저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Ray Dalio는 2024년 스태그플레이션으로 각국 중앙은행이 금리를 인하할 것이라 보며, 주식과 채권 하락 및 미국 경기침체(2023~2024)를 전망한다. 금리 전망: 연준은 기준금리를 4~5%까지 올려야 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있다고 주장하며, 이후 대선 전 금리인하가 필요하다고 언급. 선물시장은 약 2년 내 미국 금리인하를 반영 중이라고 소개. 채권 시장: 연준의 국채·모기지채 축소가 두 배로 확대되며 수요처(연기금, 중국 중앙은행)가 줄어 채권 시장에 우려. 실질 채권 수익률은 크게 낮아졌다고 지적. 인플레이션 헤지: 원자재와 가격전가력(pricing power) 주식에 투자 중이라고 밝힘. 부채 문제: 미국 공공부채 약 32.5조 달러, 이자 부담 증가로 성장 둔화와 생산성 하락 우려. 국채 공급 증가에 수요가 없으면 금리 상승 압력 발생. 리스크 요인: 우크라이나 전쟁, 중국의 글로벌 질서 위협, 미국 정치 불안, 유럽 에너지 위기 등을 거론. 투자 전략: 자산군·통화·국가 간 분산투자가 핵심이며 이를 '성배'라 표현. 기술 기업은 신기술을 무시하는 기업, 과대광고 파괴자, 신기술로 경쟁우위를 얻는 기존 기업 셋으로 구분하며 기존 강자에 집중 권고. 현금 비중: 불확실성 대비 현금이 안전자산·유연성 수단으로 포트폴리오에 포함될 가치가 있다고 주장. 장기 성장성은 주식·부동산보다 낮지만 분산 전략에서 의미 있는 수익을 낼 수 있다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 금리는 더 오를 수 있으며, 부채 증가와 정책 실패로 미국 경제 침체 가능성이 높다고 봄.
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you lose the parts of the economy the parts of the market that are the bubble parts that needed the cash flow right so you're seeing it reflected in what is the Pinnacle of Ray Dalo investing the advantages of diversification are widely recognized including lower risk due to exposure to many revenue streams Ray doio calls diversity the Holy Grail of investing in his book principles in a recent interview Ray Dario stated that the Federal Reserve will need to lower interest rates in order to fight sack Bray Dario stated that he believes interest rate cuts by central banks worldwide by 2024 will occur as stagflation strikes the international economy the billionaire investor stated that he believes the US markets would be so badly damaged by a prolonged period of high inflation that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would be necessary prior to the 2024 election a combination of high inflation and slow growth is referred to as stagflation given its correlation with Rising unemployment declining consumer spending and decreased earnings it can be catastrophic for stock markets although it's decreased a little to 88.3% in April inflation is still perly nearing all-time highs Dario believes that the FED will not be able to control Rising prices very soon an additional fact of fueling worries about stagflation is low growth the oecd reduced its forecast by 1.5% points and the World Bank recently warned that a recession will be hard to avoid and decrease its Global growth projection from 4.1 to 2.9% instead of focusing on fixed income invest ments Dario told the financial review that he is making inflation hedge investments in Commodities and pricing power stocks while everyone was waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce its third jumbo interest rate hike Ray Dario the founder of Bridgewater Associates issued a cautionary note to those who are holding on to optimism that depreciated asset values would soon rise according to doio the fed's attempts to control inflation will be unsuccessful unless it persists in Rising interest rates significantly diio believes that as a result of these and other causes including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine stocks and bonds will likely continue to decline and the US economy will likely enter a recession in 2023 or 2024 in order to reduce inflation fed chairman Jerome pal has promised that the bank will stop at nothing even if doing so destroys the economy and markets but in order to do this Dario thinks the FED needs to increase Benchmark interest rates to a level that is between 4 and 5% the federal reserve's 3 75 basis point interest rate hike will cause the FED funds rate to rise Beyond 3% for the first time since the financial crisis according to the cm's FED watch tool Futures Traders believe that the FED May Hike The Benchmark rate to as high as 4.5% by July which would support trillions of dollars worth of assets however Traders believe there is only a remote possibility that the rate will rise to 5% prior to another rate cut moving by the FED after reaching its greatest point in over 40 years during the summer inflation in the United States has somewhat decreased however when components of core inflation such as housing cost proved more tenacious last month than economists had predicted a report on consumer price pressures in August sent financial markets into a tail speed last week however the prolonged energy crisis in Europe has caused prices for everything from consumer products to heat to rise even more sharply higher interest rates are a death sentence for real assets like the property Market as well as Financial assets as Dario demonstrated with some of the most fundamental ideas in corporate finance to put it simply investors need to adjust the discount rate they use to calculate the present value of future cash flows or interest payments associated with a particular stock or Bond as interest rates rise investors usually make up for this levy on these future revenue streams inflation and higher interest rates by lowering the valuation although Dalo stated that he anticipates further losses in stocks he specifically mentioned the bond market as a source of concern according to doio the issue is that the Federal Reserve is no longer monetizing the federal government's debt the rate at which Treasury and mortgage bonds are removed from the central bank's balance sheet will be doubled by the FED in September who will purchase these bonds Dario questioned then pointed out that the real return on bonds has moved significantly lower when adjusted for inflation which has made Pension funds globally and the Chinese Central Bank Less inclined to purchase when asked about his predictions for the direction of the markets Dalia responded with a witty jab because of the significance of diversification massive economic developments growing government debt Rising interest rates and political unrest Rayo suggests that cash is a prudent alternative when making Investments Rayo reveals three significant economic trends that will impact the future and suggest that cash is a great alternative for Investments a person may only see some important Global occurrences in their lifetime such as pandemics and world wars which emphasizes the value of researching historical Trends to comprehend their causes as interest payments on the US government's mounting debt increase the economy may slow down and productivity May decline interest rates will climb further presenting a danger to the Global Financial system if the US government floods the board Market with new bonds due to increasing borrowing and there is no demand with the rise of populism and China posing a serious threat to the current Global Order the United States is facing major political problems and external crisis in an unstable Financial Market diversification across asset classes currencies and Nations is essential for reducing risks and safeguarding Investments sort businesses into three categories see clear of those who ignore new technology keep an eye out for overhype disruptors and concentrate on wellestablished businesses that are using new technology to gain a Competitive Edge cash offers flexibility and ser as a safe haven in the event of unanticipated occurrences or Market changes making it a great addition to any investment strategy for 2024 and Beyond Ray Dario is a specialist in interpreting generational economic Trends he's identified three significant economic shifts that most people believe have never experienced in their lives and that are crucial to knowing where to put money down for a successful future three major events that most people have never seen in their lives are taking place right now which emphasizes how important it is to be formed of changes occurring throughout the world when the enormous $33 trillion in interest payments on the US debt start to pile up there could be a problem interest rates will climb further if the US government floods the bond market with new bonds as a result of its increased borrowing which might have serious negative effects China represents a serious threat to the current Global Order which has traditionally suffered when faced with similar obstacles to reduce risk and shield investments from unanticipated events Ray Dalo highlights the value of having a diverse Investment Portfolio when it comes to investing in AI Ray doio suggests that businesses be divided into three categories those who ignore new technology innovate disruptors and well established businesses using new technology for the upcoming years think about adding cash to your Diversified portfolio manage risk and opportunity keeping in mind its potentially bid Market swings unanticipated events governments have been borrowing more money year after year and have no intention of stopping which is going to cause the US to face difficulties down the road into inv pay dir Mount as the amount of debt increases more tax money is needed to pay interest which slows down the economy and lowers productivity this forces firms to earn less money which may result in cost cutting and downturn the economy although cash does not offer the same long-term growth potential as stocks or real estate it can nevertheless yield significant returns when held as part of a diversified investment strategy as opposed to savings accounts according to the Australian financial review billionaire hedge fund Creator ra Dalo predicted that in 2024 central banks worldwide will have to lower interest rates as stag inflation continues to strain their economies according to Futures markets are pricing in rate decreases in the US in about 2 years as well as in other major economies like the UK since more than 60 monetary authorities have already increased borrowing prices in an effort to slow down rapidly Rising inflation a lot of attention is currently focused on how quickly the tightening will go the US is about to enter a debt crisis as billionaire investor Ray Dalia predicted just a month ago and it may already be happening Charlie aalo Chief Market strategist of creative planning tweeted recently that when the long-running political dispute over the sovereign debt cealing was resolved in early June the government's borrowing increased an astounding $1 trillion in just one month total amount of outstanding public debt has reached $32.5 trillion that's all for today if you like this video please give us a thumbs up make sure to subscribe to our Channel and hit the Bell icon to receive notifications also express your valuable thoughts in the comment section below until then bye also spend some time watching other videos on the channel
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