저자: KaterinaDaniel · 외국인
요약 보기
인텔은 1분기 데이터센터 매출 43% 급증 등 실적은 좋았지만 코로나 봉쇄로 인한 일시적 수요(화면 시간 증가)에 기댄 측면이 있다. CEO가 전 CFO라 기술 경쟁력에 의문이 있고, AMD·엔비디아 대비 성과도 낮았다. 기술적으로는 일목균형표 상 구름대 돌파 후 눌림, 월봉 상승 장악형 패턴이 나타났으나, 실업률 고점 등을 고려해 추가 하락(56·53 부근) 가능성을 보고 매수 지정가를 설정해 두었다. 중·고위험 성향에만 권하며 배당이 낮은 점을 짚었다.
다듬은 글
Is the Intel stock as good as its competition, AMD and Nvidia? There is no doubt that Intel Corporation is one of the world's largest chipmakers. They reported better than expected first quarter last week, but that probably was because of the coronavirus lockdown, which has created a surge in screen time and gaming.
Last week Intel said that their data center sales surged by 43% in its first quarter, and that this was driven by the demand for its computer processing unit. Now, if you've known me for a while, you probably know that I've been very big on chipmakers in my investment portfolio. But Intel has actually not been among my top long-term picks for a while.
My name is Katerina Daniel. I'm the founder of the Diva movement, the place to be to take control of your financial future and make your money work for you, especially if you're a mom. In Invest Diva's premium investing group or the PEG, Intel's competitors, AMD and Nvidia, have actually made us a lot more profit than the Intel stock.
So today I'm going to take a look at the Intel stock from five points of my signature Invest Diva diamond analysis, which analyzes every asset from a fundamental, technical, market sentiment, and risk tolerance points of view, and then puts all of it in the overall lens to see if it fits your unique financial goals and portfolio.
Let's start with fundamentals first, especially in comparison to Intel's biggest competitors, AMD and Nvidia. AMD and Intel both make CPUs, and Nvidia focuses on GPUs, graphics processing units. Now, Intel is also trying once again to compete in the graphics card sector as well, and has just released its new version of its Intel graphics DCH drivers.
AMD has been able to pick up their business. They created killer CPUs that are doing really, really well, right? And for consumers and for businesses and data centers and other places. AMD also makes GPUs, and they're a competitive to Nvidia. Nvidia is optimized to do AI, artificial intelligence training, so they got a very big push in AI, and they've got a software stack that goes along with it, and it's really, really good for AI applications, right?
So, they've been doing really well. AMD GPUs haven't really been doing that well. If AMD is able to improve its GPUs, they could get a really good push in terms of market share. Now, the thing that really sets these companies apart from a financial point of view is their market cap and R&D funds, where Intel is significantly larger than both AMD and Nvidia.
They have been acquiring new companies and are making some progress in GPUs as well. But the thing that I personally have a problem with when it comes to Intel's fundamentals is that its CEO, Bob Swan, is actually a former CFO. Chief financial officers, by nature, are very financially driven, and they don't really understand the technology and might stand in the way of Intel really making progress in creating good quality GPUs and CPUs that can completely outperform AMD and Nvidia.
That being said, there is obviously still opportunity with the Intel stock, so let's go and take a look at it from a technical point of view. Before we get started, make sure that you go in the comments and let me know if you are invested in Intel, AMD, Nvidia, or all of the three, why, and what are your strategies moving forward.
Also, don't forget to hit that subscribe button because I create new videos every single day. Like and share this video with your friends, and join us at the Invest Diva movement by clicking on the link in the description area, learn.investdiva.com/yes. Now, let's take a look at the Intel's price action on the charts.
I am here. I've inserted the Ichimoku Cloud, which is my go-to indicator. As you can see, the Intel price action is actually very similar to the Dow Jones price action after the COVID-19. Let's take a look. After the COVID-19 really took a hit on the US stock market, the Dow Jones dropped to these lows and then started to recover in mid-March.
We can see a similar price action in Intel, whereas the drop down started middle of February, and it bottomed out in middle of March. It actually started bottoming out a little bit earlier than the Dow Jones index, and it broke above the Ichimoku Cloud last week already. Now, when it comes to the Ichimoku Cloud, after a break above the cloud, we normally expect a pullback, which happened exactly after Intel's quarterly announcements, which is weird because they had better than expected quarterly announcements, but the price dropped.
This is probably purely based on profit taking and the market sentiment, which is also shown on the Ichimoku Cloud. Now, the future cloud is turning slightly bullish. Let's zoom out a little bit and go to the monthly chart. You'll notice that the Intel price has not yet reached the all-time highs from back in 2000.
Now, comparing this to AMD, for example, AMD has already surpassed the all-time highs of 2000, and this obviously made me feel very much better because we had AMD in our must-have for the longest time, and it gave us a much better kick in our investment than did Intel. Going back to Intel, however, right now, if you look at the monthly chart, we we do have yet another bullish indication, and that is this bullish engulfing candlestick chart pattern.
After the price tested the lows of 43 and quickly recovered in the month of April, the Intel price action has generally gone up. In the past, every time that Intel has seen a bullish engulfing, we have seen increasing gains in the coming months. But these are no ordinary times. We are still in the middle of a pandemic, and even though the markets are optimistic because we are talking about opening up the economies, it still is a catch-22.
We really don't know what's going to happen if the economies open up, how many how many people are going to die, and also, this whole Intel surge in their sales was apparently due to the increase in screen time. So, if technically, if the economy opens back up, then probably screen time is going to go back down, and gaming and gamers are going to less time to participate.
So, it's kind of a catch-22, right? In my previous videos and in my today's live premium investing group session, I talked about the reasons why I believe we are going to see yet another bearish momentum in the markets before the market really recovers. Unemployment rate in the US still is at significant highs, all-time highs, more than any other recession that we've seen.
So, the prices that we're seeing right now is probably simply reflecting the optimism based on the fact that people think the economy is going to recover rapidly, but in reality, this could take a much, much longer time. So, what does this all mean for investors? I have put Intel in my medium to high risk category simply because Intel's price has been very choppy, and while this choppiness creates a lot of good buying opportunities and selling opportunities, for somebody with low risk tolerance who doesn't want to panic every 10 seconds, this may not be the perfect growth stock.
But for those of you who do have medium to high risk tolerance, what I've considered doing, and I do have these buy limit orders on my portfolio, I've considered setting buy limit orders at these key Fibonacci retracement levels that track the recent uptrend in Intel from back in June 2019 up to the highs of February 2020.
The upper band of the Ichimoku Cloud falls perfectly on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and right now, the price is testing the 38% Fibonacci retracement level at around 59. I think there's a very high chance that we could see a revisit of 56 and even 53, which are the places that I've set my buy limit orders for a medium term.
I'm considering taking profit at below the old the recent highs of 68, and I'll keep the rest of my Intel shares longer term. Again, because Intel is not paying that high of a dividend, this is not something that I would consider for people with low risk tolerance who like to see a cash flow in their investment portfolio, and there are so many other opportunities in growth stocks category that have a higher possibility to outperform Intel in the medium term.
Now, I'd like to hear from you. Do you think Intel has what it take to outperform AMD and Nvidia in the medium and long term? Are you investing in Intel long term or medium term? Are you investing in any other chipmakers? Between AMD, Intel, and Nvidia, which one is your favorite? Hit over to the comment section and let me know.
Again, thank you so much for tuning in again today. If you'd like to learn more about my system and my approach to investment strategy development, don't forget to check out learn.investdiva.com/yes. I'm going to add the link to this in the description area of this video as well. Invest responsibly, and I'll see you again in the next Invest video. Da da da
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