저자: Just-InvestToday진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 2021년 시장 대폭락을 경고하지만, 진행자는 신용잔고가 아직 역사적 고점 이하라며 버블 붕괴 가능성은 열어두되 중국 기업 하락을 저가 매수 기회로 본다. 마이클 버리 소개: 빅쇼트로 2008년 주택저당증권(MBS) 붕괴에 베팅해 큰 수익을 낸 인물로 소개됨. 그는 테슬라, 암호화폐, 인플레이션에 부정적 입장이라고 언급됨. 버리 발언 인용: 현재 시장은 역사상 최대 투기 거품이며 2008년·1929년보다 더 큰 폭락이 올 것이라는 주장. 암호화폐는 부채 기반이라 크게 하락할 것이라는 취지도 언급됨. 신용잔고 근거: 뱅크오브아메리카 자료 인용, 2021년 1월 신용잔고(마진 debt)가 신고가이며 S&P500 시총 대비 2.55%로 과거 고점(2.9%~3.07%)보다 낮아 아직 여력이 있다고 설명. 반론 근거: 시장 레버리지는 사상 최고치이며, 실업수당·정부 지원 등으로 경기 지표가 부풀려졌다는 우려가 제시됨. 목재 가격 급등락 등도 이상 신호로 언급됨. 밥 패럴 10계명: 극단은 반대 방향으로 이어지고, 대중은 고점에서 가장 많이 사고 저점에서 가장 적게 산다는 원칙 소개. 가계부채 증가와 주식 매수 확대를 이 원칙의 현상으로 해석. 전망 및 조건: 진행자는 대중이 매우 강세이므로 반대 방향이 일어날 수 있다고 봄. 다만 인플레이션·금리에는 집중하지 않고 우량 기업 매수에 집중한다고 밝힘. 중국 기업: 중국 기업들이 40~35% 하락해 섹터 차원의 폭락이 나타났다고 보며, 장기 복리 성장 가능성이 있는 JD, 바이두(BABA), PDD를 저평가로 판단해 매수했다고 언급. 리스크: 소비자 부채 급증, 정책 변화, 금리 인상 우려가 언급됨. 진행자 자신이 시장 전체 방향을 확신하지 않고 개별 기업 선택에 집중한다고 명시.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome to justin best today and today we have a good video today we're talking about michael bury and he's calling for another market crash he said this is going to be the biggest crash ever it's going to be worse than 2008 worse than 1929 whatever crash there is he's saying it's going to be the worst and let's get into it and why he thinks this guy's if you don't know who michael berry is you're living under a rock remember the big short michael bury called that uh 2007 2008 uh market crash of the house uh the house clash or the the house collapse so that's who he is he's in sign capital and he bet against all the mortgage-backed securities and he won that huge bet making millions billions of dollars so that's who michael berry is and that's why everyone listens to him for what he says because he they believe him like he called that crash was pretty that's pretty amazing so is he gonna be right again do you guys believe in what he's saying is he just talking is he just kind of like late to the party what is it let's get into it so we're gonna read the first tweet people always ask me what is going on in the markets it's simple the greatest speculative bubble of all times in all things by two orders of magnitude so guys man he is literally calling there was a there was a lot of tweets from michael bury but you go on twitter michael blurry deleted all his tweets he was tweeting so much about what was happening he was telling it was gonna be the worst crash he was saying cryptocurrency is gonna fall so so hard because a lot of it is backed by a lot of debt and that's what he was saying so michael bury is very negative on what's happening in the market today so i want to know what side are you on are you on michael bury's side that you think everything's gonna go like to hell or are you on the positive side that like this can continue going so i have two articles kind of summing it up and at the end of the video i want to know what are you guys doing i'm going to tell you what i'm doing about whatever is going on in the market so let's get into it but in this first article this article talks about how these signs of the margin that and everything going on is actually a bullish sign it's not a bearish sign so we got to remember what michael bury he was he bet against tesla he's kind of betting against cryptocurrency he's better against inflation so we understand what michael berry's view is on the inflation on interest rates on cryptocurrencies on tesla on the market in general so we know what kind of view he has but in this article is talking about this is not over this is actually a a bullish sign right now so investors uh are taking record amounts of debt to buy stocks and it's a bullish signs for the market so investors are taking on a record amount of debt to buy stocks and it's a bullish time for the market recording according to bank of america the new january high and margin that confirms the new high for the s p 500 and the margin that has more room to run higher relative to the market cap of the s p 500 so he's saying this this is not even the the beginning of the margin debt you're saying there's more margin that to be had in this market which is kind of crazy because we're already at the all-time highs and so he's saying the january high margin that represented only a 2.55 as a percentage of market cap for the s p 500 well below prior peaks of two point nine percent uh two point ninety percent to three point zero seven percent so he's just saying that the margin debt right now is not even at its highest peak compared to previous years when there is stuff going on when there's crashes so he's saying there's still a lot of room to run for this margin that factor that michael bury is calling for the crash and why it's going to crash but if you believe in that theory tell me what you guys think and then on the opposite side we have oh market leverage at an all-time high big numbers continue to show showing up in the u.s economic data partly due to the low levels of economic activity a year ago partly caused by the reopening partly caused by generosity of uncle sam so we have all of this going on right now we have uncle sam giving people money right people are not going to their jobs or they don't want to work because they're why why would you work right so companies are finding hard to get jobs we got lumber places that were soaring so commodity prices are soaring and then then it's gonna and then it like kind of crashed again so lumber prices went down through the roof so we have all this crazy action happen and then even the federal reserve came out and said that they're not going to raise interest rates until 220 uh 2023 and people are still scared of it guys so there's so much stuff happening right now in the markets creating a lot of like people going don't know where to go should we go here should we do this should do that so market valuation bob farrell was the chief stock market analyst of merrill lynch where he worked uh from the late 1940s to the early 1990s he is famous for his 10 rules for investors which are still revered today and often quoted as they appear to still be relevant here are some we think should be heated today axis in one direction will lead to the opposite access in the other direction there are no new eras excesses are never permanent the public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom when all experts and forecasts agree something else is going to happen so you can kind of see these rules kind of fulfilling right now like what people love to buy at the top and they least like you to buy the bottom and that's what you've seen there's more household debt than ever because people are buying at the top so 2020 household debt growth can chinese households serve these debts so look what happened china and the united states and this growth has been like aston astonishing like growth of debt has been going crazy so we see household debt increasing more people more households are buying stock because they see all these budget signs and that's probably not even that's not even including all the crypto and all the people buying crypto and all the debt people are using to buy crypto so we have to understand that too so this is what i want to know number nine i like this quote when all the experts forecast agree something else is going to happen so every so what way do you think people are viewing the market right now is it more bullish or more bearish i feel like all the value investors and all but i feel like we're a few and like far in between that we're all bearish on what the market's going to do so my view is skewed because all the people i talk about is bearish kind of bearish on the market but i think the masses are still very very very bullish so when people are very bullish bullish probably the opposite of that is gonna happen in my view so guys what do you think about everything that's happening right now in the market what way are you on are you on michael buryside are you on the opposite side that you think stuff is gonna continue to go up and you don't have to worry even though all the economy stuff is happening so what i'm doing right now guys i'm still not focused on what is happening right now or in inflation interest rates i am focused on buying very good sound businesses and i told you my i had another video just to put on my channel i think i think we're in a market crash for the chinese companies so every chinese company dropped down 40 35 we're literally in a market crash for that sector so i i put my money where my mouth is and bought those companies that i know are going to be strong compounders for the long run jd is under value baba is undervalued um pdd under value they're all undervalued so i think there's a market crash for all these chinese companies so guys tell me what you think how do you view this are you how are you preparing yourself so guys if you like this video like it subscribe to my channel get back to you in the next video peace
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