저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Munger/Buffett식 투자 원칙 설명: 이해 가능한 기업만 검토하고, 신규 상장(IPO)은 수수료 구조상 매력 낮아 회피, 고수수료 상품은 배제. 구글·애플은 훌륭한 기업이지만 확신이 부족해 매수하지 않으며 공매도도 하지 않겠다는 입장. 철도 산업은 경제성과 효율성을 근거로 장기 긍정 평가. 중국 기업의 성장 잠재력 언급은 있으나 구체적 가격 예측은 없음.
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other thing that is I think helpful on the in Reverse is a as a place to look looking at things that other smart people are buying that is not a crazy search search method is a sorting device for opportunities to consider Charlie knew me when I used to look at I grab the Graham Newman reports as fast as they would come out yeah sure you know it uh if gra Newman was doing something it was certainly worth my time to look at no or has made a lot of people Rich he doesn't even know he just copied him I would describe it as we try to stay away from the things to start with that that we don't understand and when I say don't understand it isn't that I don't understand you know what a certain business does but when I say understand it means that I think I have a reasonably reasonable fix on about what the earning power and competitive Position will look like in five or 10 years so I've got I've got some notion of how the industry will develop and where the company will stand within the industry well that eliminates a whole bunch of things and then beyond that if the price is crazy even though I understand it that eliminates another Bunch so you get down to a very small uh universe and you get down to a particularly small Universe when we're working with lots of money as we are now but uh we well I would say this I can't recall any time in the last 30 years at least that we' bought a new issue have we surle I can't think of one no no I mean the idea that somebody is bringing something to Market Today a seller who has a choice of when to come to Market and that that security where there's going to be a lot of hoop lot connected with it is going to be the single cheapest thing to buy out of thousands and thousands and thousands of businesses in the world is nonsense you know so and when it carries a 7% commission yeah or higher it's ridiculous it's ridiculous so you know you know you know it can't be the most attractive thing now you know it but people get excited about what's coming and all that sort of thing but I will guarantee you that that if you have thousands of opportunities among stocks all over the world and most of them are not being promoted or being sold with special Commissions in them or something else and then some other Security is coming to Market that day when the seller picks the time to bring it as opposed to just this auction Market operating otherwise you know it just doesn't make any sense to even be to spend five seconds thinking about new issues so we don't think about them and we also uh you know there's Industries we know they may have a wonderful future but we don't have the faintest idea who the winners will be so we don't think about those either so there's a whole lot of things we don't think about and we have have a Charlie and I have a number of filters that things have to get through very quickly before we're willing to think about them and and sometimes we're thought of as rude probably Charlie's thought of that way a little more often than I am uh sometimes we're thought of as rude because people will call us and they say they start explaining some idea to us and it just doesn't make it for the first filter or two and so we just we think we're saving their time if we just politely say you know that we just have no interest and we don't want to have you finish the sentence uh but we we do that don't we we don't we don't have to do very many things that work I mean that's the beauty of this business you don't you don't have to be able you know to spell 500 words or something to get to the end of the spelling be and beat everybody else you just have to do one or two things every now and then that that where you don't make a big mistake and where every now and then one works out real well and the solution you know you'll get a good result you can't have a big disaster I mean you you just you know that is that's what we try to avoid uh we do not ever want to lose a significant percentage of berkshire's net worth and uh so far we haven't I think there are a couple of little rules of thumb if it's got a really large Commission in it forget it don't read it because the chance of somebody who is paying a very high commission to give you a big advantage it's it's very low how long do you think will take China to appear a Jan company like Coca-Cola and in which industry you think it will be thank you how long will take China to do what with I didn't quite get that one connection to Coca-Cola yeah how long will take China to do what oh uh just how long do you think it will take China to appear a great company like Coca-Cola and in which industry you saying well kind China already has some great companies uh it's hard to think of a great branded goods company but China has some very great companies already yeah hula why with I I can't I can't pronounce them but they've got some very great companies yeah so far it has not been Chinese fast food companies that have been exported to the United States as opposed to you know we we've got over 500 ber queens now in in in China uh we tend to export certain uh products well some consumer products entertainment products that sort of thing I but China's got some huge companies and and uh uh they may they may eclipse in market value you know some of the ones such as Coca-Cola that we're talking about is Google inevitable is it reminiscent of the advertising agencies you owned in the 1970s I.E a tollbridge on All Digital spending that's highly likely to keep growing over time what are the one or two things about Google for example that you think are real risks and what about Apple well those are extraordinary companies obviously uh and both they're both huge companies they make lots of money they earn fantastic Returns on Capital they look very tough to dislodge where they have their strengths uh I you know I I would not be at all surprised to see them be worth a lot more money 10 years from now but I wouldn't want to to buy either one of them I I I do not have I not get to the level of conviction that would cause me to buy them but uh I sure H wouldn't short him either Charlie well I think we can fairly say that that other people will always understand those two companies better than we do we have the reverse of an edge and we're not looking for that now he's going to say isn't the same thing true in IBM well I don't think it is I think IBM is easier to understand yeah the chances of being way wrong in IBM are probably less at least for us than being way wrong with Google or Apple but that doesn't mean that those the latter two companies aren't going to do say far better than IBM I mean uh but we wouldn't have we wouldn't have predicted what would happen with apple 10 years ago and uh it's very hard for me to predict you know what will happen with the next 10 years they're certainly you know they've come up with these brilliant products there's other people trying to come over with brilliant products and I just don't know how to evaluate the people are out there working either in big companies or in garages that are trying to think of something that will change the world the way they have changed it in recent years and what do we know about computer science there's no reply there's no question that railroads utilities insurance companies uh are all very much affected by the political process uh fortunately I think in the railroad industry you know we've got economics on our side and uh economics usually went out I mean if we we can move a ton of product 500 miles on one gallon of diesel and that may may be three times or so as efficient as as uh Trucking and that may be why the railroads currently move say 42% of all in city traffic I don't think our percentage is going to go down the railroad industry as a whole no matter what the politics may be it's just too compelling to move heavy traffic long distances over steel rail and in terms of congestion in terms of of emissions all kinds of reasons so uh we've got a wonderful product and there will always be struggles in the political Arena between competitors in railroads and customers in railroads it's just it's the nature of the game and there'll be some of that in utilities too uh but overall I like our our position in that they they do have to be involved in politics I mean the railroads all four of the big railroads are going to be involved in the political process because people who have got who would like to change some of the rules either as customers or competitors are going to be in politics too and and things will get decided uh in state capitals and and more important in Washington uh of importance so they they will they will they'll have lobbyists and they'll play a political game and and and their opponents will uh I like our position I I the it would be very dumb for the country to do anything that discourage the railroad industry from spending the kind of capital that will need to be spent to take care of the transportation needs of this country in the future it uh if you think about the money that will have to be spent on highways and and you know the costs involved in there and the uh the congestion problems the emissions problems and everything I uh the country has a strong interest in in in in the railroad industry having every incentive to invest and the railroad industry pays its own way you know it uh uh we'll spend $3.9 billion dollar this year uh and a lot of it will go to improve our presence system an awful lot and some will go toward expansion of of of of of a type and uh uh the country will be better off on that and the federal government will not right a check for it Char yeah it's in the nature of things that there are waves of good brakes and bad brakes buron Northern was enormously helped when you could double the container Carriage by making the tunnels a little uh higher and the bridges a little stronger and they were enormously helped when they found all this oil in North Dakota and there weren't any pipelines and they will get some bad breaks too occasion Ally where somebody will take away a little Freight but averaged out it's a terrific business with terrific management I don't think our main problems are political at all no the railroad industry for one thing we're headed by a prominent Democrat the railroad industry was um that may not be a help Charlie right after World War II now there was a lot of Passenger traffic then but the railroad industry I think had as many as a mil 700,000 employees in the United States and here we are today there's less than 200,000 I mean that railroads have become so much more efficient uh it's just by a huge factor and uh uh it's a fundamentally very good way to move heavy stuff a long distance I mean you just it's hard to conceive of anything you know it's nice maybe to have barg traffic but but you only got a few few few rivers that are going to lend themselves to real volume along that line and and uh so you know you have air pipeline you know Vehicles planes trains trains are pretty darn good okay station four
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