저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 세계적 과잉 유동성과 버블로 인해 큰 시장 붕괴가 올 가능성이 높으며, 현 시점에서는 상품(원자재)이 가장 매력적이라는 견해. 전반적 상황: 전 세계 정부와 중앙은행이 역사상 유례없는 규모로 돈을 찍고 빌려 쓰고 있으며, 이로 인해 여러 시장이 크게 상승했다고 주장. 버블 진단: 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 수준이고, 부동산(한국, 뉴질랜드 등)과 일부 주식도 버블이라고 진단. 다만 모든 주식이 버블은 아니며 아마존·삼성 같은 일부 종목은 계속 상승 중이라고 언급. 상품 선호: 은은 최고가 대비 60% 하락, 설탕 70% 하락, 원유 50% 하락 등 상품은 싸다고 평가. 상황이 좋은 자산이 다 오르는 동안 상품이 가장 선호하는 자산군이라고 밝힘. 보유 및 대응: 공매도(숏)는 하지 않았고, 중국·러시아·일본 등에 일부 주식을 보유 중. 좋은 종목이 나오면 매수할 것이라고 함. 조정 후 일시 반등(랠리)이 나오더라도 마지막 랠리일 가능성을 언급. 붕괴 시나리오: 부채가 2008년 이후 폭등했고 중국조차 부채가 많아 구제 여력이 부족하다고 주장. 통화 붕괴와 경제 붕괴가 함께 올 수 있으며, 역사상 극심한 경제 위기는 전쟁으로 이어졌다고 경고. 위기 전개 패턴: 2007년 아이슬란드 파산을 시작으로 아일랜드, 베어스턴스, 리먼브라더스 등 작은 신호가 눈덩이처럼 불어난다고 설명. 이미 시작됐을 수 있다고 봄. 사회적 함의: 큰 약세장이 오면 사회 불안과 시위, 포퓰리즘과 외국인 탓이 나타날 것이라고 경고. 이 과정에서 역사를 무시하는 지도자를 비판. 리스크: 주식은 다음 달 이후 하락 가능성, 정부 개입에 따른 일시 랠리 가능성이 있으나 장기적으로 큰 붕괴를 예상. 시점은 명확히 특정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
what comes after trillions they've already gotten into trillions which you and I never could have conceived of most people could not have conceived of but they don't want to stop so I'm wondering what's after trillions we're going to learn new languages new vocabulary here in the next year or two if they keep going the way they're going every nearly every government every Central Bank in the world has been printing huge amounts of money and borrowing spending huge amounts of money it's never happened like this in the history of the world never in recorded history we seen so much excess I'll call it excess they they think it's normal they think it's fine uh and this has caused many markets to go up a lot you know if you want to build a bridge it takes a long time but if you want to invest and you have a lot of money floating around you just go on the internet and in five seconds you can be you can invest in anything you want to and that's what's been happening and that's what's continuing to happen it there might be signs that's beginning to slow down the Chinese seem to be cutting back some not a lot well not a lot but they're cutting back they're not expanding other countries say they're cutting back and the US says oh maybe we should cut back some someday uh but in the meantime there's gigantic amounts of money floating around it's going into markets it's going into the real economy as well uh it's artificial if you see some of the things that you know the shipping business is just unbelievably hot right now because there's so much money floating around the the bad news is these things always end and the better they get the worse they get when they end and as I said we've never seen anything like this in recorded history so be worried I'm not short I haven't sold short anything but uh uh I am certainly worried as I look around the world bonds are clearly in a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world property in many places you go to Korea you go to New Zealand you go many places property certainly in a bubble stocks many stocks I mean Amazon goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day Samsung goes up every day so some stocks performing above but many stocks are still not up so it's not a complete bubble yeah so there you have stocks property bonds all in bubbles are forming bubbles the only thing that's still cheap uh Commodities silver is down 60% from its all-time high Sugar's down 70% from its all-time high oil is down 50% I mean these are not bubble numbers when you talk about big big declines historic declines U but with all the money being printed the the asset class in the world that I prefer at the moment would be Commodities because they're cheap when everything else is booming I do own stocks I do own stocks in places like China Russia Japan other places uh but I'm not rushing out to buy unless I find something really good well I I said I'm not short uh I know it's going to end badly I still if something comes good come along that's good I'll buy it uh but Adam I know this is going to end very very very badly to repeat the better it gets the worse it's going to get when it comes to an end I would suspect that when it ends we're going to have the worst bare Market in my lifetime in 2008 we had a big bare Market problem because of too much debt Adam since 2000 debt 2008 the debt everywhere skyrocketed unbelievable even China has debt now China didn't have debt 20 years ago 15 years ago but even China has a lot of debt now who's going to save us the Chinese saved us in 2009 because they start had a lot of money saved for a rainy day and they started spending it they don't have a lot of money to spend now who's going to save us North Korea North Korea doesn't have much debt that's why I say but I don't think they have enough to enough to save us because I don't think they money save for a rainy day like the Chinese do you do you have greater confidence one way or the other if this is going to end in a a debt crisis or runaway money printing or or or maybe both how do you see it well first of all I have no confidence in them you said they you the other people you were telling me have confidence that they are going to say are going to save us I have no confidence in they whoever they are I will say Adam it's a good time to be old in America America because I don't have to pay for all of this when it comes to an end my children oh my gosh the problems my children are going to run into in their lifetimes because of what these girl clowns are doing now I say it's good to be old um but you're right it's going to end someday and it's going to end badly when it when it ends uh you you said either currency collapse or economic collapse you can have both you know you can have one and then it leads to another in the 30s we had both for instance around the world and then we had War it's shooting war and that's the bad the really bad news is often in history when you have really really bad times especially worldwide it winds up in shooting Wars it certainly did after the 30s um so I it's not it's not good new I don't see good news I repeat that in 2008 and N we had horrible problems with too much debt since then the debt has gone through the roof by unbelievable amounts and I know that's going to end badly if we know what's going on we'll get worried and if we get worried we'll probably get prepared then we might survive some people came out of the 30s very rich most didn't most lost huge amounts of money but in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt nobody cared and a few months later Ireland went bankrupt some noticed few months later Bear Sterns went back now we're starting to notice and then Black Rock went went bankrupt in the big Bank in England and then eventually Leman Brothers went but well then it's on the evening news then everybody knows so my point is these things snowball and they start where we're not looking and it may have already started for all I know I've seen some small places having problems um but as I say I'm not selling short yet um because I I know how much money these guys can print uh and what I would suspect is going to happen Adam is somewhere along the line next month stocks go down in lots of places well then they're goingon to really panic because they want to keep their jobs and so they're gonna print even more money and so we'll have a rally have a rally but I would suspect that that would be the last rally uh because it's only so much I mean eventually the market is wait a minute guys we've seen this movie before we know how it ends we don't care what how much money you print um do you worry at all about the societal implications about what's going on here absolutely history is pretty clear that when you have bad times there is usually social unrest people aren't happy uh and if we do in fact have the worst bare Market of my lifetime which I don't see how we can avoid uh if and when that comes they going to be a lot of very very unhappy and angry people and one difference in now in the past is people really get angry now they think that you can't do that to me um you know in this in the 30s people were a little more disciplined a little more understanding of what was going on in the world they weren't happy there were protests there were there was some VI not much violence in the US anyway since that's what we're talking about but people were a bit more accepting of the system no Adam look out the window nobody accepts anything now you can't do that to me it's your fault it's not my fault so no we're certainly going to have social unrest certainly in the US but in other countries as well you find out what's going on if you do you'll get worried and then you'll get prepared because Adam it's very clear this history shows that when things go really wrong well history shows first of all politicians blame foreigners they always blame the foreigners because that's easy to do but then they it also leads to unhappy people and social unrest I mean one of the I guess the main lesson of History Adam is people don't learn the lessons of history I mean I could sit here and tell you all day I we had a president recently who either didn't know history or thought he was smarter than history and it didn't matter well I know history smarter than I am and I know it matters and I know it always goes that way that people get very unhappy and they look for scapegoats and then it's not good
Comments 0