저자: DavidFlanks · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 구글(알파벳) 매수가 화제가 되어, 구글의 사업구조(검색·광고 매출 비중 압도적), 재무건전성(현금으로 부채 여러 번 상환 가능), AI 경쟁력 우려(오픈AI 선점 우위), 앱스토어 수수료 규제·웨이모 등 리스크를 점검하는 영상. 결론적으로 구글 기본 분석 1단계(사업 이해)를 다루며 매수 여부는 명확히 결론짓지 않음.
다듬은 글
was AI that created the opportunity for us to buy Google at an attractive price you know basically Microsoft uh and open AI had a very powerful demonstration of and a launch of a new product and then Google's kind of launch or it was a a bit of a disaster stock got crushed on the basis of you know fear that Google is way behind in Ai and and they're make you know their advertising franchise more than covered the value of the company and you got whatever they were doing in AI if you will for free billionaire activist investor Bill Amman is making some of the biggest returns of his career and the biggest driver in his concentrated portfolio is his recent position in Google in May of 2023 Bill amman's Persian Capital took its first position roughly $1 billion in Google parent alphabet since then they have doubled down on their position and have nearly doubled it to $1.8 billion and since then Google has been on an incredible run let's first understand understand pershing's reasoning for taking this position and then we'll take a look at Google and see if we think that it's still buy today back in December on a discussion on the David Rubenstein show and we only get about a minute of his analysis on Google uh which we showed majority of it in the opening clip uh this because he was pretty preoccupied with uh putting University presidents on blast but that's a different talk show for a different day but to better understand Persian capital's thought process on on this we can go into their annual report and see their investment thesis on Google in this letter and in the interview Bill mentions that in essence the market was rewarding Microsoft for their investment in open Ai and overly punishing Google for being late to the party and this is a little bit of an aside but perhaps Google has been appropriately cautious to not introduce a new set of Technology before it's ready in a recent interview with wired Google CEO suar Pai mentions that people use our search for very real questions like how much Tylenol should you give a 3-year-old that would be a really big deal if the AI hallucinated on that regardless the first thing they mention after their take on Google AI position was mentioning that Google is a dominant leader in the digital marketing space and they basically have a monopoly on search they even sum up that they have a 50% hold on global digital marketing they praise Google's Cloud offering as a top player gcp broke into profitability this year and that they expect to see margin expansion specifically so start enjoying aws's 30% they entered their position at 16 times forward earnings which for fun it's trading at 21.5 forward earnings right now okay that provided a good bit of context on why Persian Capital took their position on Google but since then the stock has popped pretty significantly so let's take a quick look at where the company stands today and see if we we want to open a position if this is your first time doing analysis with us welcome uh believe it or not there are just four steps to doing sufficient due diligence on a company these are simple but they are by no means easy first you need to understand the business and how it makes money and how it will make more money in the future this is actually the hardest step and definitely takes the longest time to complete second you need to understand the company's economic Mo or durable competitive Advantage I really enjoyed doing this step because it's fun to think about competition and various modes third you have to evaluate management you want to make sure that they are good and honest people fourth is coming up with the intrinsic value of the company and making sure you apply a margin of safety just to make sure that if your valuation was incorrect you can still expect some upside it usually takes me a couple of weeks to go through every step in this process just as when I buy a new piece of real estate or if I buy a new expensive electronic device I do a lot of research search and you would too before you buy something and it shouldn't be any different with stocks right I think this is the right way to do it if we were buying private businesses we'd be doing a ton of due diligence I've been on the buy side of private transactions and private equity and it takes months to complete due diligence and you have to throw in an army of accountants at it why wouldn't it take any longer in the public markets or with individual investors the only difference is we don't have to send in an that army of accountants in order to validate the data the SEC make sure that companies are reporting as accurately as required by the law this of course isn't perfect but that's for a different day anyway all that to say we won't be completing the four steps in this video as they take far too long but we can get through step one because I've done a lot of that work already and so let's go so to start step one and begin understanding the business and I normally start with reading the company's most recent financial report namely in their section two but I like visual layouts so I took the time to to develop this infographic that I can use to help illustrate these points you don't have to do this by any means okay this is Google's most recent annual report you can see that I've marked it up a good bit it's just something that I like to do uh and I I publish that on our Discord so if you like the information in here then feel free to check out our Discord okay to get to how the business works you want to go to the annual report which is shown here and then you want to go to part one item one and you can see that they have two major business units and the first one is Google SE and the second one is Google Cloud and all of these words and you can see kind of the the writing I've done all these paragraphs will show you what actually comprises these businesses so we'll go into the actual uh drawing now if we open up our cheat sheet here we can take all the words that were in that section and apply it here so you can see the two business units Google services and Google cloud and then this is drawn to scale so you can see that they had about $253 billion of Revenue in 2022 and you can see that almost all of it is from their Google search and then the second biggest contributor is their Google Network which is how they deliver advertisements across the web next is YouTube and then the fourth largest contributor to their revenue is other which includes their play store purchases and hardware sales and then uh Google cloud and then their other bets so that's how Google makes money once we understand how a business makes money the next step is understanding the business to make sure it's financially healthy and verify how it will continue to compound well into the future so for Financial Health I'll be honest they have a bulletproof balance sheet on their income statement I have some concerns with how they've been tracking income but that's from them investing in other bets so as expected with a blue chip Tech stock they are extremely financially healthy they could cover all debt with the current cash on hand a few times over so let's talk about their ability to continue to compound into the future I think everyone knows where this conversation is going to head and it has to start with AI my own personal take is that open AI has first mover advantage and that is a huge advantage in software especially because open AI is so much better than barred even a year after or anything Google has had to offer so far so until we see something really different other than a a somewhat misleading AI presentation that was actually pre-recorded we need to see more proof before we can understand that they will be able to win the AI race there's no denying it they easily have the world's greatest data set to train an AI on but we have to start seeing this proof and to see if it's big enough to deot open AI which I think will be a Monumental effort Revenue concentration especially when a company is as big as Google is is a scary thing and there's little Revenue diversification here as we saw on the infographic as they remain heavily dependent on Google Search and the state of search advertisements which many users of Google are reporting that it's getting worse because AI Bots are running around putting out way more information another thing is the legislation around their App Store basically a jury found that 33% fees on app store purchases is too high this isn't something that's too big to worry as it's less than 5% of their revenue so I'm not really worried about that but the last that could impact Google's future cash flows and I think it's really under reported is weo the global ride sharing Market is a $165 billion business and wh today is carrying passengers and driverless vehicles in California and Arizona so I'd love to hear from someone who's actually taken a ride in one of these uh please let me know at the comments if you've driven in a driverless taxi but this moonshot could be a great way for them to find and grow future cash flows perhaps perhaps if they don't Dethrone open AI but weo ends up having a huge leg up then they could still grow what do you think the next step in the analysis here would be going to their competitors Tesla is fighting hard in driverless taxi space but is not getting the industry approval to operate driverless cars and open Ai and Microsoft are formidable opponents in Ai and this would be a fun competitive analysis to look at so if these are things that you want to see let me know and I'll make another video covering the competitive strengths of Google and continuing this analysis that's all for this video uh if you enjoyed it please like And subscribe we'll see you next time
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