저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행의 통화 증발이 지속되면서 금 가격이 종이화폐 대비 상승할 가능성이 크다고 주장. 금은 5,500달러 부근에서 과열 후 4,000달러대까지 조정됐으며 반등 지속 여부는 불확실하다고 봄. 주식은 명목상 오를 수 있으나 실질 가치는 하락할 수 있고, 미래 금융위기 시 국가부채 미상환과 함께 금·은·백금 동전이 화폐 역할을 할 것이라 전망. 상업용 부동산은 재택근무와 고금리로 구조적 약세. 구체적인 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
I expected gold to retain its purchasing power, but I didn't think the dollar would lose its purchasing power relative to gold so quickly. So I couldn't assume that gold would just hit 5,500. Now, at 5,500, it may have temporarily overvalued and has been in a correction since then, as you know. In my opinion, under current conditions, central banks probably have no other option but to print money.
They have alternatives, but in a democracy, these alternatives are very painful. Therefore, it is very difficult to implement a tight monetary policy. So, they will continue to print money, and under such conditions, the price of gold will likely continue to rise relative to paper currencies. The sharp fluctuations in the price of gold attract attention, but the deeper problem is the purchasing power of money.
A higher dollar balance means little when the currency buys less. Marc Faber, a seasoned investor and financial commentator, links gold's appeal to the pressures shaping central bank policy. Its prognosis depends on difficult political choices. Accept the pain of tighter monetary policy or continue to increase the money supply.
He expects politicians to favor printing money, which will eventually support gold prices relative to paper currencies. This prediction comes with an important caveat. He describes gold's pullback from around $5,500 to $4,000 and acknowledges uncertainty about the recovery. His general confidence does not mean belief in every price increase.
And he doesn't offer any new clear price target. He also outlines a bleaker prospect—a financial crisis that cannot be solved by printing money, when national debts remain unpaid. In such a scenario, he expects gold, silver, and platinum coins to take on a more practical role as money. These are his expectations, although the timing of their fulfillment remains uncertain.
The main theme is preserving purchasing power, while it is worth recognizing that precious metals are also going through corrections. If you found this analysis useful, be sure to like it , . There is a common belief among investors: buy stocks because printing money will always push stock markets up.
But that's not the case, and secondly, in nominal terms, even if stocks are rising, they can lose value in real terms because the price level is rising faster than the stock market or the currency is depreciating, and therefore what I would call the real value of the stocks can fall. How do we measure real indicators?
Because in another currency it may be useless, because that currency may also lose its value. So, I suppose that measuring in gold equivalent is one way to adjust every asset, whether it's wine, stocks, or bonds; we could adjust them relative to the price of gold and then say that the real measure is the price of gold .
I don't think I could say about any price movement I've seen in my life that I expected it. Do you understand? First, you don't know when the market will turn around. There are signs of events occurring that may indicate a market reversal. Let's say a " bear" or "bull" market for any commodity or asset ends.
But the exact moment when this will happen is unknown. Now, of course, I expected gold to retain its purchasing power, but I did n't expect the dollar to lose purchasing power relative to gold so quickly. So I wouldn't think gold would just go to 5,500. Now, at 5,500, it may have temporarily overheated and, as you know, has been in a correction since then.
It's like in 1999, gold was still worth $253 an ounce, then it went up to $1,921 in 2008 , and then it went down. Or it was 2009, and then it dropped to 1,500. And 1,000 was actually close to the minimum. And then it went up again. So, in the markets we have step-like movements: the markets make an impulse jump up, then correct, then go up again, then correct again, and so on.
And my opinion is that under the current circumstances, when central banks probably have no choice but to print money. They have alternatives, but these alternatives in a democratic society are very painful. So it is very difficult to implement a tight monetary policy. Therefore, they will continue to print money, and in such conditions, the price of gold will likely continue to rise relative to paper currencies.
Mhm. What do you think about oil, not necessarily wheat, corn or soybeans, which may be going up more than gold right now, but in general, if one's goal is to preserve one's purchasing power, then I think investing in gold is still a good idea. I'm not sure that these contradict each other. But, uh, objectively, if you look at the US, at the current administration, and also take into account the previous one, when the US simply takes and freezes the assets of other countries and so on .
So, if I were a country, I don't know, Kazakhstan, Russia, China, India, Indonesia or whatever, the US would be the last place I would keep assets. Yes. I mean, it would be crazy for China to keep all its money in the US. Under the current administration, it would be madness to think otherwise; The impression is that the USA is a fascist state, where Trump puts his personal interests above all else, like the dictator of a third world “banana republic .” His personal interests are intertwined with the interests of the state and private companies.
And if he likes someone, he says, "Okay, let's deal with him ." The US government and the governments of Western democracies control almost 50% of the economy. They have enormous power. They might give you a contract and say, “ Oh, Darryl, you’re a good guy. Why do n't you do it for us? Even if it's nothing, we'll pay you a million dollars a day or something." this time.
So you can subsidize the companies you like and force the ones you don't like to go bankrupt. This is essentially a socialist way of doing business. Now, the alternatives are, of course, a Kamala Harris-style world where you move towards socialism, expropriate important industries, nationalize them, and shrink the private sector at the expense of the public sector.
So, those are two alternatives. At this point, as I said, the system is more like a " banana republic " government than anything else. This is similar to comic books, where dictators were often depicted as half-witted idiots. And that's exactly what the US government is like today. A stock portfolio can show profits in dollars while simultaneously losing purchasing power.
The difference is between nominal and real returns. The figure on the statement versus what you can buy with that money in goods and services. Gold is another benchmark for studying this difference. Comparing stocks or bonds to gold shows their relative performance beyond just the dollar price. This adds perspective to market returns without making gold an ideal indicator of every household's spending.
The discussion also distinguishes between different manifestations of price increases. Higher stock valuations are called a “bull market,” while higher prices for bread, butter, and other essential goods are recorded as inflation. For households, the practical challenge is the pressure on everyday spending, savings and budgets.
Therefore, the assessment of wealth includes both the results of investments and their purchasing power. The growing balance sheet only tells part of the story. Now let's get back to the interview. I assume that the next crisis will not be solved by printing money. And that there will be huge excitement , chaos.
And the debts will not be repaid. I assume that the national debts will not be repaid. Especially the US government debt . And that then, after that happens or while it's happening, people will exchange goods and services in units that have some intrinsic value. For example, a pack of cigarettes becomes money in prison camps.
Ugh. Because there is no paper money there. There is no money for transactions. The prisoners have no money. But they can operate with cigarettes, or something like that, or Mars bars. Do you understand? Or a bottle of Coca-Cola becomes money. And I assume that gold, silver, and platinum coins will then have the status of money.
I mean, they already have the status of money today. But I can't go to a department store in Thailand or Switzerland with an ounce of gold and expect the store to give me change in other gold coins. Do you understand? They have no change. But in the future you will be able to, the time will come when you will be able to, say, buy back your life for gold coins.
This is not necessarily the scenario I expect, but it will most likely happen, if not in my lifetime, then in yours, since you look so young. If I see the Fed printing money, I am less inclined to buy bonds because I know that the Fed's money printing eventually flows into rising prices in the system.
And not always, but at some point these price increases are reflected in the cost of your life and mine. And this is what we usually call inflation. If the symptoms of money printing manifest themselves in stocks, we call it a "bull" market. When this happens with real estate, we call it a "bull " real estate market.
But when the cost of bread, butter, olive oil, and the necessities of life rise, we call it inflation. In any case, printing money at some point leads not to a bond rally, but to a bond collapse and a rise in the cost of living. And this is, in essence, the end of the functioning of financial assistance from central banks.
At this point, they have to speed up the printing of money because the bond market is falling rapidly, so they are forced to print more and more money to buy these bonds, which are depreciating in value. And...it drives up interest rates dramatically. And at some point, rising interest rates begin to negatively impact assets.
And that's why I say: even if you print money, at some point it may not raise the price of gold. I mean, we saw gold fall from 5,500 to about 4,000. And now we're kind of rising again. But it is not entirely clear whether this growth will continue. Mhm. It's not entirely clear. That is, not for me. Other people think we are back in a "bull" market.
But it's not entirely clear to me. However, even if it's not entirely clear, I want to hold onto some gold. And then the question arises: how to hold gold and in which jurisdiction? Where exactly and so on. This is another topic , but I don't have time to discuss it in detail. If you look at the world money supply or the money supply in the US, it's actually growing rapidly.
And believe me, if money were scarce, if the government pursued a tight monetary policy, the stock market would not grow. The stock market would be lower than it is today. And the dollar would be stronger. And the economy would be weaker. But by printing money, uh , it allows people to borrow money indefinitely, essentially.
And this has fueled an investment boom associated with the necessary investments in artificial intelligence. So, this has its pros and cons. In my opinion, in the long run, the negative will outweigh the positive . But in the short term, printing money can support the economy and contribute to the capital spending boom we are seeing in the AI sector, including semiconductor manufacturing and data center construction.
Take an asset like commercial real estate in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, Baltimore, Chicago, New York, and so on. Prices fell due to structural changes. Technology has allowed people to work from home. Or take me—I'm in the investment business. 50 years ago, to work in finance, I had to be in a financial center like Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, London, Zurich, or something else.
But today I can be anywhere with a computer and internet access and conduct my financial affairs as if I were in a financial center equivalent to Wall Street or Broad Street in New York. Do you understand? This changed —the economic geography of the world changed thanks to the Internet. And commercial buildings, as a result of this in America, some commercial properties have lost 80% of their value.
I mean, I don't know about Vancouver, maybe they have n't built as much as other cities, but it seems to me that commercial buildings in downtown areas are not or have not been particularly good investments, especially since a lot of them were financed when interest rates were artificially low. And now that interest rates are higher, the returns on these investments have decreased or been completely eliminated.
Well, printing money doesn't always help. I mean, the prevailing view among investors is to buy stocks because printing money will always push stock markets up. But that's not the case, and secondly, in nominal terms, even if stocks are going up, they can lose value in real terms because the price level is going up more than the stock market, or the currency is going down, and so I would say in real terms the value of stocks can go down.
Ownership involves more than just choosing an asset. The location of an asset, the rules for accessing it, and the institutions involved also shape its value. This is why people express concerns about storing foreign reserves in another country's financial system. The discussion about frozen assets puts jurisdiction at the center of the argument.
From this perspective, trust in currency and trust in unhindered access to assets are separate issues. The same attention to ownership appears in comments about gold. How it is held and where it is stored remains an important part of the discussion. Another example concerns commercial real estate. He attributes the pressure on office real estate to remote work , changing business needs, and financing arranged when interest rates were lower.
Technology is also emerging from the other side of the picture through spending on artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, and data centers. He recognizes both productive investments and the weaknesses associated with easy credit. The broader lesson is to examine the asset, its financing, and the conditions surrounding ownership.
Understanding these details adds meaning to any discussion about wealth preservation and financial security. If this was help topic, and subscribe so you don't miss the next one. Be vigilant, be .
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