😱 L'avenir de Bitcoin et des Cryptos selon Larry Fink (Interview)

요약 보기

결론: 래리 핑크는 비트코인 ETF 신청에 낙관적이며 디지털 금 역할을 강조하지만, 금리 추가 인상과 미국 지역은행·상업용 부동산 리스크를 경고한다. 비트코인 ETF: 블랙록의 비트코인 ETF 신청은 진행이 잘 되고 있다고 보며 승인 시기는 불확실하다고 밝혔다. 암호화폐를 디지털 금으로 보고 인플레이션·통화가치 하락 헤지 수단으로 설명했다. 본인은 비트코인을 직접 보유하지 않고 뮤추얼펀드만 투자한다고 했다. 블록체인: 기술이 금융 중개 과정을 줄여 효율을 높인다고 평가하며 AI와 유사한 변화 잠재력을 언급했다. 금리 전망: 연준이 최소 두 차례, 최대 네 차례(총 100bp) 추가 인상할 수 있으며 인플레이션이 예상보다 구조적으로 지속된다고 봤다. 이에 따라 고금리가 장기화될 것으로 전망했다. 지역은행 리스크: 미국에 은행이 4,400개로 많아 일부 과잉이라고 봤다. 최근 파산 은행은 자산·부채 불일치가 원인이며, 신용위기 가능성은 있으나 대형은행 영향으로 시스템 위기는 가능성이 낮다고 했다. 상업용 부동산: 금리 상승으로 상업용 부동산 부문 스트레스가 커지고 지역은행 자산에 긴장을 줄 수 있다고 경고했다. 경기 및 정책: 인프라법·반도체법·인플레이션감축법 등 약 1조 달러 규모 재정이 이제 막 집행되기 시작했고 5%만 지출됐다고 했다. 일자리와 인프라 수요가 늘어 경기는 약화가 아니라 강화되고 있으며, 재건 관련 기업 주식은 장기적으로 좋을 것이라고 말했다. 기후·보험: 플로리다·캘리포니아 주택보험 시장에서 대형 보험사가 철수하는 등 기후 리스크가 투자 리스크라고 강조했다. ESG 용어는 좌우 진영에 의해 악용되어 더 이상 쓰지 않는다고 밝혔다. 화석연료 투자 약 3,800억 달러를 언급하며 전환기에는 전통 에너지가 여전히 필요하다고 했다. 운용 규모: 지난해 4,000억 달러 이상의 순자산이 유입되어 총 운용자산이 9조 달러를 넘었다고 밝혔다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hello everyone, today we present the translation of an interview given by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink to the American news channel Fox Business on July 6, 2023. In this excerpt, Fink discusses the recent filing of a Bitcoin ETF, presents his vision of the global economic climate, and laments the criticism of his ESG promotion policy.

02. This interview shows that the BlackRock CEO, who until now had reserved most of his media appearances for the news channel CNBC, known for its ties to the Democratic Party, is also comfortable with Fox News journalists, supposedly associated with the Republican Party in the United States and beyond.

03. The complacency towards the actions of the world's largest asset manager seems to be unanimous among the mainstream media, despite their superficial differences of opinion. We recently covered in detail the Bitcoin ETF filings by several leading asset managers in a video that we invite you to watch.

04. These news items have been Welcomed favorably by a marked rise in the price of Bitcoin, taking on the appearance of a Faustian bargain, Larry Fink's about-face, who in 2017 described Bitcoin as an index of money laundering, is not linked to an affinity for the first cryptocurrency but rather to unbridled opportunism, or even to a motivation to integrate Bitcoin into traditional finance and divert it from its original purpose.

05. It is unlikely that cypherpunks and early Bitcoiners like Adam Back or Hello Snowden will look favorably upon the creation of the Bitcoin Trust. BlackRock, with over $10 trillion in assets, is a figure the Financial Times contextualizes by noting that it corresponds to the total market capitalization of the hedge fund, private equity, and venture capital sectors combined.

06. If BlackRock were a country, it would be the third largest economy in the world by GDP, after the United States and China. Larry Fink, who has been nicknamed the most powerful man on Wall Street, is a person of rare intensity. A phlegmatic and altruistic facade, and who, according to Coin Bureau's analysis, did not find himself at the head of this empire by chance, is thanks to his extensive network, his mastery of psychological manipulation, and his strong entrepreneurial vision that allowed him to climb the Wall Street ladder at the expense of his competitors, particularly during the subprime mortgage crisis.

07. He has a strong influence on Washington legislators and on the American political apparatus as a whole; members of the Biden and Obama administrations have taken cushy jobs at BlackRock, and latent conflicts of interest also seem to exist with the Republican Party. BlackRock is now a major shareholder in almost all large American companies and many global companies.

08. In 2019, a Harvard University article estimated that the three largest asset managers, BlackRock and State Street, control 20% of the voting rights of S&P companies, a proportion that has only increased since the 1980s. This concentration of power in the hands of a small number of individuals is worrying and is manifested in particular by the proliferation of the aforementioned ESG standards.

09. In the interview, having provided these few contextual reminders, here is Larryfing's interview, which we invite you to examine critically. Welcome to Money Radar Crypto. We strive to do what will benefit our investors in the long term, and I believe we have a good track record in terms of our relationships with regulators.

10. We try to take into account all potential issues related to our filing, and although I cannot go into the details of this case, I can say that, in my opinion, the process is progressing quite well. We work closely with regulators and are attentive to their concerns to clarify any points that may arise.

11. We hope that, as in the past, our work will lead to approval sooner or later, although I have no idea exactly when that might happen; it will depend on how the process unfolds. In the specific case of Bitcoin, we firmly believe that the digitization of financial products is the future. ETFs have had their time; they were a major revolution in the financial investment industry, of which they now represent a large part.

12. We believe that the aggregation of financial assets that Bitcoin represents will be crucial. This could represent a revolution of similar magnitude if we manage to encourage it. This TF filing is an opportunity for us to do even more for our investors by giving them the ability to buy fractional assets and democratize investments by lowering minimum investment costs.

13. Over the past 10 years, we have reduced the cost of ETFs by 30%. We are striving to make these investments more accessible, and in the same way, we want to facilitate access to crypto by democratizing it and minimizing fees for investors. Currently, the spread between bid and ask prices for crypto is costly for investors and reduces their potential returns.

14. Transacting in Bitcoin currently costs a lot of money, and we hope that regulators will take this reality into consideration. Our application could democratize access to crypto for investors. We will see in the future how the process unfolds. Initially, I was quite skeptical about the usefulness of cryptocurrencies because they were heavily used for Illegal activities, but as they became more accessible, this evolved, and today crypto's role is, in many ways, a kind of digital version of gold.

15. People invest in it in the same way they invested in gold to protect themselves against inflation, against country-specific national problems, or against currency devaluation. Bitcoin, to be clear, is an international asset; it is not based on any particular currency and therefore offers people an interesting alternative.

16. BlackRock was founded on the hope that our investors are putting aside for their retirement because they believe that tomorrow will be better than today. Although I don't own Bitcoin myself—I only invest in mutual funds—I am convinced that the underlying technology is fantastic. Blockchain accelerates the exchange process by uniquely recording each transaction.

17. To put it simply, a genuine blockchain allows you to know at any time who the buyer and seller are and eliminates the need for a trusted third party. This allows to optimize traditional finance processes by eliminating certain intermediaries, which justifies our enthusiasm for this technology. It also reminds me of artificial intelligence, which also promises to improve many existing processes.

18. We recently emerged from a moderate banking crisis in the United States. We have 4,400 banks, more than any other country in the world. We believe it's fundamentally a good thing to have local banks, no doubt about that, but having 4,400 is perhaps too many in the current context. Interest rates will continue to rise.

19. I think the Federal Reserve will have to raise them at least two more times, but it could go as high as four, which would make a total of 100 basis points. Four times 25, in my opinion, inflation is more persistent and structural than we hoped, and that's why I foresee a future where interest rates will be higher.

20. This will create more stress in the commercial real estate sector, which is the largest category. The assets held by regional banks could create economic tensions. However, it's important to remember that the banks that have recently failed did not face this particular problem. In their case, the tension stemmed from the mismatch between their assets and financial liabilities.

21. Therefore, it is entirely possible that the situation could evolve into a credit crisis, even if this crisis is unlikely to be systemic because major banks are not affected. It is important to note that the current situation is rather positive, as the economy is strengthening, not weakening. The three major stimulus packages enacted last year—namely, the Infrastructure Act, the Chip Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act—are only just beginning to take effect.

22. In other words, this stimulus, which amounted to $1 trillion over several years, is only just starting to enter the economy. We have only spent 5% of this sum, so we are only at the beginning. A large number of jobs will be created, which will allow for Building and rebuilding airports, ports, and highways—these three laws will significantly increase demand in the job market.

23. We were just talking about commercial real estate, which could prove to be a problem, but the effects of this stimulus on other sectors of the economy should be extremely positive. The returns on the shares of companies involved in the country's reconstruction will be good in the long term. Our role is to work on behalf of the owners of the assets we manage.

24. These assets don't belong to us, but we are the world's largest asset manager, and we advise those who own them. We help them choose long- term solutions and thus facilitate decarbonization, which is part of the problem, by financing, for example, new technologies to continue lowering the cost of living.

25. It's true that we have over $380 billion invested in fossil fuels across about a hundred different funds. We are the world's largest investor in this area as well, which isn't a bad thing in my view. The reality is that we must continue to use traditional energy sources at the same time. While we aggressively develop new technologies to extract decarbonized energy to meet demand, this will take years.

26. The question then arises: as we reach record temperatures in certain areas of the planet, do we still have time to do this? The thing I'm focusing on, and which I believe doesn't receive enough attention, is home insurance in Florida and California. The major property and casualty insurance companies are leaving the market because they are n't allowed to raise their prices to remain profitable while the risks worsen.

27. It's likely that a large portion of Americans will soon no longer be able to afford home insurance if they live in a high-risk area. That's why I say that climate poses investment risks, and I've been talking about this for years. I no longer use the term ESG because it has unfortunately been exploited by the far left and the far right, and we can no longer discuss it in its own right.

28. Our job is to do what our Clients ask us to do what we do, and we do it very well. Despite political attacks, last year we received custody of over $400 billion in new net assets, bringing our total to over $9 trillion. More and more clients are coming to BlackRock despite all the unfair narratives that incriminate us, because we are only a trusted third party. We have strong performance with excellent results in the markets.