저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 투기적 대상이며 현 가격은 지속 불가능해 더 낮은 가격(약 2.3만 달러)에서 살 기회가 올 수 있다고 봄. 주제 1 - 투기 열풍: 팬데믹 이후 미국 정부가 약 5조 달러를 찍어내 일부가 투기 자금으로 흘러갔고, 그 결과 암호화폐와 테슬라 등이 과열됨. 소셜미디어 FOMO가 이를 가속. 주제 2 - 가격 과열: 비트코인은 1년간 10배 상승했으나 지속 불가능한 수준. 신규 유입이 멈추면 하락할 것이라는 가설. 주제 3 - 개인 견해: 현재는 보유하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 약 2.3만 달러 하락 시 저가 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 언급. 다만 본인은 그런 위험 감수 성향이 없다고 함. 주제 4 - 시장 신호: 과열 시장의 대표 종목(닷컴 시기의 무수익 인터넷 기업 등)을 보면, 현재는 암호화폐가 대표 종목. 대표 종목이 마지막에 꺾인다는 관점. 비트코인 하락은 일시적일 수 있으나, 정점이 이미 찍혔다면 전체 시장 전환 신호일 수 있다고 봄. 주제 5 - 리스크/조건: 정부 통화 확장이 멈추기 전까지 유동성 유입이 이어질 수 있다는 조건부 시각. 방향성은 상승·하락 모두 가능하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
In this video, I want to summarize Jeffrey Gundlach’s perspective on Bitcoin. Jeffrey Gundlach, commonly known as the Bond King, is CEO of mutual fund investment firm, DoubleLine Capital. His firm manages more than $140 billion in assets. The bond-trader extraordinaire is known for his bold calls and correctly predicted the housing crash in 2007.
I have decided to explore his perspective because I believe he has offered the most level-headed analysis of Bitcoin so far among famous investors that I have studied. In the first part of the video, I am going to share with you how Jeffrey Gundlach considers Bitcoin an speculative trade. In the second and third part, I am going to share his perspective on why Bitcoin can go either higher and lower from here depending on the US government’s monetary policies.
If you like the type of content that I provide, consider subscribing to the channel and give a thumbs up and hit the notification Bell so that you won't miss any of my future videos. Part 1: Bitcoin an object of speculation Jeffrey Gundlach believes that cryptocurrencies have become "objects of speculation," fueled in part with government stimulus money.
Since the start of the pandemic, the US government has created over $5T dollars out of thin air. As you can see in this chart, the US government debt has gone up from $22T prior to the outbreak to about $27T at the time of recording this video. Some of this printed money has made its way to the hands of people who did not need it for their immediate needs.
Therefore, they have used the money to speculate in the stock market hoping to take advantage of the big rallies including the Bitcoin run. In a recent interview, Jeffrey Gundlach said and I quote "A lot of people are just playing with this funny money. And when you give people money that they don't need, which, unfortunately, we've been doing a lot, they feel like they're playing with the house's money.
So it actually does resemble a casino to them psychologically." This trend has also been exacerbated by the fact that many traders are influenced by social media driven FOMO. Social media sites increasingly have a huge impact on how people invest and trade. Every time you browse your facebook or instagram feed, you are shown ads and posts on how people are getting rich by investing in Bitcoin and similar speculative financial instruments.
The pressure to follow along as a result of social media envy and the desire to not be left out have played a key role in exponential rallies like the one that we have seen in Bitcoin and Tesla. Part 2: Bitcoin is too expensive The cryptocurrency has charted a 10-fold rally in the past year due to the massive inflation-boosting monetary and fiscal stimulus delivered by authorities worldwide to counter the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown.
This rally has pushed the bitcoin prices to levels which are not sustainable according to Jeffrey Gundlach. The Bitcoin rally could only continue if Bitcoin could create interest and attract newcomers to join at current prices. In other words, the Bitcoin prices can go up only if new traders are lured in by the prospects of earning quick returns on their trade.
Once the interest dries up, Bitcoin prices are going to start falling off. Jeffrey Gundlach’s hypothesis is that this is exactly what has been happening with Bitcoin recently. Jeffrey Gundlach has commented recently and I quote that "I would not own Bitcoin presently. I think you'll have an opportunity to buy it at a cheaper level." He told CNBC that a drop to around $23,000 could be a good time for investors who want to increase their involvement with Bitcoin to buy the dip.
But he also said that Bitcoin is not for him, as he doesn't have that kind of risk tolerance in his DNA. Part 3: Bitcoin the last to fall The legendary investor noted that every era of "really highly valued markets" has a poster child after they've run hot for a while. In the dot-com era of the late 1990s, zero-revenue internet companies were the symbol.
He said right now, cryptocurrencies look to be the poster children. Jeffrey Gundlach commented recently and I quote: "But when you're looking at a speculative fervor, I look for the poster child to roll over last". In other words, he believes that Bitcoin has become a target for most speculators who have extra cash to invest.
As long as there is excess cash floating around, Bitcoin will be one the main instruments that the money is going to flow into. Therefore, Jeffrey Gundlach believes that Bitcoin’s rally is not over until the government is forced to stop printing money. Gundlach suggested that the downward move in bitcoin may be temporary, but he also said that if bitcoin's peak was already hit, that could be a sign the rest of the market is turning.
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