저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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1937년 증시 폭락과 2019년 현 상황의 유사성을 근거로 레이 달리오의 경고를 소개하는 영상이다. 1929~1937년 배경: 1929년 대공황 전 주가가 상승하고 연준이 금리를 1.5%에서 6%까지 올렸으며, 1929년 10월 다우지수는 하루 13.5% 급락해 고점 대비 50% 하락했다. 이후 금리가 0%에 도달해 연준이 양적완화를 실시했고, 약 5년간 주가가 약 400% 상승했다. 1937년 폭락: 금리 정상화 시도 과정에서 주가가 1년 만에 60% 하락했고, 1929년 고점을 회복하는 데 1954년까지 약 25년이 걸렸다. 현재와의 유사점 3가지: 첫째, 2008년 금융위기와 1929년 대공황 모두 금리가 0으로 떨어져 양적완화가 이뤄졌고 주가가 크게 올랐다(과거 10년간 약 400% 상승 언급). 둘째, 두 시기 모두 부의 불평등이 심화됐다. 셋째, 불평등으로 인한 정치 양극화와 정책 변화 가능성이 있다. 달리오의 향후 전망: 장기금리는 상승해 기존 장기채 가격이 하락할 것으로 보며, 1970~1982년처럼 인플레이션 확대로 금 가격이 상승할 것으로 본다. 주식시장은 1930년대처럼 급락 후 길고 느린 하락이 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 발표자 대응 전략: 경쟁우위가 있는 우량기업 목록을 만들고 현금흐름을 추정해 매수 가격을 미리 정해 둘 것, 현금 비중을 늘려 하락장에서 저가 매수할 것, 소량의 금을 보유해 인플레이션을 헤지할 것을 제시한다. 발표자 자신은 금 보유 대신 현금 비중 확대로 헤지한다고 밝힌다. 결론: 달리오는 장기금리 상승, 금 강세, 주식시장의 장기 완만한 하락을 예상하며, 발표자는 이에 대비한 현금 확보와 우량주 선별을 권한다.
다듬은 글
I think the period that we're in reminds me very much of 1937 Ray Dalio is one of the most successful investors of all time and recently has been sending warning signals to investors about the current state of the market in today's video I'm going to be breaking down what the markets looked like in the 1930s leading up to the 1937 crash I'm also going to be explaining how the 1930s is relevant to investors today if you are investing in the stock market in 2019 then you need to understand the relationship between what is happening now and what was happening almost 90 years ago I put a ton of effort into making this video so if you do enjoy it I would very very very much appreciate it if you could hit the subscribe button or just leave a comment down below so let's start by talking about what the markets and the global economy looked like in the 1920s and 30s in 1929 the world economy collapsed in what is now known as the Great Depression the stock market rose 150 percent from 1922 to 1927 and then from 27 to 29 stock prices doubled again at this time the Federal Reserve in the United States started to see inflation picking up and began to raise interest rates in order to combat this they raised interest rates from 1.5 percent all the way up to 6 percent and at this time the US stock market started to see some cracks there were many days that had high single-digit drops followed by brief recoveries then on Monday the 28th of October 1929 the Dow Jones plummeted 13.5 percent in a single day after the smoke cleared the Dow Jones Industrial Index was down 50 percent from its September peak ultimately the dramatic decline in stock prices made people feel a lot less wealthy many people had a lot of money in the stock market and in other financial assets and when all of these came crumbling down people stopped spending money and as people stopped spending money the u.s.
entered into a long and slow painful period of depression so what happened following the Great Depression what happened in the period from 1930 to 1937 well the first thing that happened was that interest rates hit zero which meant that they were no longer an effective method of stimulating the economy which meant that the Federal Reserve then resorted to their second option of stimulus which was to print money and buy financial assets you may have heard of the term quantitative easing that is exactly what we're talking about it's the second lever of stimulation that the Federal Reserve can use in order to kick-start the economy and if you want to learn more about these levers and how the economy works then Ray Dalio actually put together a 30 minute video which is fantastic in explaining how all of this works I'll leave it down linked below so that you can check it out after you watch this video but essentially during the mid 1930s the US Federal Reserve began quantitative easing they were buying financial assets with money that they were printing and the result was that over a five year period the stock market went up almost 400 percent that's 400 percent in just a five year period 29 to 32 interest rates at zero the central banks need to buy assets they buy assets they cause that carry to 1937 after that the Federal Reserve then had to attempt to raise interest rates inflation was picking up and they needed to raise interest rates in order to get interest rates of that very low bottom of zero but as soon as they attempted to do this it was devastating for the stock market because the stock market had risen so much in such a short period of time any increase in interest rates was dramatic to the stock market and the result was that the stock market went down in 1937 by 60% in a single year in a 12-month period which is devastating and moreover since the 1929 Depression the stock market did not recover to the same level until 1954 which is a 25 year period where the stock market essentially went nowhere so now that you know about what was happening in the 1920s and 30s and 40s how is this relevant to investing today why do you need to know what is going on if you're investing in 2019 and essentially the reason why is because Ray Dalio believes that there are many similar things that are happening today that were also happening then and he actually brings up three major similarities that he can compare between back then and today the first similarity is that the 2008 global financial crisis was in many ways very similar to the 1929 Great Depression one of those major similarities is that in both cases interest rates hit zero indicating the end of the long debt cycle and essentially the Federal Reserve in both circumstances decided to do quantitative easing they decided to print money and buy financial assets and in both circumstances the stock market went up massively in the 30s it went up by about 400 percent over a five year period and over the past ten years the stock market has also gone up about four hundred percent and that led to the second similarity which was that in both circumstances there was increasing wealth inequality so essentially what happened was because the Federal Reserve printed money and purchased financial assets anyone who held financial assets massively benefited from the global financial crisis in 2008 as well as the global crash depression that occurred in 1929 and this causes a disproportionate amount of that money going towards the wealthy and an increasing amount of money hoarded by a small number of people while the rest have a relatively small amount of money and while I personally don't think that there's anything inherently wrong with a system that allows a small number of people to have more money than other people especially if they earned it legally within the rules of capitalism rising wealth inequality is something that is bad for any civilized society no matter what your position is on capitalism and the reason why wealth inequality is so bad for any civilized society is because it causes a large amount of people to be stacked up at the bottom of the system who believe that it is rigged in favor of the uber wealthy that it is rigged against them and that the only way that they can move forward is to completely dismantle capitalism which would ultimately be way more devastating so what happens next it's great to talk about what's happened in the past with hindsight but what does Dalio thing is now going to happen and how can we prepare for that so essentially Dahlia thinks that there are three major outcomes that will happen over the next few decades the first is that there will be a decrease in poor performance in the bond market and the reason why is because he believes that interest rates are going to go up from here and considering interest rates are at rock-bottom it's not a great prediction it's a it's a pretty obvious prediction to suggest that over the long term interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now and essentially what that means is that with higher interest rates it means that those newer bonds are going to offer a better return than the older bonds which means that the older bonds the 10 20 30 year bonds are going to decrease in value so that is the first effect that Dahlia sees happening over the next few decades the second effect that he believes will happen is that gold prices will rise the price of gold will go up and the reason why he thinks this is is because gold really goes up at the rate of inflation and he sees they're going to be much more inflation in the future and as a result a similar thing will happen as to what happened between 1970 and 1982 which was that the price of gold exploded as the price as inflation began to massively increase in the United States and across globally in fact as well and the final event that Ray Dalio sees happening is that the stock market will crash and will have a long and painful crash rather than a really quick one with a quick recovery as we've seen in the past he believes that it's going to be similar to what happened in the 1930s and 40s where the market went down slowly after that 60% decline which was in no way slow but after that decline the market continued to go down for many many years and as I said didn't recover to the 1929 levels for 25 years and Ray Dalio believes that this is going to happen again and he also believes that there are going to be many nations that are going to see massive political changes because of this wealth inequality there becomes this this term called political itical polarity where you have two groups of people who are tribal in their beliefs and really locked into their parties and the parties become the views of the parties become more polarized and the result is that many nations can see a massive shift in how politics is run in those countries so this is what Ray Dalio thinks is going to happen those three things bond prices are going to go down he believes that gold prices are going to go up and perform well and he thinks the stock market is going to see a long and slow decline over the next few years so how can you prepare for such a crash what can you do to prepare yourself and the first thing that I would say as a stock market investor is that you first need to have a list of really great businesses that you understand businesses that have a competitive advantage within them and that are run by a great management team and then you need to estimate how much cash you're going to get out of these businesses over the next few years and therefore you can work out what price you're willing to pay so that when prices come down you're ready to start investing and you don't get swept up in the market crash yourself and then from there you may want to hedge your bets against the market and you can do this in a couple of different ways one way is that you can hold onto more cash and that way if the market comes down you can use some of that cash and deploy it into the market and scoop up some stocks at much cheaper prices another way that you can head yourself against the stock market and against inflation is to hold a little bit of gold if you were to hold a little bit of gold and inflation was to pick up massively then Ray Dalio believes that the price of gold would also go up although that is something that I do not personally do personally I just like to hedge myself against the stock market by holding on to more cash and finally the last way that you can prepare yourself financially is by checking out some of my other content if you want to learn more about investing in the stock market and how to do it in a safe way where you're limiting your downside and massively increasing your upside then check out some of my other videos I talk about that all the time on my channel and as I said earlier if you did enjoy the video I would very much appreciate it if you could hit subscribe and if you don't want to subscribe that's fine then just leave a comment down below or leave a like or do something share it with a friend do something that interacts with the video I very much but thanks everyone for watching and I will see you guys in the next video
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