저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러가 기축통화 지위를 잃고 금이 준비자산으로서 달러를 대체하는 과정이 진행 중이라고 주장. 금 재평가나 비트코인 매입 목적의 통화 증발은 아무것도 해결하지 못하며, 금본위 복귀 시 부채 청산 효과는 사실상 디폴트에 해당한다고 설명. 각국 중앙은행의 금 매입과 달러 보유 수익률 대비 금 수익의 우위를 근거로 금 가격 상승을 전망. 비트코인은 미국인 보유 비중이 높아 미국 특유의 현상이라고 비판.
다듬은 글
Well, I think there will be destruction. I don't think this will be controlled in any way. Revaluation of gold at our official price, I mean, doesn't change anything. This is just accounting . It doesn't mean anything because we don't do anything with this gold. And if the US government were going to sell gold, it wouldn't sell it at $42.
He would sell it at market price. So, it does n't change anything. There are people who think it gives us extra spending money. No, that's not true. This gives us nothing. I know Senator Lummis says, "Let's revalue gold and then use the money to buy Bitcoin." What money? There is no money. There is only gold.
You don't get any extra money. But if she means using gold to print more money. Let's make the Fed print a bunch of money because we've officially acknowledged how much gold is worth. And then we'll take this newly printed money and use it to buy Bitcoin. It's like, "Okay, let's create inflation and buy Bitcoin." Yes?
Why do we do this? Why do we have to devalue our currency just to buy Bitcoin? So, this doesn't solve any problem. The only thing that would make sense in revaluing gold is if we returned to the gold standard, officially devaluing the dollar, including our debt. Because if we said, " Okay, gold is now worth $20,000 an ounce, and we'll repay our debts in gold at $20,000 an ounce." Yes, we have actually declared default on many of our debts without announcing it, because we will pay everything with gold, which we ourselves have valued at 20 or 30 thousand per ounce.
So we're erasing 90% of our debt. But that doesn't even make sense unless you're going to peg the dollar to gold and support it. Initially, of course, the dollar was not pegged to gold . The dollar was gold. I mean, that was the literal definition of a dollar. The dollar was a certain weight of gold.
That's what it was, right? This was a way of measuring gold. If you had a certain amount of gold, it was called a dollar. This was a legal definition. So, gold was our money. Our money was not backed by gold. Our money was gold. Ultimately, we created a currency backed by money, but the currency itself was never money.
It was a monetary surrogate that could be used instead of money because it was more convenient. But the value of currency was given by the money that backed it, that is, gold. So if we could go back to that standard, yeah, that would be great. But we know we can't do that until we officially devalue the dollar and revalue gold.
But I don't see any desire in Congress to do this, because it would mean having to cut spending. So, you know, they're not cutting spending now, so why would they want to go back to a gold standard that would force them to do that? We abandoned the gold standard because politicians wanted to spend a lot of money they didn't have .
Gold prevented them from doing this . And, you know, when I hear from people in the crypto community, “Oh, gold didn’t work. Gold has crashed. " Gold worked perfectly. That's why the US government abandoned it —because it was doing its job. It would stop them from financing the budget deficit. It would force politicians to make difficult policy decisions that they did not want to make.
So instead of making that choice, they decided to abandon the gold standard, right? But that doesn't mean gold has crashed. These are people, humanity has collapsed, right? And Bitcoin doesn't fix that. Donald Trump has made it clear that we cannot have such trade deficits. And well, that means we lose the dollar's status as a reserve currency, because that's the consequence.
Our trade deficits are a consequence of the dollar being a reserve currency. And this is what allows us to live beyond our means. And this process is coming to an end. At that time, you didn't see much public interest in gold. I mean, most Americans were selling gold throughout that entire period. It was the central banks that were responsible for its accumulation.
And why do they hoard gold? Because they're losing dollars, right? They convert their dollars into gold and forgo the interest they could earn. Because when you have dollars, you can buy Treasury bonds and earn 4%. When you have gold, you earn nothing. In fact, you have to pay a little for its storage.
Or, you know, maybe you have your own storage, but, you know, you have to pay for it. Uh, holding Treasury bonds costs nothing and you get income. But the fact that foreign central banks don't want this income shows that they understand: the income doesn't cover the depreciation of the dollar. So, it is better to own gold, which brings nothing, than dollars, which bring at least some income.
And currently, the profits from gold far exceed the meager interest they could earn from dollars. And I think that's why the price of gold will continue to rise. If you look at the amount of gold held by most central banks, especially in emerging markets and countries with the largest trade surpluses with the US, they have the largest foreign exchange reserves.
But only a tiny fraction of these reserves is channeled into gold. And these reserves are growing because they continue to accumulate dollars thanks to their ongoing trade surplus with us. So more and more of this money and currency will be converted into gold. So, gold is replacing the dollar as the main monetary reserve.
It is not the euro replacing the dollar, the pound, the yen, the yuan, or any other currency. This is real money. I mean, before the dollar became the primary reserve, it was gold. And the only reason the dollar was accepted as a reserve currency was because it could be exchanged for gold. So if you had Federal Reserve notes in the 1950s and 60s, you had gold.
When they said that the dollar was as reliable as gold, it meant that the dollar was gold, only it could earn interest. We failed the world when we reneged on that promise, but gold was the reason the world accepted the Bretton Woods agreement in the first place. Therefore, I believe that this process is now changing.
But you know what's interesting from your perspective, and you should think about it : if you're so sure that Bitcoin is the new gold, that it's better than gold, why are n't central banks buying it now? Why are they all buying gold? If gold is the past and Bitcoin is the future, why are all these central banks ignoring Bitcoin and only buying gold?
40% of all Bitcoin belongs to Americans . And about half of all the people in the world who own Bitcoin are Americans. So this is becoming more and more of an American thing. Because Americans are one of the few people stupid enough to buy into it. We've been grabbing all sorts of junk while the rest of the world is getting rid of its own.
They sell us their Bitcoin. And they buy real things themselves. You know, they're making real investments. They build factories. They produce consumer goods that improve people's lives. What do we do? We create meme coins. Abandoning the dollar in favor of gold in the short term is very bad for America.
Because we built our entire economy on the dollar being a reserve currency. This is why we can live beyond our means. That's why we can buy so much of everything that we don't produce ourselves. That's why we have all these products, right? Donald Trump points out that Americans buy all this from China, India, Canada, Mexico, Europe or, say, Southeast Asia, and everywhere else.
Why is that? Why are all these things coming here? Because they need our dollars. But dollars don't actually have any value, we just create them out of thin air, but because the dollar is a reserve currency, it has a value that it wouldn't have otherwise . So we can buy many things without paying for them with actual export goods .
But since so much of the surplus goes back into our paper money, right? We get artificially low interest rates.
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