저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 장기 부채사이클·부/정치 격차·강대국 부상이 맞물린 환경에서 현금은 불리하며, 통화 가치 하락 위험에 대비해 광범위하게 분산투자해야 한다. 거시 환경: 제로금리와 중앙은행의 화폐 발행(양적완화)이 2008년과 1929~1932년에 나타났고, 이를 넘어선 3단계 정책이 재정·통화 정책 공조로 진행되는 것이 현재 시장을 움직이고 있다. 통화와 현금: 제로·마이너스 금리와 대규모 유동성 때문에 현금은 실질 수익률이 마이너스이며 연 약 2%의 세금처럼 손실을 낸다. 1930년대처럼 통화 가치가 점진적으로 하락할 가능성이 있다. 채권: 무수익·마이너스 실질수익률의 채권은 보유 매력이 낮고, 화폐 발행 확대와 맞물려 채권에서 자금이 이탈할 위험이 크다. 정책 전망: 연금·의료·보험 등 비채무 지출 의무가 커서 디폴트 대신 화폐 발행으로 해결될 것이며, 1933년 3월 금본위 연결 해제 후 주식 바닥이 형성된 사례처럼 자산 가격 재팽창(리플레이션)이 일어날 수 있다. 금과 주식: 화폐 발행 수혜 자산으로 금과 특정 유형의 주식이 언급되었으나 구체적 가격 목표는 없다. 정치·세금: 부의 배분을 둘러싼 내부 갈등이 커지며 세금 정책 변화가 예상되고, 투자 환경도 과거와 달라진다고 본다. 포트폴리오 전략: 전통적 60/40 주식·채권 배분을 넘어 금, 물가연동채, 통화 노출, 다양한 자산군으로 분산하고, 전술적 베팅은 분산된 전략적 포트폴리오 위에 얹되 유동성을 중시하라고 권고한다. 조건·리스크: 코로나 2차 유행, 지정학적 긴장, 세금 정책 등 불확실성이 크며, 과거 1945년 이전과 같은 새로운 패러다임에 있다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
i experienced through my lifetime uh surprises about things that never happened in my lifetime before but happened many times in history before and the three forces that we're talking about which is there is a long-term debt cycle the large wealth and political gaps that go with it and the rise of a great power to challenging existing great power happened in the 1930-45 period and happened many times before and are the big drivers not just of the economic environment but of of the whole environment so let me start with the the debt cycle you know in 1945 we began a new world order 1944 we created a new monetary system the bretton woods monetary system and then we created that new world order and that created a bull markets and stocks and an american world order for the most part there's a cycle that we're used to in which whenever you have an economic downturn the central bank hits the gas and can create debt expansion and that produces an increase in demand and that happens in three phases at the cycle normally it's interest rates you lower interest rates and the economy turns up but when you hit zero interest rates which happened in 1932 debt crisis 1932 we hit zero interest rates then you go to the second type of monetary policy in which central banks print money and buy financial assets to add liquidity and those purchases those sellers of bonds who get the cash go out and they buy other financial assets and we have the process going through and that's the second type of monetary policy so the only two times that that happened was 2008 to 9 19 29 to 19 32 zero interest rates print money monetization that'll carry you so far and then there's what i call monetary policy three which means that that money does not trickle down to the population and go all the places that it's needed to go in other words the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy so that the central bank is buying assets of a different sort a wide range of assets producing liquidity and also having the effect of buying government debt and monetizing it and that's the late cycle of an expansion that's what's driving the markets now that's what's driving the economy now for example today the federal reserve and the government is creating the liquidity that we're seeing in the markets and it has big implications for the value of money what is the value of money where does money go cash is going to be a poor investment so that's the character of the environment which means that if you look at the returns of asset classes and you take cash isn't it an interesting world when you have zero or negative interest rates and then there's the desire to create a spread so the short-term rates are lower than long-term rates and then when there's so much liquidity it is the central bank that is making that market so when we look at the market today it needs the storehold of wealth and you see it reflected in all asset classes so that's the main driver and it also has very big geopolitical implications because as we come into this environment where we have the second influence the wealth gap the political gap it means that the distinction of how money and the bills are going to be divided and how that will affect tax policy and the like will matter a lot a bond or debt is a promise to receive currency you're long for currency by being long in the bonds and so on and so when debt is built up and a lot of debt has been built up but beyond that you there's a lot of non-debt obligations pension obligations health care obligations a lot of spending obligations those are like debt and they all have to be met and there won't be defaulting on that it's politically unacceptable to default on pensioners and so on so all of those obligations insurance obligations all of those liabilities are coming at us and that then can be met increasingly by the printing of money and so think about it when you're holding a bond and it has no return and a negative real return do you want to hold that asset who is going to hold that asset particularly when there's so much printing of money and that is currency that is cash and so that issue that risk that there's a movement out of that is significant so now we have to look at historical periods that were analogous to what's going on now and that would i think the particularly the war years um you know the years when there are large deficits that are built up there's the monetization and so when we talk about yield curve control and interest rate controls and guidance uh we're in a new world i mean think about it it's so interesting where does the money come from if you take europe for example the central bank lends to banks at a minus one percent and then so they'll take that credit then they can decide when to roll it or as they roll it forward that means that there could literally be no debt service payments so it is the means by which there's monetization and cash is being produced to solve to deal with those liabilities and that has an important implication in the value of cash which is currency i think it's very much like the 1930s which means it doesn't produce immediately a general level of inflation it negates deflationary pressures and what it does is it produces currency depreciations over a period of time in the 1930s all currencies in the early 30s uh depreciated in relationship at that time in relationship to gold and so what we see is the same kind of thing happening without a general level of inflation not just gold it goes into other storeholds of wealth and stocks particularly certain types of stocks it goes into but very much the same as 1933 in 1933 march of 1933 franklin roosevelt severed the connection with gold printed money and made money available and that was the exact bottom in the stock market very simple similar to april 9th when federal reserve and the treasury did the same thing so that goes into other assets such as stocks and so on creates a reflation it is necessary to be done because the consequences of not doing it are unacceptable the wealth gap and so on we're in a situation where every individual every company every government has a certain amount of revenue a certain amount of expenses and a certain balance sheet and when the revenue goes down to be low or inadequate relative to the expenses and there's not an adequate balance sheet then defaults and restructurings take place that's true for the population as a whole and that's true for a number of businesses hence the policies that we're seeing what has been true in history is that when you have an economic downturn that's a serious economic downturn and less effective monetary policies at that same time and you have a large wealth and values gap and political gaps you ha tend to have fighting internal conflict and so rising internal conflict about how to divide the wealth pie is very very normal historically and so that's the dynamic i think that we're now seeing that will become manifest in changes in tax policy and so on the investment environment going forward will be very different from the environment of the past i mean think about it as a zero and low very low returning asset environment because the liquidity that's in the market is driving the excess returns of all markets down to be low in relationship to the very low cash rate so negative real returns not good for cash until the most important thing is to know how to diversify well and what i mean by that is to go beyond just the traditional 60 40 stock bond mix or even the same countries and to broaden that diversification to include in that portfolio assets that might seem unusual to include some gold to include inflation index bonds to think about the currency exposure to think about safety as different most people think that cash is safe cash is the least safe investment it just doesn't have the same volatility to it but it has because they're producing so much cash it has a negative real return it's a tax that maybe two percent a year you lose money in terms of cash so you have to think about risk differently and you have to diversify best that's the most important thing to have a well-diversified portfolio it's so the uncertainties that we have today are so great in terms of all the things i mentioned the tax policies the geopolitical certainly we must experience it with the virus you know will the next wave come back and how will it be dear diversification can be achieved without reducing your expected returns because of the way that nature asset classes are priced and then if you're going to take tactical bets from those then those tactical bets alpha on top of that strategic well-diversified portfolio should have highly diversified bets deviated liquidity is going to be more important than before because things change in unexpected ways look at how in many of the cases the businesses that you one would have thought was a good business and let's say you're in private equity and you're with that company and so the restructuring the ability to rebalance and diversify and to be cautious about making a highly diversified set of bets is i think the future but thinking even of asset classes thinking about the value of money you know we look at asset classes and we say oh do i want my money to be in stocks and which stocks but we don't think about stocks bonds we think about those traditional asset classes but we don't think about the value of money and what's going to happen in terms of the printing of that value of the money and how to diversifies it well so i think those are the things that have to be paid attention to in much as they were important things in years prior to 1945. we're in a new paradigm
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