저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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반도체 시장 점검 영상. TSMC 7월 매출 전년비 49.9%, 전월비 6.2% 증가로 확인. 반도체산업협회 2분기 글로벌 매출 전년비 13.3% 증가, 6월 전월비 1.9% 감소. GlobalFoundries는 웨이퍼 출하 전년비 6%, 매출 23% 증가했으나 수요 초과 공급 비중이 연초 25%에서 10%로 축소되며 둔화 신호 언급. 엔비디아는 가이던스 미제시. 장기 계약이 TSMC 매출 완충 요인이라는 분석. 명시적 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
today market there have been some recent news for example tsmc just released their july numbers and let me just say they've seen huge huge growth compared to a year ago we also have global foundries that recently reported earnings and they are sharing a bit of insight in the market and they are seeing a bit of a slowdown and i'll explain more in today's episode so with everything going around in the semiconductor market are you bearish or bullish at the moment let me know in the comments below before we take a closer look at tsmc i want to take a closer look at this article by the semiconductor industry association they did mention that the global semiconductor sales increased 13.3 in quarter two of 2022 versus a year ago this was posted on august 1st of 2022 so about a week ago if we take a closer look at this revenue chart we can see this ice uptick right now and obviously this huge growth that has happened in just the past two years a lot of investors are worried that after a huge incline we are gonna see a huge huge drop like we've seen before they also mentioned that worldwide sales for june decreased 1.9 month to month so it did seem like june was the slowdown of the kind of semiconductor market at least on the month-to-month basis now i want to take a closer look at taiwan semiconductor ticker tsmc and this is a company that reports monthly reports and they did give a similar report about a month ago when they reported their june 2022 numbers if you are enjoying the video make sure to hit the thumbs up as it helps me grow my overall audience and if you want to support a little bit more make sure to subscribe using my link at fool.com jose we can see in may tsmc reported that they made about 185 billion new taiwan dollars in revenue and that was up a nice amount compared to april but if we take a closer look at their june numbers it was 175 billion so it was down month to month very similar to what the semiconductor industry association reported with information from wsts but now fast forward into july of 2022 tsm reported a 49.9 growth year over year and a 6.2 percent month to month so i wonder when wsts reports their july 2022 numbers if it's gonna be very very similar to what taiwan reported which would be a month-to-month growth i do want to say tsmc obviously has some advantage as we saw from nvidia for example one of the main reasons that nvidia's margins are taking a hit is because they do have previous long-term purchase commitments that they need to make most of those contracts if not all of them are going to tsmc from nvidia so we can see tsmc even if this market slows down because of all these long-term agreements that they have it can overall kind of smooth out that revenue for this company so this might be tricky right because tsmc mentioned that they saw a nice growth in july of 2022.
unfortunately as investors we don't know if this growth is because there might be another bit of pickup demand happening in july or if it's just the long-term agreements helping buff out this growth for tsmc at the same time we do have companies like micron telling us that hey the upcoming quarters are not looking as well for us but obviously the memory market is a little bit different compared to just the overall semiconductor market so we can't really compare apples to apples there at the same time we also have nvidia giving us preliminary results but those preliminary results were also including the june month and we saw the june month was a bit of a slowdown i don't believe nvidia gave us an outlook for the upcoming quarter so i do want to say as an investor that's what we want to take a closer look at the outlook that they might give us i do now that i think about it and just thinking about it as i am recording this episode it is pretty interesting that nvidia didn't give us an outlook and i would say if they were seeing things were looking really bad in july and august i think they would have warned investors but if they didn't see too much of a decline in july or august or early august then the company might just be a little bit confused to where the market is going so they didn't want to give us an outlook and i do want to say that might be what might be happening at the moment regardless next i want to take a closer look at global foundries this is another huge semiconductor manufacturing they just reported earnings as well we can see wafer shipments increased six percent versus a year ago many might say hey only six percent growth but this is a company working at full capacity right now they also mentioned revenue was up 23 one of the main reasons is obviously average selling price have increased because they have such a huge demand at the moment they're able to do a little bit more pricing on their end they also showed adjusted ebitda margins were up 68 compared to the same time last year so the company is seeing some great growth i do want to say the company during their owner's call mentioned a few things the first thing that they mentioned is that about at the beginning of the year their overall demand was over 25 of their total supply so they had a huge huge kind of leeway now coming in here in the middle of the year that has kind of decreased to only 10 percent above supply so i do want to say that still shows that there is a healthy demand for semiconductors at the moment but they are seeing a bit of a slow then i do want to say for a company like global foundries it might also affect their overall margins because now they won't have as much pricing power as they did before for those not familiar with global foundries i did do a video on them a few weeks ago so make sure to check it out but here they kind of give us a revenue mix by end market even though they have a big portion in smart mobile devices they do mention that this is mainly on high tier products especially in the 5g market which is not being affected as much as the overall consumer decline that the other markets in the mobile space are seeing they also mentioned huge growth in communications infrastructures and data centers and huge growth in home and industrial iot they do mention that the automotive market can continue to see big growth but right now with overall supply chain constraints it is kind of limiting that growth at the moment personal computing did take a huge decline obviously because of consumer market right now and a lot of oems kind of doing inventory control at the moment but they do mention that even though the consumer market is seeing a decline and they might not be producing as many chips for those kind of products they are using those manufacturing lines on the markets that still are seeing growth data centers communication infrastructures home and industrial iots are some of the ones they named the company also mentioned that they have numerous long-term agreements with numerous customers and that allows them to have very high visibility on upcoming revenue they did give guidance for quarter three and they are seeing a nice growth again quarter over quarter and year over year but again they do mention a bit of a slowdown in the market and this is something as semiconductor investors we have to keep a track on so i hope you guys enjoyed today's episode take care have a good day and see you next time
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