저자: DavidFlanks · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 LinkedIn 글을 소개하며 현재 시장은 버블이 아니라고 봄. Dalio의 6개 버블 지표(가격 대비 전통 밸류에이션, 지속불가능 조건, 신규 진입자, 강세 심리, 레버리지, 선물 매수 정도)를 검토한 결과 대부분 과열 신호가 약하고, 빅테크(Magnificent 7)는 AI 수익 기대에 의존해 리스크가 있다고 봄. 애플 자동차 사업 철수 및 AI 발표에 대한 긍정 언급 포함.
다듬은 글
in a recent LinkedIn post billionaire investor Ray Delio answers the question are we in a stock market bubble we'll go through that article piece by piece in a moment but first it's been a big week in the markets Apple teased at their most recent shareholder meeting that quote later this year look forward to sharing with you one of the ways we will break new ground in generative AI another technology that we believe can redefine the future they also hinted these generative AI measures will come out this year this also explains the reason why they closed out their Apple car apple is one of my largest Holdings and I could not be more happy about this news automobile manufacturing is a low margin business period Apple stock is down 9% since the start of this year but it's still up 11% from a year ago open AI also fired back at Elon Musk in an open letter this is a fun read if you want to check it out I'll make sure to link it in the description below I'm eagerly awaiting the war between the stands of Elon Musk and the stands of Sam Alman anyway back to Ray Delio's letter in this letter he answers the question are we currently in a stock market bubble he starts off the article by describing how he identifies a bubble and he gives six metrics to Define that those six points are high prices relative to traditional measures of valuation we've seen this one before unsustainable conditions basically meaning that growth levels cannot be sustained by economic factors New Market entrance this is also called the Sho shine boy sentiment which is a funny anecdote that that was actually Joseph Kennedy's JFK's father a really broad bullet sentiment a high percentage of purchases being financed by debt eg a lot of Leverage and a large bet being placed on Ford and speculative purchases and he kind of answers the question right away he says right in the first paragraph that the market doesn't look very bubbly to him and Ray Delio has credibility here back in 2008 his peer Alpha fund almost Rose 10% while the rest of the market crumbled next he calls out the elephant in the room he mentions that the Magnificent 7 does look a bit froy and that the market is betting that generative AI will bring a lot of Revenue in for these companies and if that doesn't work out they're going to be in a little bit of trouble he then continues on to give you a full explanation of each one of those six things that he talked about the first point that he goes into is how are prices relative to traditional measures and he shows that prices relative to traditional measures have been a lot higher right before a bubble around this 100% Mark whereas currently they're only around 73% he does point out even in the Magnificent 7 that that group is in the aggregate fairly priced however he does say alphabet meta are somewhat cheap and Tesla looks expensive compared to that traditional measure of value the third Point talks about how many new buyers have entered the market in this data that he presents we're seeing new entrance come into the market at around the same rate we did during the 1990s bubble but you also have to think about how conditions have changed the markets have never been more accessible so it makes makes sense that after 2022 is drop retail investors would get scared out and now they're starting to come back in again this is the opposite of what we should be doing one of my favorite Buffet sayings is that we need to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy when the market is rising is actually the time that we should not be jumping into things we want to do the opposite I haven't been buying really at all this year he goes on to say that that retail investors continue to play an active role in this market but their level of activity has still come down from the co era highs because we have other things to do now and then uh his fourth point is how broadly bullish is sentiment currently he says that overall the market is only slightly bullish and he goes on to point out that IPO activity can also be a good indicator for seeing how active how bullish the market is in general he gives some analysis that sentiment around AI is quite bullish right now and a pretty fun metric that he uses for that is how many times AI is set on cly earnings calls this is kind of a fun way to think about uh trying to identify a bubble and the fifth point makes which is our purchase being made by high leverage actually looks pretty healthy it's probably because interest rates are high but we can see that there's not that much leverage being thrown around in the market now he does call out us household margin debt as a percentage of GDP is still relatively low compared to 2020 highs I also wonder how important it would be to look at credit card debt I've seen that that is hit all-time highs then his last point is to what extent have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases and that that's still just around the 30 38% Mark he points out is that it does look frothy for the Magnificent 7 those large tech companies are investing heavily in the AI infrastructure that would be required to further build out the data centers to build these large language models but overall he says that we're not in a in a stock market bubble which is really interesting that's all for this video thank you so much for watching please remember to like And subscribe oh
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