저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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연준 금리 결정 후 12월 금리인하 불확실성이 부각됐으나, Siegel은 강세장이 둔화될 뿐 멈추지 않을 것으로 봄. 실적·가이던스·AI 서사는 양호하나 장기금리(10년물 4.10%) 상승이 투자자들의 상단을 제한할 것으로 판단. 소비 둔화와 AI발 해고, 관세 인상이 주요 리스크이며, 경기 둔화 시 연준이 인하할 것이라 신뢰. S&P500 7000 도달 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Get some insights on yesterday's Fed rate decision from Jeremy Siegel. He is chief economist at WisdomTree. He's also and Jeremy we were speaking earlier today with Roger Ferguson the former vice chair at the Fed. His take was kind of interesting on this that first of all he applauded that J Powell very firmly said that this is not a a glide path that the next rate cut may not be happening on this and he's a little concerned about the potential for stagflation here too.
What what's your takeaway? Well, you're certainly right Becky. You know, he said not only is a rate cut not a sure thing for the December meeting. He emphasized by saying far from it. Those words I I think the Dow dropped 150 points in 5 seconds after that. Um, I think my take is that this will slow down the bull market.
I don't think it's going to stop the bull market. But you know, but they are looking at strength in the economy and and basically saying you know that it's it's not a sure thing. Now we have 6 weeks. The next meeting is December 10th. I think the next 6 weeks are very important because even though it ends December 10th is 2 weeks before Christmas.
We're going to get a good idea about how the consumer is going to be reacting to a number of tariff increased prices from all the goods that they're going to buy for the holiday season and we're also going to see whether layoffs from AI accelerate or not. So I think what they're saying is I want to see that data.
And by the way whether the government opens or not and I certainly hope and by December 10th it's going to be reopened. But I think they're going to have enough data. I think they have enough alternative sources of data to determine whether there is going to be a slowdown of the of the consumer. The good news is I think the Fed has our back.
They're essentially saying if we do see a slowdown we will cut. But if we see the strength that we are seeing right now you know, you know, we're going to maybe wait another meeting and and see what happens in January. So you said you think that this slows down the bull market but doesn't stop it. Is that because you think that the market doesn't need rate cuts in order to continue to push higher.
There's enough happening on the corporate front on the economic front or do you think that eventually the Fed has to say okay we're going to give you what you want. Now I think that I mean I you know, my feeling is we should be a bit lower. But I also have always said that I don't you know, we see now the you know, the 10 year at at 410.
I never thought people were talking about the oh the 10 years going down to 375 mortgage rates are going to go down. No. I really just thought that lowering that short rate was going to normalize the term structure which means that you know, long rates are supposed to be above short rates. Now we have it fine 410.
We're going to get down to 388 on the Fed funds. Now that's narrower than usual. But you know, I never thought that the really long rate is going to do it. Listen, it's it's basically earnings earnings are are great. Guidance has been good. The AI story is still alive. But people but a lot of investors going to say okay, I'm not going to get you know, three and three quarters three and a half percent long rate.
I've got to recalibrate that and I think that that is putting a lid on it. So I do see an increase but I think a slower increase as a result of of the caution of the Fed. Mike Santoli was just with us talking about at 6900 the S&P 500 was already pretty far ahead of where most Wall Street analysts were anticipating most strategists were anticipating we'd be for the end of the year.
How about you? Yeah, well, it's even above what I am and you know, I'm pretty bullish on the stock market. It's seven you know, that 7000 looked like kind of a slam dunk. It's not a slam dunk anymore. It certainly I think can can be there and I don't think that you know, we have a market that is really vulnerable at this particular point to a big decline unless we really do see you know, the tariffs sentiment beginning to impact consumer spending.
And again, the good news is the Fed does have our backs there. They will lower if things really fall off the cliff. They will probably even go down 50 basis. I'm not predicting that. But it it's always comforting the market to know that the Fed is looking at it and is not stubborn about whether they're going to lower rates or not.
Okay. Um Jeremy if anything, what what concerns you? You know, what concerns me is again, I'm looking at what the the consumer is is doing. I mean I like what's happening at trade front. I think that that those those fears are are are are certainly being mitigated. I've always been worried cybersecurity.
You know, we talk about you know, maybe doing nuclear testing again on the military front. You know, I always thought that cybersecurity is as important as military security because our world relies so much on us being connected and I I always said the scariest thing is for America to wake up in the morning and not be able to connect to any of their accounts because of some sort of cyber attack and we have to absolutely make sure that that that is is is secure.
That that was a little more than I was uh hoping for. I'm not predicting it. I'm just saying well, you know, we need to spend money on that. I mean security today is more than just military security with with armored tanks and atomic weapons. I was talking about concerns for the market. I didn't mean concerns for the entire existential but but but but we'll take it unfortunately.
the market as far as the market's concerned. I mean I think the market concerns are are really I mean are twofold. One huge layoffs that we see from AI that really send consumer confidence down or people come away and saying hey, you know, I bought this for Christmas and it was you know, $45 and now it's $55.
I'm going to slow down my spending and we see those two reductions. Again Those those are the two little things I was talking about. I Yeah, I mean those are the two things that I think but as I say the good news is that the the Fed I think has our backs there. They they say yeah, if I see that we will absolutely lower rate on the December 10th meeting.
So you know, that's the comforting thing. The worst thing is when you have a stubborn Fed that says oh no, I believe you know, inflation is what I look at. I'm not going to look at real spending.
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