저자: Alex · 외국인
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팔란티어 2분기 실적이 매출 6.78억달러(전분기비 7%, 전년비 27%), 미국 상업 고객 수 83%·거래 규모 152% 증가 등으로 호조였다고 설명. 조정영업이익률 37%, Rule of 40 점수 64로 SaaS 중 최상위권이라 주장. 2024년 매출가이던스를 27.4억달러로 상향. 장기 AI 시장 내 입지를 긍정 평가하며 자신의 관심종목 순위를 9위에서 Google 바로 위로 올렸다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
something big is happening at paler they're one of the best AI companies on Earth because they're building some of the most powerful AI platforms on Earth from Gotham and Foundry to Apollo and AIP but with paler stock Jumping Up by 20% after one of their best earnings calls yet top for paler stock or are their cover in this video I'll walk you through paler awesome earnings results and what I think are the most important metrics to watch I'll talk about my thoughts on paler position in the AI market now and in the long term and I'll update where paler is on my list of stocks to get rich without getting lucky which I think has done pretty well even after this most recent Market downturn anyway let's start with paler earnings paler posted record revenues of 678 million for the quarter which is up 7% quarter over quarter and 27% year over-year even better their us commercial customer count grew 133% since last quarter and a massive 83% since this time last year in fact their us commercial customer count grew by 9x over the last 3 years paler closed 123 us commercial deals this quarter which is roughly twice as many as they were closing a year ago and the combined value of those deals is up 152% from last year which means paler is locking in more and more customers each with bigger and bigger contracts on average as a result of all that growth paler us commercial Revenue grew by 55% year-over-year that's a massive difference from the 33% commercial Revenue growth that they reported less than a year ago and government revenue grew a lot as well going up by 24% for us contracts and 23% overall those numbers really excite me for two key reasons one it shows that paler doesn't need to sacrifice their government business to accelerate the growth on the commercial side which is something that was worrying investors and analysts two quarters ago when they reported just 6% Revenue growth for their US Government business for the first time in paler history the trailing 12-month revenues from US Government surpassed a billion run rate which is a clear sign that foreign and domestic governments want to work with paler more and more as the geopolitical tensions flare in parts of Asia Europe and the Middle East which isn't something you see very often for software companies let alone Pure Play AI companies and two because paler is excellent at managing their balance sheet and keeping operating expenses relatively steady their operating margins explode when their commercial and government businesses are both doing well as a result paler Gap and adjusted operating margins are at 16 and 37% respectively not bad considering paler achieved operating profitability less than 2 years ago this growth in revenue and profitability drove a 7po increase in paler already high rule of 40 score from 57 in the first quarter of this year to 64 after quarter 2 if you don't know what the rule of 40 is don't worry I've got you covered paler really only started highlighting this metric last quarter but I think it's an important one because price to earnings ratios can be very misleading for companies with high earnings growth the rule 40 says that even if a SAS company has low earnings today it could still be a good investment if its Revenue growth and profit margins add up to 40 or more pound Year's rule of 40 score is 64 since the revenues grew by 27% and their adjusted operating margin is currently 37% so the obvious next question is how good is a score of 64 well instead of guessing let's compare paler score to other SAS companies Splunk which got acquired by Cisco for $28 billion earlier this year has a score of 53 Adobe with its massive portfolio of media editing and e-commerce tools has a score of 50 crowd strike and Salesforce are both massive companies that have scores just below 40 but for opposite reasons before the whole Global it outage happened crowd strike reported 33% Revenue growth and 4.6% margins while Salesforce reported 11% Revenue growth but 20 6% margins it's worth mentioning that as a company's score goes up each point is harder to achieve than the last since that company would have to sustain very high growth rates or very high operating margins as their Market matures and competition increases over time that's why most companies either have high Revenue growth or high margins but usually not both so paler score of 64 coming from 27% Revenue growth and 37% operating margins means they're absolutely crushing it it's also worth pointing out that paler Revenue growth has been accelerating for the last four quarters growing by 17% 20% 21% and now 27% year-over-year combine that with their expanding operating margins and they could have one of the highest rule of 40 scores for years to come speaking of which last year I found out that dozens of online data Brokers were selling my personal data if you've been getting more spam phone calls texts or emails lately they might be selling yours too that's why I decided to join 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supporting the channel and for keeping my family's data safe all right paler didn't just beat expectations on revenue and earnings per share they also raised their FYE Revenue guidance from 2.68 billion to 2.74 billion a 2.2% increase may not sound like much but that brings paler Revenue guidance above analyst estimates they also raised their guidance for us commercial revenues projecting a year over-year growth rate of at least 47% as well as raising their expected adjusted operating income to $ 97 million which is a massive increase from their estimate from last quarter of $874 million and speaking of massive increases their earnings per share grew by a whopping 500% year-over-year or 80% on an adjusted basis paler performing above already aggressive expectations is why paler stock rocketed up once they they announced their earnings heck even their net dollar retention rate which measures how much more money existing customers spend with them per year increased from 111% to 114% so paler really is firing on all cylinders usually whenever I cover paler I take some time to explain what they do and what makes their software so special but I've made almost 20 videos on them at this point so I thought this time I'd share a different kind of insight which is that paler has a pretty special place in the AI market right now let me show you what I mean technology always progresses in cycles and each cycle built on everything that came before it in the 1970s we had mainframe computers and by we I really mean government agencies large Enterprises and institutions but by the late 2000s there was at least one computer in every home and every office and by 2019 everyone had computers in their pockets if you include tablets laptops desktops and data Center machines there are more computers on Earth today than there are people but that didn't happen overnight in fact the mobile internet evolved in three specific phases and Morgan Stanley research expects the AI era to follow the same Trend which is where paler comes in the rise of the mobile internet happened over a long time this chart starts in 2010 but the first iPhone came out in 2017 and Apple's App Store launched in 2008 it took 3 years for the iPhone to reach Mass Market market adoption disrupt blackberry and really usher in the era of mobile Computing the same thing is happening today we've all heard of generative AI by now but it could still be a few years before we're all using it in our day-to-day lives likewise this chart ends in 2016 but 5G didn't even start rolling out until 2018 and tons of new mobile first apps and services launched during the pandemic and while companies that build high margin software and services tend to perform the best in the long long run they're the last part of the value chain to rise that's because they need an established infrastructure to run on top of like data centers and our Edge devices and before that infrastructure can be built semiconductor companies need to build the chips that power it so the rise of the mobile internet actually took anywhere from 8 to 15 years depending on where we consider the start and the end either way chat GPT was released less than 2 years ago so we're still in the very early Innings of the AI era that's why many of my top stocks to get rich without getting lucky are chip makers like Nvidia and AMD Cloud infrastructure providers like Microsoft with Azure Amazon with AWS and Google with Google cloud and Cloud security companies like foret and poo Alto networks they really belong to the first two phases of this chart the special thing about paler is that they're one of the few companies in the third phase of this chart since they're a pure play software company that focuses on bring bringing AI to Enterprises and government agencies in Alex karp's most recent letter to shareholders he noted the unrelenting wave of demand from consumers for production ready AI systems and paler is one of only a few companies that can meet that Demand right now there are two more important metrics that I'm watching to see just how paler is meeting that demand the first is the number of organizations that are attending AIP boot camps which are Hands-On working sessions where participants can work directly with peners Engineers to build real solutions using real company data in less than a week subject matter experts and decision makers can plug in their own company's data even if it's sensitive and use AIP to build their own AI tools and workflows and they leave these boot camps with real AI use cases that are close to production ready and with enough hands-on experience to actually Implement them on top of that paler Partners can run their own boot camps which effectively makes them an extend of palente sales team which helps AIP adoption compound even faster that's why it's important to watch the number of organizations that attend these boot camps not just paler overall customer account the other important metric is paler time to Value back when I was a researcher at MIT we got to demo a lot of awesome software but we almost always came to the same conclusion switching to something new was way too costly because it would take a long time to learn it implement it and generate real value for our program sponsors which usually had tight timelines and budget requirements of their own we're talking months or even years between purchasing a piece of software and using it to its full potential while at the same time dropping whatever we were already using at full speed but paler can get past the Gatekeepers at large Enterprises and government agencies because their platforms are designed to generate a lot of data driven insights in a matter of days in their latest earnings report paler highlighted three case studies where commercial Enterprises attended AIP boot camps and signed deals in a matter of weeks even more impressive is how different these three Enterprises are a large Insurance firm a global life sciences company and a convenient store chain paler platforms are constantly expanding their total addressable Market to new verticals and adding new out-of-the-box capabilities to each all right so far I walked you through paler awesome earnings results and I highlighted what I think are the most important metrics to watch including their operating margins their rule 40 score the number of organizations attending AIP boot camps and their overall time to Value which determines if an organization is willing to switch to their platforms in the first place I also shared my thoughts on Pal's position in the AI Market as one of the very few software companies worth investing in this early in the generative AI era which should earn them a position in any long-term Tech stock portfolio and now that that we have all that context let me show you where I'm putting paler on my list of stocks me show you where paler currently sits on my stock list I still think that Microsoft is the king when it comes to implementing generative AI into Enterprise software especially with Microsoft Azure AI their deep partnership with open AI and their aqua hiring of the inflection AI team earlier this year they're well positioned for all three phases of the AI era that we discussed earlier so it would take a lot to knock Microsoft out as the top company on my list Nvidia is a very close second because they're the current king of AI hardware and I don't see that changing anytime soon they're so far ahead and moving so much faster than every other chip maker Nvidia reports earnings in a couple of weeks and if they overd deliver like they have been they're the only company that might knock Microsoft out of my number one spot on the other hand when I made this list back in December of 2023 paler started in the number nine spot because I had concerns about their overall go to market strategy those concerns are long gone and paler is proving that AIP seriously lowers the time it takes to get AI Solutions up and running across a massive total addressable Market from heavy Industries and National Security to finance and Life Sciences so I'm moving paler stock up one more spot on my list just above Google that's a huge move considering how confident I am in Google Cloud Google Chrome the Android ecosystem and all the services that they've built on top of them and how far up the list paler has already moved over the last 8 months but why I pick these stocks here's the video where I walk through it step by step
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