저자: ChamathPalihapitiya외Sacks등패널 · 외국인
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결론: 금리 피크 인식과 연준 인상 가능성 축소를 근거로 증시 우호적 전망, 단 상업용 부동산 부실은 은행 리스크로 경계. [증시·금리 전망] 미국 고용지표가 예상보다 약해 2년물·10년물 금리가 하락했고, 연준의 추가 인상 옵션이 사실상 사라졌다고 평가. 연준이 금리 인하로 갈 명분이 생기면 위험자산에 우호적이며, 지정학 리스크(우크라이나, 이스라엘-가자)도 장기적으로 시장이 할인하는 중이라고 봄. [펀드 연말 자금 요인] 뮤추얼펀드 회계연도(10월 31일) 이후 현금 보유가 제한되어 11월 초 매수세가 유입, 단기 상승 요인으로 설명. [단기 급등 종목] 일부 기업 주가가 하루 20~30% 급등한 점을 언급했으나 구체 종목 방향은 과거 설명에 가까움. [미국 상업용 부동산] 상업용 부동산 대출 약 3조 달러가 은행 장부에 액면가로 남아 있어 손상 인식 시 은행 자본 충격 우려. SF 빌딩 매각가가 평당 200~300달러 수준으로 대체원가의 10~20%에 불과, 투매 수준이라고 진단. 연준 또는 정부의 지원 프로그램 가능성 언급. [주택·중개 산업] 미국 부동산 중개수수료 담합 소송(약 18억 달러 배상 평결)과 법무부 조사로 커미션 공유 구조가 흔들릴 수 있다고 봄. 질로우·컴퍼스·레드핀 등 부동산 관련주 급락. [리스크] 상업용 부동산 부실 확산, 은행 장부 평가, 주택 가격 부담 지속. [출연자 전망] 증시 단기 긍정, 상업용 부동산과 은행 리스크는 부정적.
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they burned $8 billion of free cash flow in since Q4 of 2019 $8 billion of free cash there's no question that that we work has been a capital destruction machine that being said I actually think that some private Equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune I agree with that too because out of those 777 locations a lot of them are good locations and have good tendency they probably generate good Revenue the problem is that the leases are just bad and bankruptcy gives you the power to break those leases or renegotiate them US Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after key employment data came in cooler than economists anticipated the yield on the 2-year treasury slid by more than 13 basis points to 4.84 one% meanwhile the 10-year treasury yield was down by nine basis points to 4577 per.
throughout the week The Benchmark treasury yield has come off recent Highs at a time sought trade above the 5% Mark nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October while economists Paul by Dow Jones expected an increase of 170,000 the unemployment rate Rose to 3.9% slightly higher than the steady 3.8% forecast meanwhile average hourly earnings increased 0.2% on the month hourly earnings a key measure for the expected direction of inflation were expected by economists to climb 0.3% month over month CHF P Pia the CEO of Social Capital shares his Market Outlook he reflects on how the Ukraine war is affecting the US economy and also his views on mutual funds and treasury yields now let's get into the video make sure to hit the like button subscribe and drop your comments below end of the fiscal year for mutual funds was October 31st and so there was a lot of selling going into October 31 just to capitalize tax losses and tax lost Harvest but that leaves them with a lot of cash and so starting November 1st which is day one of the new fiscal year mutual funds are not allowed to really own cash that's not why you pay them and so they're going to be active buyers so that's why in the short term the market is up but if you think about the overhang of risk that we've had right you had one Forever War and now the beginning of what potentially could be another Forever War that's definitely a dampener on market demand right and and and sentiment and investor confidence but if the story like this is true it actually takes one of those big risks off the table which is this idea that now it's like every other kind of a thing which is it's the reason we spend money there is not to win something that's winnable it's just scrap it's just typical corruption and the article says that the quter Ukrainian officials saying that people are stealing like there's no tomorrow right right so that that the US unfortunately enables in many places that's not new and so to the extent that that's now more of the status quo that's reassuring for investors because we're not talking about a war we're just talking about bleeding more money which I'm not saying is right but it's morally more acceptable than the alternative so there you have it it's generally good for markets now that leaves I think Israel Gaza as a risk and I think people and I think the markets still view that as a potential War and the longer that goes on I think that there's a very good chance that we drisk that as well as again not a war but part of that cycle between Israel and Palestine which is conflict timeout conflict timeout conflict timeout and so if what we think is now this is just a version of conflict timeout and the market Dr risks that then it's actually pretty positive for equities for startups because now the FED has a reason to actually say okay the economy is cooled off inflation is calm it looks like the markets are stable let's cut rates right let's let's reintroduce some demand into the market it's generally a good thing and if there's no reason to be risk off people will use that as a reason to be risk on what changed for the market was the fed's rhetoric and I think that they were holding on to this option that they were going to show up out of nowhere with another 25 or 50 basis point increase and I think that that's fundamentally now off the table and I think that that's really hardening for the market that's good for the market stocks are ripping a firm volunteer are up 20% today ripping ripping ripping open door ripping door Dash ripping all these companies are up 20 and 25 and 30% it's crazy it sometimes feels as if the US housing market is in a NeverEnding affordability crisis with prices continually rising and inventory shrinking the reasons have ranged from anemic construction to student loan debt to investors buying up starter homes but even as the pandemic pushed values up faster than ever cheap mortgages kept buyers in the game now a whole new affordability crisis is beginning and this time there's no obvious way out freedberg and saaks delve into the housing and real estate crisis and offer their analysis of the situation let's now hear what they have to say there's you know $3 trillion of commercial real estate loans sitting out on Commercial Banks balance sheets in the US today 3 trillion it's an insane number and we were all talking over text the other day as you guys know about this building that's being shopped and got some attention on Twitter I think the it's 115 Sansome you guys know this building I've lived in San Francisco for 20 how long have I lived there 20 some odd years now so I know this building and it's 125,000 foot building that's going to likely be fully vacant and call it 2 to three years so the guy puts it up for sale the Equity owner he puts the building up for sale and he's basically like running an auction on it and the Brokers are all saying hey it's currently at 199 bucks a square foot which translates to $25 million it'll probably get done at 300 bucks a square foot which is about $38 million for the building the problem is if you look at the debt on the building there's 53 million of debt B OFA owns that note so Bank of America in 2016 issued a $54 million note on this building if this deal closes at $39 million the equity owner who's running this auction to sell the building makes 0 all that happens is that money pays down the debt and the debt only gets 70 cents on the dollar and B OFA has to take a write down on the rest so there's a rumor that in this particular case what's happening is the equity owner of the building is putting it up for auction to show the bank hey this thing's only worth 70 cents on the dollar for you on your debt you should restructure my debt so apparently there have been a lot of building owners that have been going to their Banks and saying Hey I want to restructure my note I want to have longer payment terms I want to keep the rates lower for longer I want to have some of the debt forgiven anything they can do to get the cost of the debt down because the overhang of the debt on all these buildings is so significant these buildings cannot make money and the owners will never make money so they're like why am I even wasting my time so they have one option which is to hand the keys back to the bank and say here you go you auction it and sell it good luck and the other option is to go to the bank and say hey restructure my debt let's figure out a deal here's the problem the $3 trillion of debt that we just mentioned that's sitting on all the bank's balance sheets is all being held at par they're not discounting it at all and they're not marking it as being impaired in any way so as soon as they have to start writing the stuff down the bank's balance sheets all get impaired and so there's a real risk in the market that I don't think's been fully accounted for that we're starting to see the cracks and to chim's point this might accelerate either fed action or as I mentioned in the past I think the federal government steps in and starts to issue programs to support commercial real estate developers and owners sax I know you've been following this quite a bit you know maybe you could share your point of view and if I'm off on this in terms of how significant of a problem this is how you know how much of the three trillion of debt really is impaired and by how much should it be impaired do we think massively I think it's a huge problem if you talk to anybody any of these uh commercial real estate developers or sponsors they'll tell you many of them are just kind of hanging on by their fingernails I mean it's really ugly and you know how distressed things are when you actually look at some of these sales that same account on Twitter that you posted he's got like a a tweet storm here showing about half a dozen of these sales that have happened in the last few months and buildings are now selling for $200 to $300 a square foot in San Francisco these are buildings that could have sold for a th000 bucks a foot you know a couple of years ago and now they're selling for 2 to 300 they're replacing M cost if you were to try and recreate these buildings from scratch given how expensive it is to build in San Francisco and how complicated the entitlements process is probably be 1,200 plus a foot so these buildings are selling for 10 to 20% of their replacement cost these are fire sales realtorss have long been seen as the major mediators between buyers and sellers in the real estate sector however recent digital advancements such as a high-profile case involving real estate firm Zillow have sparked concerns about the potential disruption of the realtor sector a recent ruling in a Missouri case against the National Association of Realtors n has sent shock waves to the real estate industry the jury awarded almost $1.8 billion in Damages and found that the N had engaged in collusion to maintain High brokerage commissions this decision adds to the mounting scrutiny on how real estate agents are compensated with the justice department also investigating the commission sharing system the traditional Real Estate Commission model typically requires home sellers to pay 5% to 6% commission split between their agent and the buyer's agent if the federal government were to ban commission sharing it would disrupt a long-standing industry practice this potential shift comes at a time when the US real estate market is already facing challenges with Rising mortgage rates and sluggish home sales while this particular lawsuit does not directly influence the justice department stance that revolves around similar issues the justice department has recently taken an interest in a massach its case related to traditional commissions this involvement suggests that the regulator is actively monitoring the situation in response to the ruling real estate stocks including Zillow compass and redin experienced significant declines the combination of these lawsuits poses a significant challenge to the unique us commission system however the most substantial threat to the industry would be a case brought by the justice department potentially dismantling the commission sharing structure entirely the real estate industry faces an uncertain future as it navigates these Le legal challenges and the potential for significant reform what do you think about the housing market things are far from Rosy and there is no solution in sight let us know what you think in the comment section below also don't forget to hit the like button subscribe and turn on notifications
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