저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC(대만 반도체)는 AI 수요 수혜주로, 현재 주가 $133, 2024 EPS 컨센서스 $5.71, 현재 PER 25.6 기준 연말 적정가 약 $146. AI 성장이 기대보다 좋으면 PER 30 시 $171, 지정학 리스크로 PER 15 시 $85까지 가능성 언급. 기본 시나리오는 PER 25 유지 시 약 $142~152(10~15% 상승)로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone for investors interested i companies like Nvidia that are benefiting from that Trend I've got an interesting stock to evaluate here in Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing it's a supplier to companies like Nvidia and AMD and it too will benefit from the rising effectiveness of AI so let's take a closer look at this company and try and predict where the stock price could be one year from now by the end of of 2024 so let's get into tha I need a few pieces of information starting with its stock price right now TSM is trading at a $133 per share valuation which is up nicely so far year to date in 2024 or up from $105 per share I also ne this is the valuation let's take a closer look at why price to earnings is important the price to earnings ratio is an important Financial metric I use to determine which stock is more expensive or if a stock is too expensive let me show you this example here I have two stocks one trading at a market price of $100 and one trading at a market price of $112 the one trading at a market price of $100 has an earnings per share of $258 while the other has an earnings per share of just 11 when we look at their price to earnings ratio the one trading at a market price of 100 is trading at a price to earnings of 38.763611 in this example the one trading at a market price of 12 is actually more expensive because I'm I'm paying A4 times earnings to purchase this stock that means if the company was to pay me earnings per share every year as a dividend it would take 114 years for me to receive my money back whereas the other stock it would pay me back in 38.763611 in this equation but to simplify that's an example that shows you why a company with a market price higher can actually be cheaper than a company with a market price that's lower all right so now that you've got an understanding of this valuation metric it's currently at 25.6 right about the average valuation this stock has traded for in the last 10 years now pre 2020 it was trading at below its current valuation range and between 2020 and 2022 it was above this valuation Trend and given the rising effectiveness of AI and the demand for Semiconductor chips as a result of that Rising Effectiveness the valuation I don't think is going to go back to pre pandemic levels pre-2020 levels I'm also going to need the earnings per share forecast for Taiwan sem sem Conductor Company Wall Street analysts that are following the stock expect TSM to deliver $571 in earnings per share in 2024 remember this is coming from a collection of Wall Street analysts that follow TSM stock they present their forecasts for where they think earnings per share will be and this is a collection of those forecasts it's a consensus it brings together all of the estimates together and comes up with the consensus estimate for earnings per share some might be lower some might be higher and nobody really knows exactly what the earnings per share will be in 2024 again this is an estimate this is a forecast so it's never precise and it's all if it is precise it's random chance that it was precise they try and hit it within a range and try and get close to that earnings per share estimate all right so now that we've got some of our figures let's take a closer look and make a valuation prediction for TSM stock so earnings per share for 2024 $571 remember I got that from Wall Street analyst estimates the PE Ratio 25.6 I got that from the most recent valuation metric here so if you combine the 25.6 6 which is its current trading price with the expected 2024 earnings per share the estimated stock price would be $146 in at 2024 that would be a Mild improvement roughly 10% from its current trading price of $133 per share however if investors become more enthusiastic about TSM stock let's say the AI Trend continues to be better than expected which so far it has been despite how popular you think AI has been despite how momentus AI was in 2023 and so far in 2024 the numbers that are coming in from companies suggests that demand for AI related products and services is even better than expected even better than expected better than the already enthusiastic hype and momentum from AI so all of that is working in tsm's favor so if that happens and the PE increases to 30 then the stock price could rise to $171 per share that would be a big improvement from the current $133 per share still if things get worse and the price to earnings were to decrease to 19 that would mean the stock price could fall to $18 per share which would be a slight and moderate decrease from the current trading price of $133 per share and I'm sure investors would not be happy with that stock price in the worst case scenario I have highlighted here the PE Ratio Falls to 15 and the stock price Falls to $85 per share I will admit I don't think this scenario is very likely for TSM given all the benefits given all the rising effectiveness of AI however there is a scenario where this PE is possible and you've probably already thought about it and that's the geopolitical risk if that geopolitical risk were to manifest itself and worsen then that could really hurt tsm's value valuation and what investors will be willing to pay for this stock given those risks of those geopolitical concerns and so there is a possibility of this although I think that's a lower probability event I think more likely is that the PE Ratio stays around 25 so if I was to give my base case my best case estimate for where I think TSM stock price will be in 2024 I would say in this range here in the first range I would say between $42 per share and $152 per share for a roughly 10 to 12 to 15% increase for the rest of the year in 2024 now investors might say well that's not very exciting well it's a big company it's already increased meaningfully in 2024 and I wouldn't be surprised if my Outlook is too pessimistic if AI continues to grow faster than we're all expecting like it has done so far then that Outlook could be too pessimistic so that remains to be seen however I'm trying to give a range here and this is the range that I foresee happening for TSM stock in 2024
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