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that didn't seem to be the trigger. Um I think we're going to get another rate cut despite the fact that um Pal kind of said it wasn't a lock. You know, the markets kind of priced it in and he kind of pushed back against that. But at the end of the day, I think there's going to be another cut because I think the economic data is going to continue to disappoint.
Now, we're not getting as much data as normal because of the government shutdown, but it's possible that they end that government shutdown and we get a deluge of bad economic data that could be a catalyst uh for a big another move up, you know, in the price of gold uh as people start to, you know, factor that in.
And the Fed at its last FOMC meeting announced that QT is officially ending in December. So, I think another big catalyst will be the the launch of the next round of quantitative easing, which I believe is coming. I I I thought it would have actually happened already. So, I'm kind of surprised they were able to make it through the entire year without doing it.
Uh but I think 2026 will be the year that they, you know, crank up the presses again, especially if they continue to see uh weakness in the longer end of the bond market. And then of course you do have you know some court decisions you know on the tariffs on the firing of Lisa Cook to say I forget how how when does Pal leave midway through the year May.
I mean I guess it's about 50/50 that you know they that they can hold off on QE. It kind of depends on what happens but I think if you start to see a big move down in the stock market or something that might scare the administration there'll be a lot more pressure and we'll see. I mean today, you know, we're getting, you know, a decent decline in stocks.
I know Bitcoin, you know, broke below 100,000 for the first time in about 4 months. Um, and, you know, that could be a bit of a leading indicator, uh, that, you know, people are starting to take risk off and it may not just be crypto. It may be a broaderbased riskoff trade. Um, which also could see some money flowing back into gold as a safe haven investment.
And I think as the air comes out of the the the Bitcoin bubble and people begin to question the digital gold narrative, which which they should because it's just just a meme, um to the extent that people wake up to the reality that Bitcoin isn't digital gold, well then maybe they'll buy real gold instead.
And so there could be a source of some extra gold buying from people who either get out of Bitcoin or instead of buying Bitcoin decide to buy the real gold, right? instead of some fake version of it. When you look at the US economy, how how bad are you thinking it could get? What's what's your your vision there?
Well, I mean, I think things are pretty pretty pretty bad. I mean, if you look at the most recent uh polls on Trump's approval, his approval on the economy is the lowest it's been of either of his presidencies. He only has a 30% approval rating. Um, so that's not even like all the Republicans. Um and over 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy, right?
Just the economy. That's supposed to be his strong suit, right? And you know, Trump is going around, you know, touting how we have the strongest economy in the history of the country, right? We have the hottest economy in the whole world. And he contrasts that to the Biden economy, which, you know, we had last year.
And he said that was the worst economy in the history of America. So apparently in less than a year we've gone from the worst economy in the history of America to the greatest economy in the history of America. Yet the voters don't approve of his handling of the economy. So somebody's not you know telling the truth, right?
E either the the public loves the economy but they're afraid to be honest with the the polls or you know or Yeah. I mean that's one area where I trust the e the the public. I don't trust their opinion on a lot of things, but I trust them to know how they're doing themselves because when they're asked about the economy, they're not talking about the overall unemployment rate or influal circumstances, right?
And so they're answering that question based on what they're experiencing in their own lives. Are they, you know, are things getting better for them financially? Are things getting worse? So people know uh you know their own circumstances, right? Yeah. Well, I mean I think the people at this conference are among the few people that are protecting themselves.
I mean they are at a gold conference, right? So everybody at this conference I'm sure has some gold, has some silver, they own some mining stocks. So the people here are not the ones that need protection. It's the people who didn't come here, you know, that that have no protection. Now some of them may think they have protection because they bought Bitcoin.
Uh, but Bitcoin, they're going to find out, is probably riskier than all the stuff they were worried about. You know, they're going to end up losing more money in Bitcoin than if they would have just stayed in the S&P 500. Um, but I think most people, especially retirees or near retirees, need to understand the risk of inflation and the devaluation of the dollar and they need to do something about it.
You know, they should be buying gold and silver. You know, I got shift gold, right? They could buy from me. they could buy, you know, someplace else, but people have to own physical gold and silver and they should have an investment portfolio that reflects the reality of what's going to happen to the dollar over time and the value of US assets.
And people need to invest globally. I mean, we've been investing for clients in international dividend paying stocks. If you look at our core dividend payer strategy, year to date, it's up about 50%. Which is a phenomenal return. This is probably the best year we've had uh in the 11 or 12 years that I've run the strategy.
It's about triple the S&P. You know, most years the S&P has outperformed the strategy, but now the strategy is destroying S&P. And I think this is the beginning of a major rotation out of US stocks back into global stocks. So, I don't think what happened with our strategy in 2025 is going to be a one-off year.
I think is the beginning of a trend that's going to last for many many years. And so people should recognize this change and start moving money out of the US stock market and and and investing in the markets that we're investing in in our in our global strategies because the valuations are much better, the dividend yields are much higher and you get the tailwind of a weakening dollar uh which I think is going to strengthen over time and that's going to be one of the main reasons that foreigners are going to start pulling out of our markets because they're going to have a headwind.
you know, they're going to be losing on the foreign exchange and that's going to be subtracting from the returns on US assets. So, they're going to want to divest and it's been foreign buyers at the margin that have really helped power the US market for the past 10 years. And now they're, you know, characterizing it as a pullback.
I mean, we're 3,950 as we're talking. We've only pulled back from a level that we reached for a day, right? we had a a quick move up, but the fact that we're just below 4,000 doesn't really feel like it's a pullback. Um, it's only a pullback in relation to the fact that we almost hit 4,400, which was crazy in that it only took us maybe a week to get there from hitting 4,000.
So, if you throw that week or two out and just look at where we are, we've gone up a lot on the year. And I think sentiment, it's interesting how such a sharp decline can turn the sentiment to get everybody thinking that this is now potentially a bare market already in gold uh and that there's a lot of downside risk.
I think that's kind of what the market was trying to do in shaking out uh some of the newer entrance uh that you know may not really have the conviction or maybe came in with some leverage and have been flushed out of the market. But we've created a lot more um I guess nervousness so that we can climb that wall of worry.
And so as far as I'm concerned, if this is a correction, it's probably already over. I don't think there's that much downside in the price of gold from here. And the same thing with silver. I mean, silver didn't hold above 50, but it did take out 50, which is something it never did really in 1980 or 2011.
We got almost to 55. Uh, and now we've had a pullback, but you know, we're holding 48.50, which if you told people even a few months ago, silver would be a 48.50. They wouldn't be, oh my god, it's pulling back. They'd be very happy that silver was at this price. And especially the gold miners. I mean, gold pulling back to 3,900 is great for all these gold mining companies.
They're making a ton of money at $3,900 gold. They're making a lot of money at $2,900 gold. Uh, and that never really got factored into the price. I just think we're early in a a broader bull market. I think that investors, you know, mainstream Wall Street investors, both institutional and and retail, are just finally finally noticing gold and deciding that they should make it a part of their portfolio.
And this is after, you know, gold is up, you know, 11 12x this century. uh the Dow is down, you know, close to 70% priced in gold since peaking in 1999. So gold has outperformed the markets. Yet investors haven't even noticed that really until just recently. And I don't think that the fact that they've now decided that gold should be included in a portfolio, whereas before it had no place in a portfolio.
I don't think that is going to change because oh my god, now gold's 3,900 and not 4,300. I think you're going to start to see more accumulation of gold uh from investors who never bought any.
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