저자: DanIves및진행자추정;제목·설명란기준DanIves중심—소속Wedbush는자막에명시되지않아DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 랠리는 버블이 아닌 세대적 전환이며 나스닥이 30,000까지 상승할 것이라는 주장. 팔란티어는 Q1 매출 성장률 약 85%, 영업이익률 46% 이상, 순이익 300% 이상 증가, 미국 상업 매출 133% 증가 등을 근거로 제시. 델은 AI 서버 매출이 약 20억 달러에서 올해 500억 달러로 늘고 백로그 430억 달러라고 언급. 오라클은 RPO 5,530억 달러(325% 증가), 2027년 매출 900억 달러 전망, 클라우드 매출 성장률 84%를 근거로 제시. 메모리 가격 상승으로 델 마진 압박 우려도 언급.
다듬은 글
. The skeptics called him a permabull. Dan Ives called it a 1995 moment. While the smart money spent the last 3 years bracing for a dot-com style collapse, Ives stood at the center of the storm, insisting that the AI revolution was a generational shift, not a bubble. Since late 2022, his conviction hasn't just defied the haters.
It has matured with surgical precision. Today, the Nasdaq Composite is already knocking on the door of 26,400, a staggering 75% surge from its bear market lows, leaving the bears to explain how they missed the greatest tech expansion of our time. But if you think the easy money is gone, Ives has a blunt message for you.
The haters will hate, but the Nasdaq is on a collision course with 30,000. We aren't at the end. We are in the third inning of a multi-year capex cycle, where the chip shortage is still 10 to 1 in favor of sellers. While the retail crowd is chasing yesterday's news, the institutional shift is moving from hardware to the software and infrastructure layers that are just now beginning to monetize.
The multiplier effect is real. For every $1 spent on an Nvidia chip, $8 to $10 is about to flow into the broader ecosystem. As the index prepares for its next 15% leg up, the real alpha lies in the misunderstood plays that the market hasn't yet priced for perfection. We are looking past the hype and focusing on the cold, hard cash flowing into the engines of this expansion.
Let's begin the deep dive with the company Ives calls the Messi of AI, PLTR. While the broader market seems to be caught in a tug-of-war over valuation, the underlying numbers coming out of Denver tell a story of a company that isn't just participating in the AI race, it's setting the pace. We are witnessing a massive disconnect where the business is arguably at its strongest point in history.
Yet, the stock has been testing its 52-week lows near the $130 mark. For the active investor, this gap between price and performance is where the most compelling opportunities usually hide. The most recent financial data is, quite frankly, staggering. Palantir just posted a Q1 revenue growth of nearly 85% year-over-year.
But, the real headline is the explosion in profitability. We saw operating margins surge to over 46% while net income attributable to stockholders skyrocketed by more than 300%. This dispels the long-standing myth that Palantir is just a high-cost consultancy. Instead, it proves they can scale with the efficiency of a pure software powerhouse.
The rule of 40 is a standard benchmark for software success. But, Palantir is currently operating at a rule of 145, a level of combined growth and profitability that is almost unheard of in the enterprise space. The engine behind this growth is the artificial intelligence platform, or AIP. We're seeing a total pivot in the business model as the commercial segment begins to rival their legendary government business.
US commercial revenue alone jumped 133% last quarter. Companies like AIG and GE Aerospace aren't just testing this tech, they are embedding Palantir's ontology into their core operations to prevent AI slop, that unreliable, hallucination-prone output from standard models. By providing an orchestration layer that ensures precision in highly regulated industries, Palantir has made itself mission-critical.
Looking ahead, the catalysts are massive. With a reported $1.6 trillion planned for US industrial reshoring, Palantir's warp speed software is positioned to be the operating system for the next generation of American manufacturing. When you combine that with a total contract value that has climbed to $2.4 billion and a net retention rate of 145%, you see a demand inflection point that isn't coming, it's already here.
While Palantir masters the software orchestration, we must look at the hardware titan providing the actual muscle for these models. Dell Technologies, ticker DELL. Once dismissed by many as a legacy PC maker, the current data confirms it has successfully pivoted to become the indispensable backbone of the AI data center.
We are currently seeing a massive valuation surge with the stock recently hitting all-time highs near $260, a rally driven by a definitive shift in how the market views Dell's scale advantage in a world starved for compute power. The growth trajectory here is nothing short of vertical. Michael Dell recently highlighted that the company's AI server business has exploded from $2 billion to an expected $50 billion this year alone.
But the most intriguing figure isn't just the revenue, it's the record $43 billion backlog. This provides a level of revenue visibility that is rare in the hardware sector, suggesting that Dell is capturing nearly 20% of the entire global market for AI optimized servers. As agentic AI workloads move from experimental to persistent production phases, Dell's massive deployment teams, which are 10 times the size of its nearest peers, give it a structural edge in meeting this S-curve adoption.
However, the path to 30,000 isn't without its hurdles. We are currently facing a cost storm in the memory market with DDR5 and LPDDR5X prices surging as much as 80% in the second quarter of 2026. This inflationary pressure is expected to compress Dell's gross margins by 200 to 300 basis points. Yet, Dell is playing a high-stakes game of market share capture.
By leveraging its decades-long supplier relationships to secure parts that competitors simply cannot find, Dell is positioned to absorb business from rivals currently facing regulatory and governance crises. The real alpha for investors lies in the massive refresh cycle. Dell's latest 17G PowerEdge servers offer a staggering 7:1 consolidation ratio, allowing customers to replace seven older units with a single new server.
This move can slash energy costs by 65% and core licensing fees by 40%. While the stock's forward PE of 21 times suggests a premium, the underlying shift from low-margin hardware to high-value AI infrastructure indicates that Dell is no longer just selling boxes. It's selling the engine of the modern economy.
Moving from the server room to the global cloud, we close with the Renaissance play of the AI era, Oracle Corporation, ticker ORCL. For decades, Oracle was the steady, perhaps even boring, database provider for the Fortune 500. But the data from the first half of 2026 confirms that Oracle has successfully transformed into a hypergrowth cloud infrastructure giant.
While the stock has faced a turbulent year, retreating from its 2025 highs to find support around the $160 level, the fundamentals suggest that Oracle hasn't just bottomed, it's coiled for a massive second act that aligns perfectly with the NASDAQ 30,000 thesis. The most striking number in Oracle's arsenal is its record-shattering backlog.
Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, have skyrocketed 325% year-over-year to a mind-bending 553 billion dollars. To put that in perspective, that is roughly eight times Oracle's current annualized revenue. These are signed enterprise-scale contracts. Management is projecting a surge in revenue to 90 billion dollars by fiscal year 2027, representing a 34% growth rate that rivals even the nimblest startups.
What makes the Oracle story uniquely compelling right now is how they've de-risked the CapEx fear. Investors were initially spooked by Oracle's 50 billion-dollar capital expenditure plan, but Oracle has pioneered a creative financing model where customers like OpenAI are often paying upfront for hardware or bringing their own equipment to be hosted in Oracle's data centers.
Strategically, Oracle's multi-cloud approach is the ultimate wedge into the market. By placing its databases directly inside rival clouds like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, Oracle has seen multi-cloud database revenue explode by over 500%. They are no longer forcing customers to choose between providers.
They are making Oracle the indispensable layer that sits on top of everyone else. With cloud infrastructure revenue growing at 84% and a clear roadmap to 144 billion dollars in cloud revenue by 2030, Oracle is proving that in the AI gold rush, they own the most valuable land in the digital world. The market is currently pricing Oracle at a forward P/E of 23 times, lower than its hyperscaler peers, offering an attractive entry point for those betting on the second wave of the AI expansion.
The haters will likely continue to focus on the noise, but the numbers, from Palantir's 145% retention to Dell's $43 billion backlog and Oracle's half-trillion dollar RPO, tell a different story. We are witnessing the maturation of the AI trade from speculative hype into fundamental cash-flow driven dominance.
Dan Ives' prediction of Nasdaq 30,000 isn't just a target. It's a reflection of a world being rebuilt on silicon and software. Whether you're looking for the orchestration of Palantir, the infrastructure of Dell, or the cloud scale of Oracle, the road map is clear. Stay focused on the data, ignore the skeptics, and we'll see you at the top.
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