저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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2023년 9월 영상의 결론: 그랜섬은 주식시장 거품 붕괴의 1단계는 끝났지만 2단계 하락이 아직 남아 있으며, 극심한 경기침체와 주택시장 거품 붕괴가 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 금리 인하 관련: 과거 1929·2000·2007년 거품기에는 첫 금리 인하 후에도 시장이 추가 하락했고, 1974년은 예외적으로 상승했다. 첫 금리 인하만으로는 약세장이 끝나지 않는다는 취지. 하락 시점: 그랜섬은 최종 저점이 2024년 또는 2025년까지 갈 수 있다고 보며, 향후 12~18개월간 기업 펀더멘털 악화 정도가 방향을 결정한다고 본다. 다만 하락 시기와 폭은 확신할 수 없다고 언급. 부동산: 주택 거품 붕괴가 주식 하락보다 더 큰 영향을 줄 지표이며, 밴쿠버·런던·파리·상하이·시드니·대만 등 고평가 부동산 시장을 지목. 캐나다는 1년간 12% 하락했다는 인용. 중산층이 가장 큰 타격을 받을 것이라 함. 정치·지정학: 대통령 주기상 연말~이듬해 4월 구간 수익률이 약하다는 과거 데이터 인용. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 곡물·석유·비료 공급 불안이 커졌고, 여러 위기가 동시에 터지는 'Polycrisis'가 대침체를 부를 수 있다고 경고. 투자 전략: 신흥국은 상대적으로 저평가. 저평가 종목 매수·고평가 종목 공매도인 'Equity dislocation' 전략 추천. 장기 투자자는 금리 변동과 글로벌 부동산 하락을 경계하라는 조언. 유의: 자막 자동인식 오류가 있고, 영상은 2023년 발언 기준이라 현재 시점과 다를 수 있음.
다듬은 글
is wonderful it's a almost guaranteed to be wrong they have never called a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles rising in recurring crisis on a global scale like the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 or the Russia Ukraine crisis or even the rising tensions in the Middle East have had a significant and growing impact on the financial markets around the world since the beginning of this decade but what if the worst is yet to come what if someone were to say that we are not at our worst Point yet well that is exactly what Jeremy Grantham is saying but firstly who is Jeremy Grantham Roberto Jeremy Golf Club Grantham is a British Economist and investor who is also the co-founder and chief investment strategist of GMO LLC an American Investment organization over the years Grantham has developed Keen interests as a Keen Eye on financial markets and has been rightly able to predict micro fluctuations for more than 50 years now and his predictions have mostly been right he correctly anticipated the bursting of the Japanese bubble in the late 1980s and the.com on bubble in the late 1990s and even warned the world that the oncoming housing bubble in 2008 which is considered to be the Catalyst of the 2008 financial crisis but coming back to the present and what Grantham has to say about the financial situations right now the rising bullish enthusiasm at present would lead to an interest rate cut in the coming months according to Grantham an interest rate cut would drive the market up now the news is not as rosy as it sounds it is necessary to look at the historical data we have at hand it is important to look at the four major economic bubbles in the United States that have happened in the last century in order to rightly understand the consequences of the upward climb better the four major bubbles occurred in the Years 1929 1974 2000 and 2007.
in three out of the four years that is in 1929 2000 and 2007 the interest rate Cuts were soon followed by market rate cuts which goes on to reiterate the impact that a single interest rate cut can have when we take into consideration negative fundamentals as well well now it is also true that the opposite scenario has taken place in 1974 the market actually rose up after a significant 62 real value decline in the two years that preceded it which also coincided with the First Rate cut by the Federal Reserve but then again it is not wise to let a singular incident overshadowed the mixed results that the Federal Reserve has had over the last century especially after the 2000 and 2007 first-rate cuts the 2000 and 2007 first-ranked Cuts also show that the First Rate Cuts alone are not enough to bring the bear Market to an end this point has to be reiterated as investors generally have a tendency to ignore historic downfalls and move ahead with a positive attitude and this by their own fault leads them into a deep ditch now Jeremy Grantham has actually warned us that the ongoing financial crisis has not really come to an end and in fact the phase 2 of the stock market crash is just about to arrive he also highlights the various assets that investors could purchase which continue to offer attractive returns and value propositions according to an article that Grantham wrote for GMO the first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete the most speculative gross stock set led the market on the way up have been crushed and a large chunk of the total losses across markets that we expected to see a year ago have already occurred unfortunately for us though that is not where things end and in reality things are only going to get more complicated at present the valuations are nowhere close to the long-term averages although they are in reduced form and if historical data were to be trusted these valuations have a tendency to over correct themselves below the trend line owing to deteriorating fundamentals this is an outcome that is still very likely but the timing and extent of the next market decline cannot be predicted with certainty due to the ever-changing landscape of the world additionally there are other factors to be taken into consideration like changing presidential cycle the ongoing strength of the labor market the reopening of the Chinese economy and the subsiding inflation that could affect the pause or delay of the bear Market the level of deteriorating corporate fund fundamentals will determine the next 12 to 18 months said Jeremy Grantham Grantham also advises long-term investors to be wary of the changing interest rates and the potential downturn in the global property Market which would always significantly on the economy both in the present and in the near future Grantham also shifts his attention to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine its consequences on the global market and the uncertainty surrounding it he lays his finger on how the crisis would impact the markets for grain oil seat and fertilizers Russia's invasion of Ukraine created instability on a geopolitical level and the end a result of the invasion cannot be assessed right now but what we do know is that the primary consequences including limited security supply and possibly affecting the vulnerable and developing nations that surround both countries from both an economic as well as a financial perspective the investors are never keen on the uncertainties and most likely than not uncertainties lead to negative outcomes leading to the usage of the term holy crisis Paul crisis refers to the occurrence of multiple catastrophic events simultaneously according to Grantham even if a single event were to spiral out of control it could lead to a severe Global recession that would make the 2008 Global financial crisis look like Child's Play according to Grantham the most important factor to keep an eye out for would be the bursting of the housing bubble which is more likely to have a more severe impact as compared to the decline inequities and that would be just the beginning while in the US there has been an extreme overpricing of the stocks in other parts of the world like Vancouver London Paris Shanghai Sydney and Taiwan it is a real estate market that have shown cases of overpricing Corrections in the real estate asset or real estate markets would take much longer than Corrections in the equities market and the real estate markets are directly linked to other markets and other sectors of the economy like construction or other related Industries this automatically makes it one of the most crucial indicators of an economic slowdown and who would an economic slowdown affect the most Ram random believes that the middle class would be the most affected as they tend to rely on real estate and housing as part of their retirement plans there would be a severe customer in ease due to their vulnerability to declining housing prices in fact Australia and Canada two countries that are considered to have a stable real estate market have already began seeing a decline in real estate prices according to Reuters International Canada has seen a 12 percent drop in just the last year an estimate suggests that other markets considered to be overpriced are likely to follow suit Grantham also goes a step further and takes a presidential cycle into consideration which is a recurring event that has significantly impacted the markets over the years He suggests that a change in the presidential cycle would prolong the bear Market he quotes historical data for this according to which in the months between October and the second year of April or the third year of a presidential cycle the returns for these six months have been equal to the remaining months of cycle now the actual profitability of occurrence is low but the fact remains that the trend has repeated itself over the last 40 five years Grantham also brings the relationship between Market troughs into picture the relationship between recessions and marketross especially during the bubble periods of 1929 1974 2000 and 2007 show different Dynamics as compared to the usual systems of the bull market Grantham mentions cases that the lowest points of the market materialize after a significant amount of time usually recessions precede a bear Market by almost seven to eight months but when it comes to psychological bubbles the bear markets could follow much later keeping this in mind Grantham suggests that the final low for the current crisis could hit well into 2024 or maybe even 2025 but not all news is negative Grantham also recommends investment opportunities that could still be considered reasonable gmo's 70 asset class forecasts reveal that the Emerging Markets are actually decently priced Grantham also recommends Equity dislocation strategy which says it is better to take a long position in monetarily priced stocks in a short position in over price ones although financial markets have been facing difficulties it is quite possible that we aren't at the weakest Point yet but there are investment opportunities that are still viable and when someone like Jeremy grantham's caliber is one saying it it is much better for our own good but we listen to it for more similar updates keep supporting us by liking sharing and subscribing to our Channel
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