😱 L'incroyable prédiction de Larry Fink pour Bitcoin (Interview)

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결론: 래리 핑크는 비트코인을 위기 시 피난처(안전자산 이동)로 보며, 금리는 장기간 높게 유지되고 인플레이션도 지속될 것이라고 전망한다. 비트코인·크립토: 고객들의 크립토 수요가 크고, 최근 랠리는 단순 루머가 아니라 안전자산 선호(flight to quality)의 신호라고 주장한다. 영상 제작자는 2023년 10월 말 기준 비트코인 약 3.5만 달러, 연초 대비 107% 상승, 공포탐욕지수 71(2주 전 39), 블랙록 현물 ETF 신청 및 승인 기대, 2024년 반감기 전 ETF 상장 목표 등을 근거로 제시한다. 거시 금리·인플레이션: 중동 전쟁이 남부 국경 밖에 머무르면 시장 변동성은 크지 않을 것이라 본다. 금리는 장기간 높게 유지되며, 연준이 11월 휴지 후 12월에 다시 인상할 가능성을 언급한다. 국방지출 증가, 리쇼어링, 반도체법(CHIPS), IRA, 인프라법 등으로 단기 인플레이션이 지속되며, 2% 목표보다 높은 수준(약 3% 허용)에 머물 것이라 전망한다. 식품·주거비는 6~8%대 상승을 언급한다. 산업·지역 투자: 엔비디아(기술), 일라이릴리(제약), 방산주를 언급하며 기술·AI·로봇이 생산성과 미국 내 일자리를 늘릴 것이라 본다. 일본은 25년 침체에서 벗어나는 중이며 주식이 저평가되어 재조명 대상이라 한다. 인도·멕시코·베트남 등으로 중국 의존 축소 및 공급망 이전이 진행 중이며, 멕시코 GDP 성장을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 출연자 전망·리스크: 인플레 장기화, 고금리 지속, 중동·우크라이나 지정학 리스크가 주요 변수다. 영상 제작자는 블랙록의 과거 행보와 발언 변화를 비판적으로 보며, 크립토 랠리가 루머·레버리지 청산 등 과열 신호를 동반한다고 지적한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. What can I say about the situation we are currently experiencing? Well, I can't go into details, but it seems to me that what we are witnessing these days is just one example of the public's pent-up interest in crypto. We have clients all around the globe telling us that crypto is necessary. When we look at the rally we just had, we can't simply assume it was due to a mere rumor.

02. In my opinion, this rise is symptomatic of a flight to quality. With all these current issues surrounding the Israeli war and global terrorism, it seems to me that a growing number of people are turning to specific assets, whether it be gold treasury bonds or crypto, depending on how they view this flight to quality.

03. And I think crypto will play this type of role as a means of fleeing to quality. Hello everyone, today we present the translation of an interview given by BlackRock CEO Larry Finink to the American news channel Fox Business on October 17, 2023. The head of the asset manager The world's most massive asset discusses Bitcoin's upward trends, the global macroeconomic situation, and attempts to be reassuring about inflation and the war in the Middle East.

04. For Larry F, the world must rediscover its moral compass, and people must not lose hope and must continue to believe in a better future despite the inflation that severely affects them. We leave it to you to judge. The BlackRock fund is known for having supported the "firefighter pyoman" concept on an industrial scale.

05. They have mastered the art of playing both sides, whether we are talking about the ecological transition or the war in Ukraine. The champions of the ESG concept also invest tens of billions in fossil fuels without seeing any contradiction. Serge Varley, a BlackRock recruiter caught in a trap by investigative journalist James KFF's team, admitted that the war in Ukraine was good for business because it allowed, among other things, speculation on commodity prices.

06. He also boasted that he could buy a senator for 10,000. Given BlackRock's past, Larry F's about-face in describing Bitcoin as a conduit for a flight to quality, when it was a money laundering indicator just a few years ago, shouldn't surprise us. This change in rhetoric is, of course, part of the context of an impressive Bitcoin price rally, fueled by rumors of the approval of a fiduciary transfer table ( FT) likely in the first quarter of next year.

07. The market's exuberance is significant. On October 29, 2023, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which quantifies optimism in the crypto market, reached 71 out of 100, compared to 39 two weeks earlier, according to Reuters. The spark that seems to have ignited the powder keg was the Supreme Court's decision not to appeal a court ruling, considering that the SCC was wrong to reject Graycale's application to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF, according to a statement by Gary Gansler on Thursday, October 26.

08. The SCC currently has a stack of... 8 to 10 applications for a Bitcoin cash ETF. Ark Invest, BlackRock, Bitwise, Wisdom Tree, Fidelity, and Invesco are among the firms that declared themselves candidates on October 24. The CFTC commissioner stated that the market was ready for Bitcoin cash ETFs, and BlackRock's ETF was listed on the DTCC's list.

09. Overall, the rally at the end of October, based on a relatively limited amount of information, demonstrates above all the enormous amount of potential energy that the market contains. As an illustration, on October 24, the website informationwatcher.guru published the following information: Bitcoin has increased by 107% since the beginning of 2023; Bitcoin has reached the $35,000 mark; $310 million in short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours; and Microsoft's investment strategy shows a net profit of $745 million, according to analyst James Marne.

10. Technical indicators are green for Bitcoin, and BlackRock has begun the Bitcoin seeding process, which involves accumulating a portion of the underlying asset in preparation for the ETF's release. According to MNE, the goal of LaRink's fund was to have an ETF listed before the next halving, which they anticipate will be a bullish event for Bitcoin.

11. Without further ado, here is the interview with LaRink from BlackRock. As you know, my view is that if inflation remains confined to Israel's southern borders, as I believe we already expect, I don't think we'll see significant market fluctuations. Price volatility depends heavily on the oil market and how it evolves.

12. Clearly, the market is currently up, rising 350 points as we speak. Market participants are aware of the potential situation we're facing, so I think this reality is already factored in. I constantly wonder why the market is so resilient given the global terrorist threat and what's happening in Israel and Ukraine.

13. Of all the other problems we face, it seems to me that the reason is that we don't spend enough time talking about all the positive developments in the world today. When I think about technology and how it will shape and change our world, and when we think about artificial intelligence and robotics, it seems to me that they will accelerate the "near sharing" and "unsaring" movement we're seeing—that is, the relocation of businesses to the national territory or at least to neighboring countries.

14. We will be able to use these new technologies to create more jobs here in the United States, as well as more factories. There's no doubt that technology disrupts some jobs and creates new ones. I'm not claiming here that we're in a perfect situation for everyone, but I still believe there's reason to be optimistic, and it's important to talk about the reasons that lead me to this conclusion.

15. There's a deeply ingrained idea that technology will increase the value of financial assets because It increases and improves productivity. If you look at productivity in our world today, it turns out to be declining in countries with shrinking populations and demographic challenges. The role that technology can play is extremely important.

16. I know that on this television channel you spend a lot of time talking about improvements in the pharmaceutical industry and reflecting on the transformations that certain medications make possible for humanity. These innovations allow us to transform absolutely lethal diseases into chronic ones. They allow us to change the trajectory of some human lives.

17. The work being done on dementia and Alzheimer's disease, with the new class of drugs being developed to treat them, will allow us to extend patients' lives. Negativity reigns and is everywhere, and often rightly so, it's true. But it seems to me that we don't spend enough time talking about optimism and opportunities.

18. One of these negative points that we're talking about right now is inflation. Interest rates are going to stay higher for a long time. I think that in December the Fed will raise them again. Once its rates are set, even though in my opinion they will have to pause in November with what is happening in Israel in December, it is likely that they will raise them again.

19. It makes sense when you think about it. Because of global instability, we are going to spend much more money worldwide on national defense. This situation is generating inflation. We will spend much more money on reshoring and reshoring, that is to say, on relocation. This too is something that is inflationary, at least in the short term.

20. Not only are we working on these reshorings right now, but we also have the Chips and Science Act, the law that aims to promote semiconductor manufacturing and research on American soil. We also have the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. All these laws are just beginning to create new jobs and new opportunities.

21. We are going to spend more money on defense because national security has become a more urgent issue. The defense of our borders is also becoming an important issue. Moreover, this is something that is currently true in all In the regions of the world, it seems to me that in the short term, defense spending will also increase, in addition to spending on IT and artificial intelligence, all these areas are only accelerating, and this is one of the fundamental reasons why I think that inflation will last longer and be more persistent; it will not reach the level of the 70s, but it will remain at a level above the 2% target.

22. Inflation was below the 2% target, but I think they'll start tolerating a higher rate if they manage to bring it down and firmly anchor it to 3% for an extended period. That's what they 'll do. I don't think the 2% figure is magic, and in fact, in my opinion, a 3% rate is actually a better inflation rate.

23. The problem is that if we look at what's happening now, food prices continue to rise. If we look at the housing situation, we're not talking about an inflation rate of 2% or 3%, but rather 6%, 7%, or 8%. This level of price increase is causing suffering for a large number of Americans. Currently in the United States, our industries and businesses continue to transform.

24. For example, we have Nvidia in the technology sector and Lili in the pharmaceutical sector, as well as several defense companies worldwide. We just saw a global group of investors invest $23 trillion in Japan. Two weeks ago, the opportunities in Japan were breathtaking as the Japanese economy began to emerge from a chaotic 25-year period.

25. Stocks were incredibly cheap and undervalued, leading many investors to conclude that we should refocus on Japan. But there's also India and Mexico, where some of our industries have relocated. We're seeing many companies trying to reduce their dependence on China and relocating to Vietnam, India, the Philippines, and Mexico.

26. Mexico has experienced phenomenal GDP growth over the past year and a half, and many companies are setting up shop there. How can we improve the living conditions of humanity and reduce the tide of hatred and fear? We have a problem: hatred and fear are intensifying in the world today. And at BlackRock, as the world's largest pension fund, we must focus on hope.

27. Because without it, why would anyone withdraw their money from a money market fund yielding 5.5% to invest for the long term? It is therefore important to have hope and to believe in a better future; this is why I oppose sectarianism and hatred.