저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
Adani 그룹 관련 LIC 투자 의혹은 과장된 이야기이며 인도 인프라 투자로서 타당하다고 주장. 인도 시장은 중국 대비 단기 부진했으나 GDP 6%, 인플레 저하 등으로 회복 전망, 인도 비중 확대 중. 금은 큰 조정(10%)을 일시적으로 보고 보유 유지, 은도 금을 따라 회복 가능. Sensex 10만 목표는 앞당겨질 수 있다고 언급. 투자 테마는 소비재와 전자하드웨어(애플 인도 수출 급증).
다듬은 글
Uh first of all I'd like to uh give a season's greetings also to you from India as well. Uh there has been a you know talking about the Washington Post allegations. You know the government of India apparently they have pressured LIC and that amount has come to roughly $3.9 million. Yeah. In Adani group.
Okay. U Mark is are you able to hear us? Mark I'm going to check again. Are you able to hear us? Okay. So, we're going to we're going to have to check that line. What he was saying is he wasn't able to hear you. So, that entire question was lost. It's it's init. It's in the wind somewhere between here and Singapore or Hong Kong, one of the two.
Anyway, but let's talk in the meanwhile while we're waiting for that to be fixed. Let's talk about the markets. And we're at the what? We're at the low point of the day if I'm not mistaken. A half a percent lower for the benchmark Nifty50. and it's been quite chop and churn. Only a small part of the session you've seen green on the screen for the benchmark Nifty50.
Let's pull up the heat map actually for the Nifty50, right? Uh because that'll give you an indication. At the start of trade, you saw far more green on the screen than you're seeing right now. And uh this really is a a turn in the tide, so to speak. In fact, let's pull up the broader markets as well and see what those indicators are telling you.
Let's pull out the midcap index if we can. Uh and the small cap index down about a third of a percent for the midcap index. Let's put up the small cap index as well down about a tenth of a percent. I think Mark's back. Yeah. But overall, if you see, you know, what's happening is there is no direction.
We're trying to hit that 26,000 mark and from there it's a reversal that's taking place and that's uh the story that markets are living with right now. When will we be able to actually cross that 26,000 mark and sustain above those 26,000 levels is anyone's guess right now. But that is going to be crucial from here on.
In fact, we have Mark Mob is co-founder Mo's Capital Partners back with us. Mark, good afternoon. Hal on this side. Are you able to hear us well now? Yes, I can hear you very clearly. Great. So, Shah initially was giving you seasons greetings from India. Happy Diwali and a happy new year to you and we're looking forward to a merry Christmas soon as well.
Well, thank you very much. We're uh enjoying Diwali here in Dubai where I'm speaking to you from. Oh, great. So, so you know with everything said and done Mark you know the key question right now is what we're talking about is Washington Post's allegations where government of India has pressurized LIC to invest up to $3.9 billion in Adani group and this includes nearly $568 million done in the month of May of 2025 itself.
Now LIC has come ahead and refuted all of these allegations. What would you have to say to this? Well, I think the whole story of Donnie has been overblown. I think they're doing good work. Uh it is true being a familyoriented organization, there's no question there'll be cross shore shareholdings, that sort of thing.
But generally speaking, I think the company should get the support uh because they're so important to the infrastructure of India in addition to other companies of course. But I think it's it's fair for LIC to invest in Adani. It will help them as long as they keep an eye on the balance sheet and on the pop and law statements and the auditor statements then it should be okay.
You right to say that it's a another hit job uh which has actually fallen flat because a lot of investors which are there in Adani's bond offerings apart from an LIC of market names like ICA credential npon mutual funds HTFC uh NIF infra a lot of them so would you categorically say this that it is another hit job which is actually falling flat
yes I think so and I think you know it's important to remember an investment Nadani is really an investment in India. Now maybe some people would say that's going too far. Uh when you invest in Tata or Reliance, you're also investing in India. But in the case of Adani, it's very important because of the infrastructure work they're doing.
So I think uh it it makes sense for them to keep on doing what they're doing and those companies that are investing in Adani are doing fine. Mark, you know, we're speaking in a time when at least right now, you've had a dissipation of selling in the Indian equity markets by foreign institutions. That's what the the latest data is pointing to.
You've seen index shorts been reduced over the course of a couple of weeks from 94% to now 74%. And that is why you've seen a little bit of a pullback in the benchmark as well in in the Nifty50. the large counters are are are seeing a little bit of buying once again. Banks and IT are being preferred.
I'm just wondering what your opinion on India is at this juncture because there has clearly been an underperformance versus other major markets in the world. That's true. There has been underperformance. Part of the reason is that China has been doing quite well and you've seen some investors switch from India to China.
uh but I think that's very short-lived because at the end of the day if you look at the numbers uh India with the GDP growth of 6% which is quite amazing uh you see inflation now coming to the lowest levels it've been in a long long time so a lot of very positive signals and of course I believe they're going to come to some accommodation with the Trump administration they already have seen some cut back in purchases of oil from Russia so all these signals I mean there'll be a good recovery in the Indian market.
So we're betting on on India going forward. The problem of course is getting access to India because we're having a lot of trouble with some of our funds to get permission to invest in India because Deutsche Bank our local custodian is having trouble with the paperwork and all the rest that has to go into that.
But otherwise yes definitely India will be a place that we want to focus on. Pretty interesting mark. Uh India would be the place where the entire action takes place but uh global commodity cycles also we are seeing there is a kind of a technical pullback happening when it comes to gold and silver as well.
Are we looking at a bigger upcycle from these current levels as well when it comes to gold and silver? What would be your views on that? Yeah, we've seen a big pullback in gold. What about 10% pullback? Uh I think that's temporary. We're still betting on gold. We think gold will still be something that we got to have in our portfolios.
Uh we still hold gold and uh I think there will be recovery in gold as well of course with silver following gold. Mark one question I have last time I spoke to you told me Sensex at one lakh in the next one year. Do you think it could come in earlier? Taking the way markets are right now you're seeing an upcycle.
There is some bit of a pause but with all the factors which are aligning do you think the one lakh mark could come in earlier? Yes, it could be. Particularly when you see the markets globally moving the way they are. And of course, if you keep an eye on the S&P in the US, it's going from strength to strength.
If this continues and if the political news uh keeps on gaining ground and being positive with Trump traveling all over Asia, all these signals will be good for the markets. And yes, it's quite possible that the S6 could go a lot higher than they are now. Now you said that you're looking at India very closely Mark so therefore the question arises and a lot of our viewers will be paying attention to this as well where are you looking to deploy and if there are individual names that you're studying right now have invested in we'd love to hear them
well I can't give you individual names because we're in the process of look of investing but I can say that the consumer area is particularly interesting in India because you've got a huge consumer market per capita incomes going up uh with GDP growth the way you're looking at it uh it's going to be very very interesting to be in the consumer space so that would be one area the other area which I mentioned before is consumer hardware um in addition to consumables hardware will be good and electronics hardware um as you know I think the recent numbers indicate that uh Apple's exports from India have gone through the roof And now these electronic exports are greater than many other items in the export list.
So that is going to be a big big area of growth. Uh so we're seeking companies that are going to participate in that kind of growth. Okay. So consumption is going to be a space uh that Mark is betting big on. Thank you so much for speaking to us at NDTV Profit. It's always a pleasure.
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