저자: BrianLewis · 외국인
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결론: 영상 자체는 특정 자산의 가격 방향을 명확히 예측하지 않으며, 엘리엇 파동과 레이 달리오식 신용 사이클로 현재 시장을 '거품 이후 하락 국면의 초입'으로 해석하는 분석 모델을 소개한다. [시장 해석] 최근 주가 폭락을 단순 충격이 아니라 신용 수축 사이클의 시작으로 본다. 일본 니케이 거품 붕괴 때 반복된 이중 고점 패턴과 지지선 구조가 현재 차트와 유사하다고 주장한다. [파동 분석] 상승 고점 구간은 엘리엇 ABC 조정파로 보고, 여러 시간 단위에서 1-2-3-4-5 충격파와 ABC 조정파가 반복된다고 설명한다. 하락 구간 일부는 복잡해 보이지만 조정 패턴으로 정리 가능하다고 한다. [추세선·지지선] 2018년, 2008년 금융위기 저점, 볼커 저점까지 이어지는 장기 추세선을 제시한다. 현재 가격이 이 선을 이탈해 재시험하면 장기 약세장 시나리오가 완성된다고 본다. [시나리오] 신용 수축 사이클은 약 3~4개월 단위로 반복되며 현재는 그 초입이라는 입장이다. 약세장 지속 기간은 대공황식 급락(약 3년)부터 니케이식 장기 하락(약 20~30년)까지 열어둔다. [리스크·조건] 본인이 명시적으로 투자 조언이 아니라 모델일 뿐이라고 밝혔다. 모델이 맞는지는 추세선 이탈 여부와 신용 수축 진행에 달려 있다고 조건부로 말한다. [출연자 전망] 특정 자산에 대한 구체적 1~3개월 가격 방향은 명시하지 않았으며, 전반적으로 하락 장기 약세 시나리오를 지지하는 태도다.
다듬은 글
what's up alright so I've seen people drawing the nuttiest looking Elliot waves all over this stock market crash and I want to clear things up a little bit the waves are not that crazy the majority that waves are just simple impulse waves and simple corrective waves and this is Brian Lewis with mmt investing and things just changed so I want to look at the Ray Dalio credit cycle inside of a credit cycle thing because we have that going on for sure and also the comparison of this to the Nikkei bubble is really good because the Nikkei bubble we saw all of these double tops we saw double tops all over the Nikkei like this underneath big support levels there's doubles there's doubles doubles doubles and that is a big thing and we have the same type of support levels if you see my Japan application 3 video like all three of these support lines completely work in the Nikkei model and the tangent lines that split the waves work in the Nikkei model and just to jump here into the Elliot waves Elliot always tats that like button right now to help me out with the YouTube algorithm so the big obvious elliot wave here and I'm going to use these bull trap lines that I have set up here to model this and it is an a/b see corrective wave and this one I have seen people point out quite a bit I've seen people make a mess of this as well but this is a pretty clean ABC and here this I don't think I've ever seen anyone cleaned this up or make sense out of this and what we have here is a bunch of double top reversals we have a double a double a double a double a double and it's pretty clear that we get a one two three four five impulse wave here and that's right along a higher level well let's go let's go dig in so see this this green bowl trap one here that's the B a B C is also a one two three four five impulse wave so the B here is an impulse wave and then the B here of a larger scale a b c corrective wave is this one two three four five impulse so you get the one two three four five here on this scale of the Ray Dalio kind of weakly level cycle and the one two three four five impulse here on this bowl trap of the sort of monthly level cyclone and we'll zoom out in a second and then if you like this crazy mess of stuff here that I haven't seen anybody even attempt to do this correctly there's like yeah there's yeah whatever I mean this is this is a this is a on the on the same scale as a one two three four five impulse this is just a one two three or sorry a B C and then D it's the one two three one two three one two three one two three one two three one two three it's the corrective pattern that's the ABC corrective pattern here and then we reverse into a five wave over here so I can't I can't really dig into the the daily time scale because it's too small and crazy but but I can easily go out and repeat these patterns on the higher level here and let's do that so here we get we get a bigger ABC corrective wave and we have our 1 2 3 4 5 bolt wrap on this and if we repeat the same kind of ABC and then the corrective pattern that we get down here it's breaking the line back testing it and it's right along this line so that would just go like here a B C and then you'd get that one two three one two three one two three one two three one two three one two three Kirt consolidation pattern and then we can zoom out even farther and get the main wave that cuts this entire ABC and you can do and I don't I think the length of this might be a bit off but just for example here you get the a and then you get a B wave out to this and then a seat and that C is the long term bear market that would follow this pattern and this is the reversal point into the positive into the positive credit expansion phase so this whole thing here is our three to four month credit contraction cycle I've been talking about in almost every video and it has kind of a bouncing pattern and this is what that pattern is and this this one is pretty ugly and it doesn't land where I was kind of aiming but let's try that one again a B C I guess it would need to come down here a B C right and then you get that 1 2 3 4 2 3 once you do want to do once you 3 consolidation like that and then and then you would get the same kind of repeat here as this 1 2 3 4 5 impulse on the B part here so you get your 1 2 3 4 5 and those 3 4 5 on the impulse that is our double tops that we keep seeing on the Nikkei it's the 3 4 5 is the double top a 3 4 5 is the double top that's the Nikkei double top that we keep getting underneath these consolidation areas and then I guess if you want to play around a little bit more with it if you get in here on the on the smaller time scale in the middle of these waves you get these dead cuts and you get these back to us and these are just a it's just the that's just an ABC here ABC they're just it's just a 3 wave kind of correct a pattern in the middle of a Down movement on that scale that's like a tinier one inside of those and that is the the Ray Dalio Eliot Nikkei wave analysis that covers everything in our current and then expands about even 2 more levels to the entire backside of the bubble bear market pattern if that pattern does continue and I've been trying to track these tangents and figure out what's going on and that that double the double tops on the Nikkei really made me see the the reversal patterns are getting underneath these lines and then yeah and then I just thought I saw an Elliott Wave video that did like this this kind of sea wave here and I went okay okay I see what's going on and then yeah the Elliot waves are not that crazy except for this one consolidation pattern that we get at the bottom here is weird and it it's cool it's pretty cool I've been doing those consolidation zones on this area and that's what that is it's just the Elliott character pattern on a sea wave so that is yeah I guess so please hit the like button to help me out the YouTube algorithm this is not financial advice or trading advice this is just a model and I'm just trying to kind of track this up the backside of this bubble and I've seen people try to draw Elliot waves on this on this blow-off top on the way up it is just so funny they're just like it's a good a you see and then once you do it's just like his huge mess it makes no sense it's really funny but when you get into this credit contraction pattern the waves really pop out where you can see them I don't have examples of this from like 2018 also where the waves are just really cleaned up and you can really see them so yeah I mean that's kind of what I started this channel based on is just being able to see these wave patterns but I didn't even know what Elliot waves were when I started modeling this thing I was just thinking about mathematical derivative graphs and tangent lines like we used to do in calculus I was like this looks like wave charts though he's new in school and I started playing around with it so it's come a long way and I think we're I think we're at a good spot here bringing in a bunch of theories that all work together and we have these super super long term trend lines that go back to 2018 back to the 2008 financial crisis go back to the very bottom of that everything bubble here the Volcker bottom so as soon as we break and back to us low mageddon we get off the blow-off top and then we break and we back to us financial crisis and then when we break it back to us this Volker that really sets up the the bear market if that happens then we have the the longer-term bear market set up and that is we don't have much of a sea wave out here but yeah that's this sea wave here is just the and it won't be that steep either that's going to be a pretty pretty slow and long bear market and I don't know how much you would come down over time but but I showed you looking at several different bubble and bubble pops like the Great Depression came all the way down from the top in just three years vertically and that was crazy and then we saw in the Nikkei bubble it took 20 years to get back down to the bottom of the bear so that's kind of the time range for the backside of a bubble it could be three I guess I don't I don't know I'm talking about like central banks and whether or not you can switch into a new monetary system and how like the reason the bubble pops is because the the thing backing your monetary system has lost its ability to back look you printed too many currency units relative to the backing and here on to everything in bubble our backing is oil which has already tanked no pun intended and corporate collateral and and real estate collateral like the mortgage mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds and stuff like that but now everything and all the securities everything backing the the dollar now is now junk status and we're getting this crash and we're getting credit contraction and that's all this is it's just the monetary expansion has is just kind of reeling back in and we're getting the credit contraction cycles here off the backside so this is the beginning of the model and then the bear market man is hard to predict if it gets set up like this and we do set up the bear market then three it could be maybe this size of the level maybe for three or four years if it looks like the Great Depression like steep or it could be 30 years if it's an extended looking version of the Nikkei so that's kind of the the C wave is is questionable but but this pattern we have happening pretty well so far and we'll see if this model holds up so thank you and happy trading
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