저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
통화 발행이 주가를 결정하며, 실질 기준으로 가계는 임금보다 생활비 상승으로 고통받고 금이 구매력 손실을 반영한다. 자산 인플레이션이 자산 디플레이션으로 전환될 수 있고, 상업용 부동산 가격 급락과 AI 데이터센터 과잉 설비 및 신용 품질 저하 위험을 경고한다. 장기적으로 실물 금이 자본 보존 수단이라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Today, it is not the economy that determines what the stock market will do . It is the printing of money that determines what the stock market will do. And in my opinion, as long as the stock market is going up, it dilutes people, so they can spend and the economy looks good. But in real terms, adjusted for inflation, households are suffering because the cost of living is rising more than wages, and the price of gold reflects this loss of purchasing power of money.
Today, the global economy is no longer the primary driver of stock market activity, as massive money printing by central banks dictates modern financial trends. Marc Faber , the legendary Swiss , emphasizes that prolonged stock inflation creates a false sense of wealth that temporarily stimulates consumer spending.
However, adjusted for inflation, ordinary households face serious financial pressures as the real cost of living outpaces average wage growth. This rapid loss of purchasing power of the currency is exactly what drives gold prices higher, where asset inflation completely turns into aggressive asset deflation, severely punishing mainstream investors who lack diversified physical hedg.
Most people think of inflation like this: they go to the supermarket and the prices of the goods they want to buy have gone up , or if they rent an apartment, the rent goes up. So it hurts them. Or, essential goods , such as pharmaceuticals or school fees for their children, are rising. So this hurts the household budget because wages usually don't grow at the same rate as prices.
But there is another type of inflation. It also arises due to monetary inflation, when housing prices rise. In America, homeownership rates are relatively high. So the population benefits from rising housing prices. Stock prices are rising. They call it a bull market, but it's mainly caused by monetary inflation , and stocks are going up.
Who will win? Shareholders . And who are the shareholders ? This is 10% of the population who own perhaps 90% of all shares. And 1% owns 70% of all shares. So these people don't care about grocery bills at the supermarket. They don't care where the stock market goes. And we see this very clearly now.
So as soon as the stock market crashes, Trump and his henchmen will take action to stop the Wall Street mob, and the stock market will rise again. So the question is not whether Israel is or not, or whether Iran is or not. The point is, if the stock market crashes, you can be sure they will find a solution to the war.
And if the stock market goes up, they will become more aggressive again. But Trump wants to be re-elected, and he wants to succeed in these midterm elections . So measures are now being taken to calm the capital market. You know, when I grew up and started working in 1970, the capital market, the stock market, and the bond market were a small percentage of the economy.
For example, the stock market in America fluctuated between 20 % of GDP and, say, 30% of GDP during the 1970s, and now it has reached 150% of GDP. When I started in 1970, $50 million bond issues were considered very large. Nobody has ever released anything close to a billion dollars. They are now regulating issues worth several billion dollars.
It's like nothing. The purchasing power of money has decreased. In German we say that if you have a vest, it's like becoming a good whiskey. You throw water on it, and it has so much whiskey and so much water in it. This is the situation now. And these days, it's not the economy that determines what the stock market will do.
It is the printing of money that determines what the stock market will do . And in my opinion, as long as the stock market is going up, it dilutes people, so they can spend and the economy looks good. But in real terms, adjusted for inflation, households are suffering because the cost of living is rising more than wages, and the price of gold reflects this loss of purchasing power of money.
I started buying, you know, a little bit of gold every month because I was very rich at the time, in the mid-80s. Good. OK. You are very patient. And I continued to do it. I mean, if you asked me, Mark, you'd have to go for 10 or 20 years. You're going to have to go to jail, because we in the financial sector will probably end up in jail one day.
And you can't look after your money, etc. And, uh, you want to preserve the purchasing power of your money, then I would say that gold is a good, uh, tool for preserving capital. I am not claiming here that gold has performed better than Apple over the past 20 years, or better than Google over the past 20 years, etc.
I think if you own the right stocks you should outperform gold , but the risk profile is very different. Ordinary consumers measure inflation by rising supermarket bills, rising apartment rents, and rising education costs. This intense squeeze on household budgets occurs because real wages rarely keep up with the pace of price increases.
At the same time, a huge private credit bubble expanded due to artificially depressed interest rates created by the Federal Reserve. This monetary inflation temporarily inflates certain asset classes, including stocks, luxury goods, and residential real estate. With 10% of the population controlling nearly 90% of all stocks, institutional investors thrive on central bank intervention, while working citizens lag behind.
This prolonged easing of monetary policy is creating extraordinary industrial surpluses, which is setting the stage for massive corporate bankruptcies. This will trigger severe liquidations and credit defaults reminiscent of historical infrastructure disasters. Now let's get back to the interview. Today, people think, well, the cost of everything is going up and corporations are winning, but that's not the case.
Ultimately, it could be that the asset inflation we had was stock appreciation, real estate appreciation, commercial real estate appreciation, collectibles appreciation, and so on. This is essentially asset inflation turning into asset deflation. And I want to emphasize that people have an example of how this can happen.
First, they have purchased commercial real estate before. Commercial real estate in most American cities has now become significantly cheaper. In some cases, 80% of the time , I've seen buildings that were selling for several hundred million in 2018, and now they're selling for 20 million. So, you know, you can print money.
But the problem with printing money is that not everything grows equally. What happens is that printing money raises that asset class, like stocks, and then it raises bonds or commodities or gold or other precious metals like silver and platinum, but it doesn't raise everything equally, so every time in an inflationary environment, some people benefit, but many don't benefit and lose.
I mean, if you look at the stock market today, just look at the list of new highs, it's very disappointing, very few stocks are making new highs because the stock market is largely driven by seven great stocks and semiconductors. My observations are that the capital costs associated with data centers to support AI activities are huge as a percentage of the economy.
I mean, this is a huge boom in capital spending, and I don't usually say that in every case and every time, but usually what happens, especially in a period of monetary easing, is that huge excess capacity develops. Will it be tomorrow or in 5 years, when excess capacity will manifest itself? We don't know, or I don't know; maybe some experts will know, I do n't know.
But when it happens, I'll tell you, every capital spending boom, that is, the construction of canals, railroads, interstate highways, etc. , has led to overcapacity and a huge number of bankruptcies. All the canal companies in America, including the most successful canal ever built in the world, the Erie Canal, I mean, Wall Street is very good at inventing, over and over again , something high-risk that they make money on and then pass it on to customers and so on.
So if you work on a fixed income, you should be familiar. Before that, I worked at Y2, which was also, along with First Boston, something of a fixed- rate firm in Europe. They were with Sigman Warberg and Warberg and company in London, the founders of Eurobonds. So I am very familiar with fixed- rate investments, especially from my experience when I managed Drexel's offices in Asia.
But, uh, you can see that the credit cycle is always the same. It starts with companies that issue quality loans. As a bull market grows, of course, quality continually declines, and especially in a money-printing environment, quality gets thrown out the window. And government after government, I mean the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, they pushed people to take higher risks with artificially low interest rates until August 2020 before they raised rates.
But you understand that there are no interest rates at all. Then every person and fund management rushes to find something where they can get something with a high yield, and so the private lending boom began in large part because of the artificially low interest rates created by the Federal Reserve.
The fundamental structure of capital markets has changed dramatically since the 1970s, expanding from a modest share of GDP to over 150%. Throughout this macrocycle, credit markets follow a predictable pattern , starting with the issuance of high-quality debt and steadily converting to low-quality speculative instruments.
Central bank easing is systematically forcing institutional fund managers to use high-risk assets to emulate returns, completely disrupting the traditional risk management framework for long-term investors seeking to protect their capital over the next two decades. Physical gold remains the main tool for absolute preservation of capital.
While individual stocks of fast-growing technology companies may outperform precious metals during market peaks, their underlying risk profiles differ significantly in a structurally unstable economy. The global financial architecture is facing a serious systemic test as artificial market interventions reach their mathematical limits.
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