his retail names which is another reason why his returns have suffered over the last 10 years next up guys number four Coca-Cola is a second biggest investment well Coca-Cola has been hurt over the last decade by a lot of negativity as far as you know um not being very healthy for you you know Coca-Cola and whatnot we've known this for a long time but it really hasn't begun to hurt Coke until really the past decade and it's just small little slices here and there a lot more innovation has come in the soft drink category or basically non-alcoholic drinks you know you had energy drinks come in which Coke has now taken advantage of because they've become a big investor in Monster but of course that was way late in the game they should have done it you know 10 years ago 5 years ago something like that but a lot of more drink are out there nowadays that people are drinking that they were not drinking 10 20 30 years ago when he was starting to invest in the 80s you know you think about so many big Brands out there that you go to your local convenience store and see on the shelves those all most of those did not exist when when Koke was around in the 80s and whatnot and coming up and when he was investing in that so Koke has been hurt by all these new brands of different types of drinks out there that have come in and just you know taken a little market share away from Coke instead of someone going to grab that coke they go to grab a Naked Juice or go out grab whatever other kind of product there is out there maybe a bottle of water instead maybe an energy drink a Red Bull something like that those those products weren't around back then guys so coke has been hurt by that and that's hurt Warren Buffett next up last up here guys generally speaking as you get older you get more out of touch with what is going on in Trends and things like that guys Warren Buffett's 86 87 years old now guys it's really hard to be in touch with things that are coming up versus when you're younger and you're in your 20s 30s and you're more in touch with you know what's the next Trend coming out what's the next style coming out all those kinds of things what's the next hut company coming out it's hard to know that when you're in your 80s I'll be completely honest you go to any retirement community pretty much in America go there go door toor and just ask them say hey do you know what Snapchat is I can almost guarantee you every single household will have no clue what Snapchat is and you know that's what the company that's pushing an IPO probably within next year is probably going to have a 30 40 50 billion doll valuation guys and they're going to be clueless on that you know you could have gone to retirement community 10 years ago and asked them what Facebook is Facebook what what is that what you know what I mean and same thing if you go to you know a classroom with fifth graders in and you say hey what's a landline phone they're all look at you like you're crazy a landline phone I don't know is that some new smartphone company or something you know what mean it's just there you know it's harder to be in touch with things as you get older I'm 27 and some of the things you know and musicians and whatnot I'm not as in touch as I once was back in high school when I knew all the new Hest musicians coming up sometimes I don't know who these people are until they're already big names same thing that happens in the investment Community when you get older generally speaking sometimes you don't even know these companies you know there's companies like Under Armour that Warren Buffett probably totally missed out on Lululemon some of these brands that he actually probably understood really well but he didn't understand it from a standpoint of you know is this going to be the next big company or whatnot because he's probably just more out of touch guys it's really hard to be in touch with things as you get older you know that's why parents aren't as cool as kids right so anyways I hope you guys enjoyed this today Warren Buffett he's still a legend he's he'll you know even if he did horrible for the rest of his career you know and who knows how many more years he's going to even do it even if he did horrible he's still an investing God you know if there's a mountain Rushmore of investors waren Buffett's on that pedestal but his returns have suffered over the last couple decades and I wanted to share with you guys why this is if you enjoyed this video today hit that Thumbs Up Button if you've come across this video and you have not subscribed yet you may want to I talk about Personal Finance on the channel talk about entrepreneurship I'm an entrepreneur and we also talk the stock market the most I break down stocks every week thank you for watching guys and have a great day he
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