저자: Ale · 외국인
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AMD 주가 급등 후 일부 익절 및 장기 보유 전략 설명 결론: AMD는 장기적으로 보유하지만 급등 후 일부(약 5%) 익절했고, 향후 주가 상승 여부는 확신하지 않음. 실적 및 주가 흐름 발표 직후 주가가 하루 만에 20% 이상 상승했고, 이전에는 20달러 중후반대까지 올랐다가 중반 수준까지 하락했던 흐름이 언급됨. 이전에 주가가 300% 이상 수익이 난 구간도 있어 일부를 현금화함. 4분기 실적 EPS는 주당 8센트로 애널리스트 추정에 부합했으나, 매출 14.2억 달러로 추정치(14.4~14.5억 달러)에는 미달함. 매출은 전년 대비 6% 증가. 2018년 연간 매출은 23% 증가, 순이익 흑자 전환(EPS 주당 33센트), 매출총이익률 4%p 개선. 가이던스 및 시장 반응 다음 분기 매출 가이던스는 12.5억 달러로 전년 대비 약 24% 감소, 추정치보다 약 15% 낮음. 그러나 연간 가이던스(고single-digit 매출 성장)가 시장 예상(약 6%)보다 높아 주가 상승 요인이 됨. 제품 및 성장 동력 7나노 EPYC, Navi GPU, Ryzen 3세대 등 신제품 라인업을 강조하며 점유율 확대 기대. 차세대 게임 콘솔 교체 수요와 데이터센터 성장을 긍정적으로 봄. 보유 전략 현재 포지션은 유지하며, 주가 급등 시 일부 익절하고 급락 시 매수하는 방식을 설명함. 배당이 없는 AMD보다 배당 성장 이력이 있는 AT&T를 장기 보유 측면에서 선호한다고 언급함. 리스크 암호화폐 시장 침체로 인한 중고 GPU 과잉 공급이 실적에 부담이 됨. 엔비디아 역시 실적 부진과 가이던스 하향으로 주가가 크게 하락한 상태임. 거시경제 충격 시 수익이 사라질 수 있다는 점을 익절 이유로 제시함.
다듬은 글
AMD stock is absolutely killing it today and as you guys know I do have a small position in AMD used to actually be my second largest stock in my overall portfolio but after it climbing's very high to like the mid to high $20 range I did start cashing in a lot of my profits because at that point I had profits of like over 300% in some cases so I started to cash in a lot of my profits but I held onto a smaller reduced position for the long term because I do still believe in AMD for all of their future potential but when looking specifically at today's performance they jumped by over 20% a day after reporting earnings which was on the 29th of January so today we're going to talk about their earnings what I plan to do with my stock and what my future outlook is for their company and much more in today's video let's get started what's up everybody my name is Allah and welcome to my world of stocks so we're looking at why I decided to cash in some profits in AMD you know I can't really give you too much of a reason other than the stock climbed really high really fast I was expecting it to climb but maybe not that fast and I had profits at that point of like over 300% in some cases and I just didn't want to lose those profits if we ever end up getting that you know that market crash that everybody's been screaming about you know every year for the past decade there are some macroeconomic concerns out there and I just didn't want to lose all of my profits so I did decide to cash in some some of my profits with AMD but I still held onto a smaller position because I believe in their future and their upcoming 7 nanometer product line up looks very promising and I do think that it will help them continue to steal a little bit of market share from their competitors like Intel and NVIDIA and help them drive a little bit more of future growth which by the way they record a nine percent year-over-year growth in their computing and graphics segment for the quarter which is actually their eighth straight quarter of revenue growth in that segment not to mention that I'm also bullish on the gaming industry that is growing by billions of dollars a year and AMD plays a huge role in that not just in PC gaming but they also powered the Xbox and Playstation home consoles which will be getting a next-gen refresh probably in the next year or two not to mention that the current gens have already sold over a hundred and twenty million units combined with the ps4 on track to become the number three best-selling home game console of all time however the stock has been struggling lately right along with NVIDIA due to a cryptocurrency crash in prices that made mining less profitable which led to an oversupply of used secondhand GPUs that are hurting AMD and NVIDIA sales speaking of which Nvidia recently took a massive hit just the other day where they actually dropped by over 18 percent at one point in just a single day and it's been a little up and down since but I did decide to open a small position at around a hundred and thirty two dollars per share but that's only around five to ten percent of the total position that I want to have in as I expect their stock to remain volatile given that they're expecting sales to come in almost 25 percent lower year-over-year in their most recent quarter with weakness in data center and their new r-tx GPUs now selling much worse than they hoped as their ray tracing technology isn't being implemented enough into games to warrant the higher price tags in any case this brings us to a m-- DS earnings which they reported yesterday which was January 29th and in my opinion it was a little bit of a mixed bag but certainly better than what Nvidia seems to be going through in terms of growth now they were able to match analyst estimates for fourth quarter EPS of eight cents per share which jumped up from just one cent the year prior but they missed on revenue which came in at one point four two billion versus estimates of one point four four to one point four five billion but it was still up six percent year-over-year which is definitely a positive sign and results for the full year look even better with revenue jumping 23 percent year-over-year highest profitability in seven years with non-gaap net income jumping to over half a billion reduced that by a hundred and seventy-one million cash at over 1.1 billion gap gross margin improving by four percentage points and EPS going from a loss of three cents per share to a profit of thirty three cents per share or 46 cents on a non-gaap basis still they did technically miss estimates but in my opinion expectations were too high to begin with considering that it's going to take a couple quarters for AMD to transition from seeing a surge in sales from cryptocurrency mining that has now evaporated speaking of which when looking at guidance these concerns are leading to AMD guiding for sales to be 1.25 billion next quarter which is actually a decline of about twenty four percent year-over-year and it's also short about 15 percent from what analysts were expecting and again AMD pointed to lower graphic sales because of that excess channel inventory which is mostly a result of the crypto crash but despite that guidance for the following quarter looking really bad on a year-over-year basis the stock actually climbed in after-hours trading by around 8 percent yesterday and that led to a cumulative rally today of over 20% which is pretty freakin incredible so you got to imagine that a lot of shorts got squeezed there and it helped us stock climb even more so why did the stock climb buy so much well part of the reason is that the stock was already being hammered during regular trading hours yesterday and in the previous day thinks that Nvidia's horrible outlook for the quarter so analysts were expecting it to look just as ugly for AMD but even though aim DS earnings were lower than expectations their full-year guidance shocked Wall Street as they guided higher than anyone was expecting and despite the weakness being resulted from the crypto crash see analysts were only predicting revenue growth of around 6% for 2019 but AMD is guiding for sales growth of a high single-digit percentage which is likely to be well above 6% and again this is growth that is coming despite the damage that is being done by the crypto crash and the weaker data center performance being projected by both Intel and NVIDIA speaking of which AMD CEO Lisa sue which I happen to be a really big fan of said that they more than doubled their epic processor shipments sequentially and delivered record GPU data center revenue in the quarter don't forget that they'll be releasing their 7 nanometer version of their epic chips this year and they also announced new or expanding partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft for their AWS and Azure platforms and when looking at their 7 nanometer products they already launched a 7 nanometer Vega GPU and will be releasing their 7 nanometer Navi GPUs later in the year to compete further with NVIDIA and their 7 nanometer rise in 3rd generation will compete further with Intel in the CPU market which by the way sue also mentioned that PC client shipments grew more than 50% year-over-year and the number of rising systems will increase by 30% in 2019 year-over-year with rising laptops increasing by more than 50% year-over-year thanks to the high demand they're seen and projecting in their 7 nanometer products so I think this more diverse and more competitive lineup of products that are both competitive in price as well as performance that are built on TSM c7m technology which by the way I also own TSMC stock will help drive that growth that we need to return to normal inventory levels and especially a normal GPU channel and AMD thinks that this will also help expand their margins with adjusted gross profit margin increasing from 39% in 2018 to 41% in 2019 so this really comes back to what we've been saying all along on the channel which is that AMD is going to experience some short-term difficulties because of the cryptocurrency crash but their new product lineup is looking very robust and with a lot of you know potential growth drivers out there AMD is well positioned to take advantage of them and help them steal some market share and keep that growth alive looking forward into probably the later half of 2019 especially still I'm just holding my position for now I did actually cash in about 5% of my AMD position today because I just wanted to cash in some more profits with them they're trailing p/e is still a little high in the 60s therefore p/e is still in the 30s so they're just a little too expensive for me to keep buying AMD stock but I am holding it for the long term like I said I cash in about 5% of the position today and you know I know a lot of people hate that because you know when stocks are going up they want me to buy and when stocks are going down they want me to sell you know you might remember that AMD was recently trading like in the mid-teens and everybody hated the stock right when it was going down to the mid-teens everybody was saying all this stock is gonna break $10 a share it's gonna go down to like $5 a share everybody was super negative on AMD now that AMD is like back to the low to mid 20s all those same people are gonna be saying oh now it now is the time to buy now is the time to buy you know it's this kind of herd mentality but I don't do things like that you know when a stock goes down when AMD goes down that's when I'm actually buying when AMD goes up you know I'm either holding or I'm possibly cashing in some profits and that's just how I do things but and the reason why it's not because I don't believe in AMD like I was having an argument with someone in the comment section not too long ago because they were saying that I'm an AMD bear which which I thought was hilarious because if there's one person on YouTube that has been like the most bullish on AMD for the past you know for years it's definitely been me I mean I've been preaching AMD for the longest time and not telling anybody to buy it but I've been saying that I've been very bullish on it but when it gets to certain levels you you sometimes have to cash in some profits because you know a m-- deed can't control any kind of macroeconomic issues if we end up getting a crash all those profits will be wiped away and AMD doesn't pay a dividend you know a lot of times a much more comfortable holding a stock long-term for example I bought some AT&T stock today right like I sold some AMD which was up and I actually bought some 18 t which was down like 5% today and 18 T has a dividend of like almost 7% and a dividend growth history of like 35 years so if we go through any kind of recession you know AT&T will likely increase that dividend even through recessions and things like that so it's much easier for me to hold a stock like 18 T through difficult macroeconomic conditions whereas AMD you know not so much you know a lot of my profits can just be wiped away at any moment so that's basically what I'm doing with AMD but again I'm still holding some of my position for the long term I think they're seven nanometer products will help them I think you know the next-gen of home gaming consoles will help them and I think they will continue to see a lot of growth in the data center market as well and so if the stock goes up more I'll still benefit I still have a small position and if it goes down then I will by AMD again which is what I basically always do when AMD stock crashes and it goes down a huge amount everybody's bearish on it I usually end up buying so anyway that's my strategy let me know what you guys are doing I'd love to hear all your thoughts in the comment section below I know that a few other stocks are reporting earnings today like Facebook and Tesla Microsoft but I will be making separate videos for those in the future and I plan on doing some full analysis videos on like Facebook and Microsoft so if you guys want to see those videos make sure you let me know by hitting the like button thank you for all the support I really appreciate it and I'll catch you guys in the next video take care bye bye
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