What ails the labor market can't be cured by lower rates, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

Yardeni는 경제지표와 실적이 견조해 시장 전망이 긍정적이라고 봄. 11~12월 산타랠리로 S&P500 약 4% 추가 상승, 7,000 도달 가능성을 제시하나 단기(1~2주) 조정 가능성도 언급. 연말 7,000, 내년 7,700(약 10% 상승) 전망. 연준의 25bp 인하는 'hawkish cut'으로 평가하며, 노동시장 문제는 구조적 요인(추방, 이민규제, AI)이라 금리 인하로 해결되지 않고 오히려 금융 불안 위험을 키운다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. All right, let's talk about the impact of trade, the Fed, and tech earnings on the market. . Ed, good morning. Good to see you. Been an interesting 20 hours along all of those fronts. You know, we've got a good test of the elements of the bull case, which are, you know, obviously AI momentum, maybe some kind of trade progress, and then a dovish Fed, which maybe is not as dovish as we thought.

02. What do you make of the market response to all that? Yeah, I mean, yesterday we had a hawkish cut in the federal funds rate because the Fed chair decided to hold back on feeding the animal spirits that are in the stock market right now. The overall economy, from what we the data we have available, still looks okay.

03. There's, you know, S&P Global puts together a flash uh purchasing managers index for manufacturing and for services, and they were actually pretty pretty strong. Weekly retail sales numbers look like they're doing quite well. And of course, the earnings numbers are the the ultimate story here. They've been really surprisingly good this year.

04. First quarter, second quarter, and now third quarter looks like it's coming in stronger than expected. Double double-digit growth rates on a year-over-year basis. And so, I think that's all very good for the market. Yeah, certainly the big picture continues to move in line with with probably what the bulls would like to see.

05. Although, I wonder just about the some of the details, right? So, the last few days, a lot more attention on how the the rally had narrowed out again. Semiconductors and some related stocks really doing most of the work. Breadth measures not that great. And then I guess the idea that maybe people had started to chase a little bit anticipating a strong finish to the year.

06. So, I guess tactically, where where do you put that? Well, I think, you know, when you look at the S&P 500 over the past 10 years and average the year-to-date percent change, what you find is that year-to-date on average we've been up 8%, and then in November, December, we clocked another 4%. So, we got up to a 12% increase.

07. And I think investors are expecting in that kind of Santa Claus rally. When I talk about a Santa Claus rally, I look at the basically November and December. And when you look at it from that perspective, maybe we'll get another 4% increase in the S&P 500, which will handily get us to 7,000 on the S&P 500.

08. But as you said, there's a potential here for I think one of your favorite words is a pullback. When things go down, that leaves a lot lots of options of how how much we can go to the downside. But I think we could have a pretty moderate pullback. My concern is sentiment is too bullish. Everybody seems to be bullish right now.

09. So, we need to take some of that froth, at least on a short-term basis, out of the market. And so, I wouldn't be surprised if for the next week or two something happens where you have a sell-off. But I think we're still going to end up the year at 7,000, and then I got 7,700, a 10% increase for next year.

10. You know, Ed, obviously we heard from the Federal Reserve yesterday and the rate cut as expected about 25 basis points. But then of course, Powell saying, "Look, December is not a far far gone conclusion." What do you make of those sentiments? Does it seem like the members of the FOMC are actually getting a little further away from one another in what they believe?

11. I I think Powell basically indicated that there was a lot of debate at this meeting. You know, he rarely characterizes the debate, which suggests that it's it's usually very much of a consensus view. But this time around, he made it quite clear that there were opposing sides, and we saw there were two dissenters, and they weren't dissenting on the same side.

12. Brainard was talking about 50 basis point cut, and the Schmidt was talking about no cut at all. So, I I think he uh gave us a good insight here that the Fed might just be locked in in in in a pause mode now, and will not cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Look, I don't really think the economy needs rate cuts.

13. I don't think the labor market Maybe the labor market seems to need it, but I don't think what ails the labor market can be cured with lower interest rates, things like deportation, stricter migration immigration, AI. All these issues are structural in nature. And I think if the Fed continues to lower rates, then they will be feeding animal spirits. In other words, they will increase the chances of financial instability.