저자: DavidFlanks · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 현재 매출 80%가 전기차 판매인 자동차 회사이므로 로보택시·옵티머스 등 미래 기대는 불확실성이 크다. 재무는 양호(2023 매출 +18%, 자기자본 약 620억달러, 현금흐름 플러스)하지만 머스크의 지배지분 확대 요구와 거버넌스 문제로 추가 매수는 보류. 보유 중이며 공매도는 안 함. 캐시 우드의 5년 2,000달러 전망은 과도하다고 비판.
다듬은 글
what is Tesla worth if you were willing to sell it at $300 or $400 and you're buying it now what is it worth in 5 years 2,000 we're imprint on that this reminds me very much of uh 201819 we're in a bit of a trading range and we will be until more and more analy investors understand how provocative the convergence of these three Technologies is going to be my favorite Buffet quote of all time has to be be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy and Kathy Wood is doing just that she and her Arc investment fund are buying Tesla like wildfire despite the fact that Tesla is officially the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 this year however Tesla announced earnings on Tuesday and it seems like it might be in the midst of its biggest pivot ever the stock is down 40% but recently popped after their q1 earnings this pop happened most likely because investors like the story Elon told this kind of smells like an opportunity in the past Kathy and her Arc investment fund have received a lot of heat for their outlandish predictions even going so far to say that Bitcoin will be worth $3.8 million a coin by 2030 so to make sure we're not just buying a narrative we'll dive into Tesla's actual numbers to see what the company has going for it and make no mistake about it there are a lot of interesting things going on at Tesla right now from their semi-truck to a revamped Roadster or perhaps a new affordable model 2 or even a new crossover project called project Redwood to even some of their non-automotive Innovations including becoming a robo taxi company Tesla solar or even an insurance company and the biggest one that Bulls are excited for is the robotics project Optimus but we have to measure this against a big thing that Elon is known for talking things up without delivering that is until he does but it's usually years after his original prediction so we'll separate the chaff from the wheat and take a sober look at the business and Financial Health of Tesla to try to figure out where the business is heading these are the first two steps in flanks approach to investing without anchoring a basic understanding of the business today and its Financial Health you can't really start a conversation on where the company is going full disclosure upfront I am a Tesla shareholder in my non-public Holdings and have been since 2016 and yes I was an early user of Robin Hood but I literally closed my portfolio the day they halted trading on GameStop despite having no dog in that fight and that's because it became clear to me that Robin Hood cared more about citadel's Ken Griffin than the individual investors it was purportedly trying to help but anyway since I bought in 2016 Tesla is obviously one of the best performing stocks I've ever bought I also drive a Tesla and I absolutely love that vehicle if it's your first time here welcome although my Tesla position is outside of my public portfolio I do have a public portfolio where I'm actively investing $1,000 of my own money I currently have two positions representing about 40% of the total fund with 30% or $330,000 in Lululemon and 10% or $10,000 in Disney both have performed pretty well especially Lululemon which is up about 8% at the time of this recording I only took that position last week and so I want to be clear about one thing that was complete luck it is completely random that that stock went up in such a short term it is impossible to predict the market in the short run there's just as likely of a chance that lemon would have moved against me as much as it did that it moved with me although it absolutely is nice when the stock does move with you anyway before we dive into Tesla it's been a busy week in the markets we kicked off earning Seasons last week with more than 14% of the S&P 500 reporting and a majority reporting this week of the companies that have reported 73% have beaten earnings expectations according to fact sheet most of the banks reported good news last week Goldman Sachs reported a nearly 30% in earnings boost but the stock remained flat based on management forecasting Bank of America also beat expectations but the stock fell 3% again off of weak forecasting speaking of banks Tik Tock may need to hire Bankers for a force sale after a Tik Tok ban passed Congress 360 to 58 on Saturday we we made a video on how to profit off of a ban in that video we also cover the funding history of the company and why it's so sus the biggest thing this earning season is telling us is that fear is re-entering the market and we should love that as investors it gives us a chance to wait for our favorite companies to go on sale okay back to Tesla at the top of this video we talked about how important it is to understand the business I think that understanding the business today is vital before you start any follow-on discussions of what the business could do in the future we log ourselves into flank check out Tesla's company I really do think the best way to start the how do they make money portion is to go right to the source to their annual report so we follow the link through and we go to Tesla's investor relations page filter for their annual report and then pull out their most recent annual report which came out in January then we hyperlink over to my favorite section of the annual report part one item one business from there we see that Tesla operates with two business segments automotive and then energy generation and storage Automotive covers the sale of their EVS obviously servicing costs sale of used vehicles paid superchargers vehicle insurance and retail merchandising fun thing this segment also covers the sale of Automotive regulatory credits the second segment includes the sale of solar energy and energy storage products all things related to solar then if we continue to scroll down we can see that they go into a break down of every single one of these in really good detail this is a great section to read let's continue on and see how these numbers actually break down you can see here that there is no doubt despite all the chest beating from Elon and the hype from Kathy Woods saying that this company is so much more than a car company right now if we look at the cash flows today Tesla is absolutely undoubtedly an automotive company the majority of their business is the sale of EVS it repres present about 80% of their revenue it's not robotics it's not a Solar Company hell it's not even a charging infrastructure company as some Bulls want to claim this business is absolutely a car company today to call it anything else is complete speculation bordering on gambling on an uncertain future and you can lose this script really quick when you start playing the what if game so how do we Square this seemingly crazy prediction from Kathy Wood what is it worth in 5 years 2,000 we're in print on that all of this could come true but there's just so much uncertainty in those predictions and uncertainty is risk if we take a look at their Financial Health it's what you'd expect from a magnificent 7 company their revenue grew 18% in 2023 and their 5year revenue growth is 35% because they experienced so much growth they've seen shaky net income through the years only reporting $15 billion last year their balance sheet is actually pretty healthy despite the huge Capital expenditures the company has had to to make to bring their gigafactories online and they currently have a book value of $62 billion about a 40% increase from the year prior if we go to their cash flow statement we can see that the company does do a little bit of share BuyBacks and they are cash flow positive okay so the company is pretty financially healthy that was a cursory overview and if we were actually looking to take a position we'd want to look a lot harder at that now that we understand the business today let's talk about Kathy Wood's predictions to see what it would take to make them come true we don't think Tesla is a car company it's a robot company it's an energy storage company uh it is an artificial intelligence company and we think those Technologies are converging uh and that Tesla is the biggest AI project in the world it's evident from all the interviews as well as arc's public documentation that they believe robotaxis and optimists are the key drivers to Tesla's future success she believes vehicle sales or margin compression isn't a huge deal because they want to build out the fleet of these Robo taxies and then act as a Marketplace like an Airbnb or an Uber this is interesting but woo there is a ton of uncertainty there are a couple of other things I'd like to see before even considering adding to my position of Tesla the first thing we'll look at is who's at the helm of Tesla this normally falls under step four of our five-step buffet style investing approach and if you want to want to go further in depth you can check out this video which we cover how we assess management and we all know who's at the helm of Tesla it's Elon Musk and he's not really the CEO that he was 5 years ago recently he's been threatening to not build Tesla into the AI robotics leader that Kathy woods and other Bulls are expecting to become unless he owns 25% of the company he currently owns 20.5% and he claims that this is so that he can be influential but not so much that he can't be overturned nah buddy that's absolute utter it's so he can make more money for himself and threatening us as shareholders that if the big baby doesn't get his way then he's going to pack up his Ai and Robotics technology and move it out of Tesla is is ridiculous we shouldn't buy that make no mistake about it if he does this Tesla will crash unless they pivot we're going to see margin compression and we're going to see valuations come down to that of a traditional automotive company and that's way less than Tesla's current market cap today Tesla is worth more than every us automaker combined and this is because investors believe Tesla is capable of becoming more than an automotive company absolute power corrupts absolutely Elon is already the richest person alive and if he's still going back to shareholders while the company is in turmoil it's clear that he is only in this for one person himself that and measured against the fact that Elon is a part-time CEO at Tesla makes me come to the conclusion that there is way too much risk with no pilot on the plane for me to add to my position in Tesla I'd need to see Elon either removed as CEO there is a really wide bench at Tesla this isn't as crazy as it sounds or at the very least recommit to Tesla's mission of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy not accelerate his pocketbook what I'm trying to say here is that Tesla has a governance problem it's clear given his compensation package which was struck down by a Delaware judge albeit in my opinion unfairly but it's clear that he has a board of yes men who are not interested in their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders they should not tolerate him threatening the company like that and so if the board of directors aren't going to hold up their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders then it's on us as shareholders and that's a big thing of what flank is trying to do our mission at flank is to tangibly reduce the wealth Gap by empowering individual investors and restoring stakeholder capitalism we as the owners of the company should not tolerate this directionally I like where the company is headed I really like the fact that they reaffirmed their commitment to the model too this will help Stave off competition from byd and make the dream of a robo taxi Fleet more possible than ever it's really hard to bet against Elon and I'm not selling my shares of Tesla just yet but I am an unhappy shareholder nor am I shorting the stock but as a buffet style investor I care too much about the leader at the helm to increase my position in the company I do not like our CE CEO is threatening us okay that was a lot that's all for this video if you liked it please like And subscribe we'll catch you next time
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